Severe WX March 21-23 2022

[warneagle]

New watch for western AL and the northeast corner of MS.

 

[StormStalker]

Already a tree down in Tuscumbia from the windy conditions way ahead of the line of storms. The tree took down some power lines and a widespread outage occurred. Tornado watch just issued as well for my area.

 

[Equus]

Watch the cell near Sumrall, MS very closely, that one looks to be going surface based and could get ugly real fast

 

[NorthGaWeather]

While none of the south MS cells are particularly mature yet, the Smith County and Covington County cells have the most promising updrafts right now. Tornadogenesis shouldn't take long once they are rooted.

 

[warneagle]

Quite a few kidney beans there along the I-59 corridor. I guess we'll see how many of them can get fully rooted to the surface but I am officially nervous now.

I'm also wondering if we might get some tail-end Charlie action like we did yesterday on the semi-discrete cells back in Louisiana.

 

[warneagle]

New tornado warning just popped south of Jackson.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Covington County, MS cell is looking much better. Inflow looks to be increasing there.

 

[warneagle]

The cell near Seminary might be the one to watch. Definitely has "the look".

 

[Chris3024]

PWS near me is reading the same in Cullman

Only 45 minutes later and we’ve creeped up to 75/59 with a ton of sunshine.

 

[brianc33710]

I think SPC has set themselves up to go high risk.

So far they haven't. I think they'll stay Mod cause of lingering uncertainties.

 

[brianc33710]

Again the rather surprising decision not to use the PDS designation for a tornado watch covering a 15 hatched MDT.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

When was the last PDS watch? I'm pretty sure last December's weren't either.

 

[SilentShadow87]

So far they haven't. I think they'll stay Mod cause of lingering uncertainties.

And as an aside, if a high risk is anything less than an "outbreak of the decade" type event, or if the risk area placement isn't 100% spot on, then they always, without exception, catch a LOT of flak from angsty weather weenies screaming that it's a complete Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency. I honestly don't blame them for not pulling the trigger on a high risk even for events like 4/12/20 and December 10.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Gotta hope this line doesn't take out DGX (or comms to it). Already seem to be some data lag issues on my Radarscope, although GR Level 3 is fine so far.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

When was the last PDS watch? I'm pretty sure last December's weren't either.

There was one across parts of KS/NE (also a 15% hatched MDT) on May 26 of last year. I remember because I chased it, and Atmospheric Anti-Climax (convergence weakened and couldn't break the cap in west-central Kansas, cells were skinny LPs, split, and died; only substantial tornado-producer was near Benkelman, NE). Not sure if there's been once since then.

 

[SilentShadow87]

How's the Attala/Holmes county cell doing? I'm having an issue with radarscope right now.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Yeah, definite data lag issues with DGX on GR Level 3 now, too. Probably due to too many of us weenies trying to access it.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Even barely 50 dbz showers are hooking (like that day, although not nearly as numerous). Shear is most definitely there.

Note meso marker and TVS. Cullman cell did that for about 15 minutes before it was warned.

 

[Justin Hindman Hindy]

Jackson is tornado warning the whole line, the one south of Jackson isn’t showing any rotation when it was warned

 

[kcyalater]

time is shortening before these isolated cells get assimilated into the qlcs

 

[brianc33710]

New watch for western AL and the northeast corner of MS.

Mobile Co isnt included despite most of it being in the Enhanced Risk area.