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Severe WX March 21-23 2022

TDS was scanned at under 300' off the ground at 2320 UTC. That was likely sayonara for KGRK.
Jeff Mangum is showing damage. The sun is out behind this line and it is vert muggy. I don't know if this cluster of storms is moving east and we are in the clear west of I-35 our there might be more development.

The Granger radar is out and may be hit. Elgin is under the gun right now

This doesn't happen here
 


DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells, thunderstorm clusters, and linear
segments have developed across the western portions of Tornado Watch
#054 over the past couple of hours, with a history of tornadoes near
Jacksboro and Bowie Texas. Storms continue to develop ahead of a
Pacific front/dryline just west of the I-35 corridor, and are
advancing east into a buoyant airmass. These storms are also
progressing toward the axis of the low-level jet, where greater
moisture and low-level shear exist (per 22z mesoanalysis). 20Z RAP
forecast soundings (valid for 22-00Z) show large, curved hodographs
downshear of the ongoing storms). As such, tornado potential is
expected to increase through the remainder of the afternoon into the
evening hours.


Of particular concern are the supercells along a line from Burnet to
Guadalupe Counties, which are tracking in an thermodynamic
environment characterized by 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Given the storm mode
and aforementioned buoyancy/shear, a heightened tornado threat may
develop. Any supercell that becomes dominant/discrete (relatively
pristine inflow) will have the greatest risk for producing strong
tornadoes, and a long-lived, long-tracked tornado cannot be
completely ruled out.
 
 
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