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January 23-25th Winter Wx

HRRR now starting to get in range, so some more precision on the small scale stuff. This 5am Sat temp has my interest - shows most of us north of bham go below freezing briefly Saturday morning. Not much sign of the wedge effect at that hour - actual temps in N AL and N GA on Saturday morning will be a CAD metric to watch. ATL goes below freezing Saturday morning? That will be an uh oh - a big uh oh. That's the stronger wedge surprise scenario, that there is enough cold air coming in from the east that it gets locked in.

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By noon, WAA (the warm nose) has kicked out that cold air from N/AL, but the wedge is kicking in from the east. See how the temp in SC drops?
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NAM Nest is also in range now. Warm nose and the wedge in higher resolution, right in line with current thinking. 12 hours later, (midnight central Saturday night) the wedge has dropped surface temps over to almost the GA/AL line below freezing, giving you your CAD-driven ice in N/GA scenario.
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bckhd2 said:
Does FFC consider metro ATL north or central Georgia? I've always wondered where the dividing line is.
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Well it sort of sits in a bunch of regions. Atlanta itself is North-Central, so are immediate surrounding counties.
 
The winds and the low pressure placement depicted by the HRRR at 18Z Sat have my attention. A lot of east to west there, and not as much "up out of the gulf". This thing may end up backloaded with moisture. The low track from that point on will be a big factor to watch, IMO. What a crazy system, every model is throwing curveballs.
 
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Pulled this from Twitter. Would be a worse look for Athens and Metro ATL than earlier. The GFS continues to model strong CAD and increased ice totals for GA.
 
I hope it doesn’t get bad here in my part of Mississippi. I just got diagnosed with Flu A, strep, and an ear infection. Just what’s needed before this mess comes through. We seem to be right on the line of cold rain vs. ice. My husband is over critical services on the base which means it’ll be my sick self here alone with our kids.
 
Gail said:
I hope it doesn’t get bad here in my part of Mississippi. I just got diagnosed with Flu A, strep, and an ear infection. Just what’s needed before this mess comes through. We seem to be right on the line of cold rain vs. ice. My husband is over critical services on the base which means it’ll be my sick self here alone with our kids.
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That sounds dreadful. Get well soon!
 
The ICON is still all in on the CAD being strong enough to wrap around the mountains, leading to significant ice accumulations all the way to Chattanooga.
 

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