January 23-25th Winter Wx

[Gail]

I'm thinking they'll be having to extend the Ice Storm Warning eastward into more of Central MS especially if the cold air moves in quicker than expected @Gail

That’s what I’m afraid of. We have our generator connected to our circuit breaker and supplies so I guess we’ve prepared ourselves as well as we can. I have a lot of tall pines right behind my house so I’m concerned about them!

…and there goes the extension so we’re in the ice warning now too! We’re so close to the Monroe County border, I treated it like we were anyways. Thanks for answering!

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

NAMNST is calling for 6.5 inches of precipitation in Tupelo. And Both the HRRR and RAP are showing an icepocalypse.

 

[Blountwolf]

I'm finding this personal weather station obs map handy tonight. Ground truth.

Station Map | PWSWeather

View a weather map showing satellite, radar, and weather alerts, for METAR, MADIS and Personal Weather Stations in the PWSWeather network.

www.pwsweather.com

Low 30s showing up in the northern suburbs of ATL tonight has my attention.

 

[JPWX]

I'm gonna be honest. I will be absolutely shocked if Central Alabama doesn't get more significant ice accumulations. I know it doesn't look like it currently, but I don't know. This has the overachieving vibe and look.

 

[Blountwolf]

View attachment 50261
somebody pointed this out and sure enough we have a 913mb low pressure, what influence does this have on the winter storm?

It means the guy who typo'd it is going to be allowed no influence during the next winter storm.

 

[Richardjacks]

I'm gonna be honest. I will be absolutely shocked if Central Alabama doesn't get more significant ice accumulations. I know it doesn't look like it currently, but I don't know. This has the overachieving vibe and look.

I do think you are right but also I wouldn’t be shocked if the warm/sector nose if greater than shown and the convective risk is higher…. Would could lessen the ice threat in some areas….overachieving can go both ways

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

That simply...can't be correct. That's the pressure of a Category 5 hurricane. The lowest recorded pressure from a non-tropical cyclone in the CONUS is approximately 955mb, seen only twice on record (in 1913 and 2010).

Anyway this storm as near as I can tell was never expected to involve exceptional cyclogenesis. Instead we are seeing the widespread winter precip that we are because of the unusual phasing and interaction of air masses.

I agree, if that pressure was correct, the majority of that area would be receiving absolutely unprecedented wind gusts. Has to be some sort of mistypo. That is a weird thing to imagine

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Now, that's a really weird scenario. Plenty of elevated instability aloft, but yet conditions still support winter eque conditions below. That's a problematic scenario in all sort of ways there....

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

Actually, I'm wrong. It seems to be sleeting/freezing rain. But it is snowing in Gainesville which models had showed would've been in sleet. The system may very well have took a much more south position.

 

[sak]

Actually, I'm wrong. It seems to be sleeting/freezing rain. But it is snowing in Gainesville which models had showed would've been in sleet. The system may very well have took a much more south position.

it’s gonna be a mixed bag. you will some freezing rain, sleet, and snowflakes will probably mix in at various times

 

[Ozonelayer]

Now, that's a really weird scenario. Plenty of elevated instability aloft, but yet conditions still support winter eque conditions below. That's a problematic scenario in all sort of ways there....

snow-nadoes, anyone?

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

snow-nadoes, anyone?

I'm not sure what to expect but...

https://www.researchgate.net/public...ld-Season_Supercell_Produces_an_EF1_'Snownado' (this took place in November 2012, have a read on it)

Going briefly off topic but snow supercell events do somewhat exist. Here's one that took place sorta on 11/5/24 in Northern Idaho.

I don't actually think snow-nadoes will happen but with elevated instability aloft, hail is a decent possibility from those little beans

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Here's a fascinating video that goes through the progression of a freezing rain disaster that occurred in Canada in 1998. They saw over 3 inches, but there's plenty of clips of the mayhem that occurred from half an inch up to two inches.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Here's a news story about an ice storm with max accumulations of 1.2 inches

 

[Geno]

Is this thing coming in faster than forecast? It's already across all of Northern MS and it's not due in Tuscaloosa until 3 pm tomorrow.

 

[Kds86z]

Is this thing coming in faster than forecast? It's already across all of Northern MS and it's not due in Tuscaloosa until 3 pm tomorrow.

 

[Tanner]

I'm still thinking an 11AM EST start time for my area on Sunday morning. Should be light snow for a few hours before picking up in the afternoon. I'm thinking 8-12 inches

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Is this thing coming in faster than forecast? It's already across all of Northern MS and it's not due in Tuscaloosa until 3 pm tomorrow.

Some that leading edge is virga…. It hitting ground yet . Columns have moisten up

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Smokedevil]

I can confirm that it is sleeting near tupelo. Lite sleet. Its 30 degrees also