Thank you very much. As an aside, I got to see the Kīlauea eruption in person last week!That's where the science comes in, I guess: an understanding of the underlying geology and stress fields, which must be very difficult in this complex region of terranes (scroll down to southern Alaska), subduction, volcanism, and so forth. That's probably what the models and experienced seismologists decided it was.
I often wonder how they can tell sometimes, and before the main event, whether big quakes are foreshocks on the next one coming or aftershocks of a prior big one. There's an ongoing situation in Japan that's problematical this way. Can't find the reference right now but will keep looking.
PS: This is what I mean by stress field. Most of the paper is over my head, but it tells me why the Tokyo region is rocking right now. The foreshock/aftershock reference I'm thinking of, though, concerns an area of Japan that's farther north.