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January 23-25th Winter Wx

To me, this fits historically with what happens in the Birmingham area. We're just not that prone to ice storms with the warm Gulf air winning out in most cases. Yes, there are outliers like 1982 and 1996. But those are rare events (even rarer than significant snowfalls).

I saw more major icing events in two winters living in Durham, NC than I have ever seen here.
 
bckhd2 said:
Talked to many people at work here today in downtown ATL and no one's sure how to feel. Everyone has heard different numbers ranging from cold rain to 1.5" of ice. A lot of folks assume we're in the clear as FFC has not expanded the watch down into Atlanta proper.
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My Memphis friends couldn't care less. It seems people in the South are a lot more jaded about winter weather than us Northern folk.
 
Areas of NE GA NEED to watch out and a majority of MS/LA/AR will see this too. Latest NBM ensembles for freezing rain

EVEN areas in SW TN need to be aware too
 

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WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Areas of NE GA NEED to watch out and a majority of MS/LA/AR will see this too. Latest NBM ensembles for freezing rain

EVEN areas in SW TN need to be aware too
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This puts me in a bad place. I'm 20 miles from the SC line going up I-85. Let's just get this over with. I never should have looked at the models this week.

It is interesting how little people seem to care this go around. I don't know if this is a "boy who cried wolf" situation from years of them telling us it's going to snow or ice and then nothing happens, but not many people around me are interested at all or they say "nothing ever happens" or "they don't know what they're talking about." If some of these models validate so many people are unprepared in my area it's a bit disturbing.
 
Archer6999 said:
This puts me in a bad place. I'm 20 miles from the SC line going up I-85. Let's just get this over with. I never should have looked at the models this week.

It is interesting how little people seem to care this go around. I don't know if this is a "boy who cried wolf" situation from years of them telling us it's going to snow or ice and then nothing happens, but not many people around me are interested at all or they say "nothing ever happens" or "they don't know what they're talking about." If some of these models validate so many people are unprepared in my area it's a bit disturbing.
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Yeah and this isn't any little freezing rain, i mean both areas in the graphic have a decently high prob of freezing rain and a significant event at that. I do agree. The level of unpreparedness is concerning.
 
bckhd2 said:
Talked to many people at work here today in downtown ATL and no one's sure how to feel. Everyone has heard different numbers ranging from cold rain to 1.5" of ice. A lot of folks assume we're in the clear as FFC has not expanded the watch down into Atlanta proper.
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ATL metro is a huge area. people in peachtree city, douglasville, and stockbridge could get mostly a cold rain... while lawrenceville, buford, and alpharetta get an ice storm.

because the wedge of cold air is so difficult to forecast precisely, the best thing to do is just prepare for an ice storm, hope for the best, and realize that your chances of getting a significant ice event increase as you had north and east across town.
 
sak said:
ATL metro is a huge area. people in peachtree city, douglasville, and stockbridge could get mostly a cold rain... while lawrenceville, buford, and alpharetta get an ice storm.
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Yeah, the cutoff between 0.15" and 0.40" is super narrow and cuts basically right through the heart of metro ATL almost right over my house. Unfortunately, like you said, the wedge is so hard to predict that I think there are going to be a lot of people in the area surprised on Sunday.
 
bckhd2 said:
Updated ice totals from FFC through 7am Sunday. Probably a decent look at how far they expect the wedge to get out to

View attachment 50133
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i assume this map is put together from various NWS offices... and i guess BMX is more bullish on the wedge, because it doesn't make much sense for the same forecaster to have some icing issues in cleburne and cherokee counties in alabama, but less or none in floyd, polk, and harrison counties in georgia
 
Fox 6 in Birmingham, apparently with no self-awareness, has already started showing graphics on snow in Alabama NEXT weekend. They haven't even finished completely missing this winter storm prediction and they are on to the next one. Clownshoes.
 
It’s getting to the point that I no longer pay any attention to the local stations during these events. They tend to go with the dramatic forecasts until the very last second, then say the usual, “well, the cold front just didn’t reach us in time for any significant weather”. Same old, same old.
 

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bckhd2 said:
Yeah, the cutoff between 0.15" and 0.40" is super narrow and cuts basically right through the heart of metro ATL almost right over my house. Unfortunately, like you said, the wedge is so hard to predict that I think there are going to be a lot of people in the area surprised on Sunday.
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i agree. the chances that the models have the exact placement of the western extent of the wedge seems unlikely. which way it misses and by how far is anyone's guess, but i tend to agree that there's a pretty significant chance of the entire ATL metro seeing a significant ice storm, with the wedge being stronger... or the entire ATL metro seeing a cold rain with the wedge being weaker.
 
sak said:
i assume this map is put together from various NWS offices... and i guess BMX is more bullish on the wedge, because it doesn't make much sense for the same forecaster to have some icing issues in cleburne and cherokee counties in alabama, but less or none in floyd, polk, and harrison counties in georgia
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I would imagine. Weather doesn't stop at the state line lol
 
pritchlaw said:
Fox 6 in Birmingham, apparently with no self-awareness, has already started showing graphics on snow in Alabama NEXT weekend. They haven't even finished completely missing this winter storm prediction and they are on to the next one. Clownshoes.
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when you say they missed this winter storm prediction... what exactly do you mean? saying there was a chance of ice 6 days out and then after ingesting more data calling for just rain from 4 days out on is not missing a forecast (if in fact, it just rains).
 
Bulkshear said:
Well so far the Euro blow torches all the way up to the KY line. Icing may happen ironically on both sides of middle TN but it looks to me like the warm air wins out
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I said that 2 days ago when others were posting maps to the contrary. I’m not trying to be mean, it’s just that some folks put so much trust in these models, that they throw their own forecasts out the window. Read the maps, and you’ll never go wrong. I hate computer models.
 
sak said:
i agree. the chances that the models have the exact placement of the western extent of the wedge seems unlikely. which way it misses and by how far is anyone's guess, but i tend to agree that there's a pretty significant chance of the entire ATL metro seeing a significant ice storm, with the wedge being stronger... or the entire ATL metro seeing a cold rain with the wedge being weaker.
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I agree with you - the trend is looking better for the ATL metro right now, but I never like to bet against the wedge!
 
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