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Severe WX March 16th-17th, 2023

JBishopwx

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Roughly what time this afternoon can we expect things to start kicking off (if it verifies)?
What I seen from the local NWS offices is from noon to late this evening
 
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Tornado probabilities back down to 5% at the 20Z outlook. Frontal undercutting expected to remain a hindrance.

However the cell near Mineral Wells, TX is discrete, appears to be deviating a little to the right of other storms and is on a track to threaten the DFW metro, with significant large hail at the very least.

 

Austin Dawg

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My SIL, daughter, and granddaughters are just north of there in their RV in Lake Eufaula, OK. Luckily, they are north of the worst part of this. Grandma is not happy with the radar images showing her as I try to keep an eye on them.
 
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