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January 23-25th Winter Wx

FFC is stil not buying the op Euro verbatim:
Trends in the guidance, particularly the ECMWF, towards a warmer
event have received quite a bit attention in the last 24 hours.
While these trends are are potentially positive as they would
support a rapid erosion of the wedge and less widespread ice
accumulation in Georgia, they represent only a portion of the
guidance. About half the EPS members keep temperatures in Atlanta 20
degree colder than the ECMWF on Sunday, while half the GEFS members
keep the Atlanta near or below freezing through Sunday. These
inconsistencies reflect the the models struggle to resolve the wedge
and its potential strength. Historically models overestimate the
ability of strong mid-level WAA to erode the wedge. This has been
particularly true when the wedge is being reinforced by dry CAA and
evaporative cooling. Given these considerations, we seem to be
trending towards an event where we start off with a fairly
widespread mix of light freezing rain and sleet on Saturday. As the
southerly flow intensifies Saturday night and Sunday it may erode
the southern edge of the wedge while the core of the wedges strength
holds true in northeast Georgia. This would lead to contracting
temperature gradients and a potential switch over to rain in parts
of northwest and central Georgia. It wouldn`t be surprising if
temperatures gradients between Athens and Macon exceeded 30 degrees
on Sunday! Where the wedge traditionally holds strong in northeast
Georgia icing may continue through the entire day on Sunday.
Significant and very impactful ice accumulations of 0.25 to 1.25
inches may occur.
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Geno said:
Yup - I went and fueled up half a dozen good sized fuel cans on Monday and cranked the genset. Now - nothing but rain. I'll take it over the ice but a lot of folks around here really wanted some snow.
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I wanted to see some type of winter precip but its a good thing its all rain. Ice would have been something I regretted after it set in..
 
MattW said:
FFC is stil not buying the op Euro verbatim:
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I thought this was interesting as well. I guess the Euro is known to handle the wedge poorly. All my life here I’ve learned never to bet against the wedge.

FFC does have my area at 0.15” of ice with temps up to 40° on Sunday, so it looks like we’re trending in the right direction.
 
akt1985 said:
Something you might not have considered, but if you do lose power and need something to do while it is still daylight outside, go to your local library before this system hits and check out some physical books. That is what I did yesterday as I don’t want to drain my phone battery if my power goes out.
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Seconded. Libraries are a great resource even without crippling ice. Also, dust off some board games!
 
some of the overnight runs (particularly the euro) were knocking on the door of historic snowfall totals in the cincinnati area & to its southeast this weekend. Still a way to go before I bite, as the possibility does exist for sleet to fall during most of the first half of saturday up here.

edit:

the 12z NAM's skew-t for the cincy area early on Sunday wants to walk that line between fzr and snow. i also can't help but see Doug's side profile in the warm nose.

1769093352168.png
 
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I have been watching pretty much every source of weather media and have noticed that the Fox Weather channel (222 on Dish) is about 18 hours behind everyone else. Just now really revealing to the viewers that it will "possibly be mostly rain from Montgomery up to Birmingham." Thanks guys.
 
akt1985 said:
Something you might not have considered, but if you do lose power and need something to do while it is still daylight outside, go to your local library before this system hits and check out some physical books. That is what I did yesterday as I don’t want to drain my phone battery if my power goes out.
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Agreed. Library books are great for fires if your power goes out. Highly recommend.
 
cincywx said:
some of the overnight runs (particularly the euro) were knocking on the door of historic snowfall totals in the cincinnati area & to its southeast this weekend. Still a way to go before I bite, as the possibility does exist for sleet to fall during most of the first half of saturday up here.

edit:

the 12z NAM's skew-t for the cincy area early on Sunday wants to walk that line between fzr and snow. i also can't help but see Doug's side profile in the warm nose.

View attachment 50128
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We got absolutely hammered in the Kenwood area last year. I think the prediction was 8" and I have several pictures of a ruler well past the 12" mark.

I see anywhere from 2.5 to 15.5 on the Plumes, and they're still very spread out.
 
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