January 23-25th Winter Wx

[N4GK]

Not entirely sure what to believe at this point; Euro is now forecasting no freeing rain in the ATL metro, while GFS is plotting over and inch of ice.

This model stuff has gotten rather ridiculous. I think models aren’t reliable until the hour of the supposed event, and then they are still confused. Reminds me of hurricane spaghetti.

 

[N4GK]

How about we give our own forecasts and leave out the models for a day? How much wronger can we be than Data (Star Trek),on drugs?

 

[sak]

How about we give our own forecasts and leave out the models for a day? How much wronger can we be than Data (Star Trek),on drugs?

literally every forecaster bases their forecast on interpretation of the models.

it's not like people are looking at observations from ships in the pacific and temperatures in alberta and then coming up with where the 32 degree line is gonna be.

 

[Equus]

Huntsville went ice storm warning already for Colbert, Franklin, and Lauderdale

 

[Blountwolf]

I think the chance for blown forecasts is off the charts with this one, both human and computer. I expect reality to slap some folks.

 

[Mike S]

Fox 6 in Birmingham, apparently with no self-awareness, has already started showing graphics on snow in Alabama NEXT weekend. They haven't even finished completely missing this winter storm prediction and they are on to the next one. Clownshoes.

This has been an evolving situation all week, and expectations have changed daily. Let's get into the short range and see if they hit or miss.

 

[The Nino]

I can't escape the gut feeling that there will be big surprises with this system.....

 

[bckhd2]

Huntsville went ice storm warning already for Colbert, Franklin, and Lauderdale

Significant icing expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations between one
quarter of an inch to one inch.

Potentially one inch of ice. Yikes.

 

[Clancy]

Huntsville went ice storm warning already for Colbert, Franklin, and Lauderdale

Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the rest of HUN WFO's area of responsibility.

 

[N4GK]

literally every forecaster bases their forecast on interpretation of the models.

it's not like people are looking at observations from ships in the pacific and temperatures in alberta and then coming up with where the 32 degree line is gonna be.

And that’s why they are wrong 80% of the time concerning severe weather.

 

[Mike S]

And that’s why they are wrong 80% of the time concerning severe weather.

If you create a thread of nothing but your own personal weather forecasts for a specified area, I will pin the thread and leave it up through the end of May to wrap up winter and get through severe season in the southeast.

I get to keep score.

 

[N4GK]

Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the rest of HUN WFO's area of responsibility.

How is that when temps there are 49 degrees, and the ones behind them are approximately the same? I’m at a loss to understand that one. This seems to be after midnight.

 

[genie]

The euro is coming in south with a stronger CAD...

 

[pritchlaw]

If you create a thread of nothing but your own personal weather forecasts for a specified area, I will pin the thread and leave it up through the end of May to wrap up winter and get through severe season in the southeast.

I get to keep score.

You're missing the point. None of us are saying we are better at it. We are saying that the weather forecasters show these models either too far in advance and fail to point out their usual failures at that time frame other than a dismissive "this could change, but the models are in agreement" stuff, or they just start the next storm with the same models and graphic from the same source that was just wildly wrong on the current one.

 

[Bamamuscle]

How is that when temps there are 49 degrees, and the ones behind them are approximately the same? I’m at a loss to understand that one.

They are telling you that they don’t buy the model output verbatim. We’re really close to having an ice storm N of the TN river if the low tracks more S. I’m a bit nervous about this.

 

[Menawa]

North MS is gonna get a ton of freezing rain especially the Northeast part. We can kiss the potential for more snow goodbye.

18Z Euro says blowtorch warm nose... does not follow the GFS south.
View attachment 50106

Significant icing expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations between one
quarter of an inch to one inch.

Potentially one inch of ice. Yikes.

If you create a thread of nothing but your own personal weather forecasts for a specified area, I will pin the thread and leave it up through the end of May to wrap up winter and get through severe season in the southeast.

I get to keep score.

Love it! We live on a sphere with an equator of approximately 25,000 miles, that is sitting in space attached to nothing, spinning at approximately 1,000 mph and moving through space around the sun at approximately 67,000mph

 

[TVILLE96]

Oh now I’m convinced that it’s going to be Armageddon if Spann has his suspenders showing. Get that bread and milk, if there’s any left after the run on the Piggly Wigglys.

He did a funny short/video on calling his stock broker about buying bread stock before going on air with a winter forecast.

 

[Menawa]

Love it! We live on a sphere with an equator of approximately 25,000 miles, that is sitting in space attached to nothing, spinning at approximately 1,000 mph and moving through space around the sun at approximately 67,000mph

Can’t tell you exactly what you’re gonna get in your backyard

 

[Clancy]

Major expansion of the Winter Storm Watch for FFC's area, down to along a Carrollton to Macon line. Forecasts ice accumulations to .4", obviously highest amounts further north.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1243 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

GAZ030>034-041>051-053>062-072>076-230800-
/O.EXB.KFFC.WS.A.0001.260124T1800Z-260126T1500Z/
Polk-Paulding-Cobb-North Fulton-Gwinnett-Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-
South Fulton-DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton-Newton-Morgan-Greene-
Taliaferro-Coweta-Fayette-Clayton-Spalding-Henry-Butts-Jasper-Putnam-
Hancock-Warren-Jones-Baldwin-Washington-Glascock-Jefferson-
Including the cities of Carrollton, Jackson, Milledgeville, Sparta,
Madison, Newnan, East Point, Eatonton, Monroe, Dallas, Stockbridge,
Cedartown, Douglasville, Decatur, Greensboro, Warrenton, Griffin,
Peachtree City, Monticello, GIbson, Marietta, Atlanta, Conyers,
Louisville, Crawfordville, Riverdale, Lawrenceville, Covington, Gray,
Sandersville, and Bremen
1243 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations around
four tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, north central,
northwest, and west central Georgia.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice.
Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could
impact the Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm
kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster
cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take
water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive
in case you become stranded.


&&

$$

 

[TVILLE96]

This model stuff has gotten rather ridiculous. I think models aren’t reliable until the hour of the supposed event, and then they are still confused. Reminds me of hurricane spaghetti.

I told my wife they will be making changes to our forecast as the event is unfolding.