That feature wasn't really forecasted to show up in a major way until the low reaches Alabama late Saturday into Sunday.
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January 23-25th Winter Wx
- Thread starter UncleJuJu98
- Start date
TVILLE96
Member
The warm nose is something I am interested to see if it changes or not.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
I'm definitely concerned about the Tupelo vicinity regarding this ice storm. We're gonna have major issues
34.3 imby on green mountain
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
somebody pointed this out and sure enough we have a 913mb low pressure, what influence does this have on the winter storm?
Psalm 148:8
Member
Courtesy of a net on another forum.. what do yall know about this model? This makes me a little bit alarmed.. lots of folks caught off guard.. he did mention it’s an outlier.. since the models don’t have a clue.. just looking for other’s thoughts.
Grand Poo Bah
Member
My hunch is the warm nose is going to be bigger than forecast and ruin a lot of people's snow day plans. Already told my friend in Nashville there's about a 50/50 chance of warm rain coming in and washing everything away. The freezing rain area sure is expanding a lot around it though. I think a lot of that will end up falling as sleet. This is going to be one hell of an ice storm. I expect there to be lots of slipping and sliding in the livestreams, and unfortunately we'll probably see a few large pile ups. Just thankful this is happening during the weekend instead of the work week.
Ummm.... I'm very astonished by that low of a pressure over Texas. I just looked at the WPC surface analysis to verify and they have it too. That's quite a low pressure especially for that area.
It's one of the WRFs. It, alongside the WRF-ARW tend to do pretty well with severe, but I'm not familiar with their winter capabilities. From the 00Z suite, HRRR presents a "lower-end" scenario for much of Georgia, but a worst-case scenario for Mississippi, while the WRF-NSSL is a worst-case scenario for Georgia. WRF-ARW is somewhere in between.
UpperLevelLOL
Member
bckhd2
Member
Well I guess we’re about 24 hours out now. Feeling as good as I can be in the heart of the Atlanta metro as it seems we may thread the needle here. Hoping for the best outcomes for all on here and especially the folks out in Mississippi and Upstate SC.
Kds86z
Member
Temp was 35F earlier dropping to 7 overnight. Wind is picking up and chilly.
CheeselandSkies
Member
That simply...can't be correct. That's the pressure of a Category 5 hurricane. The lowest recorded pressure from a non-tropical cyclone in the CONUS is approximately 955mb, seen only twice on record (in 1913 and 2010).
Anyway this storm as near as I can tell was never expected to involve exceptional cyclogenesis. Instead we are seeing the widespread winter precip that we are because of the unusual phasing and interaction of air masses.
Gail
Member
What’s your thoughts for Northern Lowndes County? We’re tethering on the edge and hoping for that warm nose. I wish it’d overtake our entire state or it’d get cold enough at every layer for just snow!
still rain in frisco tx as of this time
MikeP
Member
A crisp 34 degrees under clear skies in the Ham. Awaiting the blowtorch before Siberia shows up here Sunday afternoon....
I was thinking the same thing. Could be a mistake or error.
akt1985
Member
I’m amazed that Winter Storm Warnings extend from Albuquerque to Boston.
I'm thinking they'll be having to extend the Ice Storm Warning eastward into more of Central MS especially if the cold air moves in quicker than expected @Gail