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January 23-25th Winter Wx

i can confirm that every grocery store in Arkansas is out of saltine crackers. Except that whole wheatish version. No sourdough. Was able to snag the last Walmart Marketplace Caesar salad package (with the world's best tasting Caesar dressing, go figure...) at a store, so small victories.

So is there a formula for how much sleet will start to cause power outages? I know .25 of ice gets risky, .5+ gets bad for outages. I'd guess sleet doesn't accumulate near as fast on power lines or branches, not like a freezing rain glazing, but can it enough to eventually cause outages? Any more shifting north and I'm in the significant sleet zone.
 
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Grand Poo Bah said:
This is certainly going to be a thick wet snow
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Which will freeze into concrete with the brutal cold coming. We're in for an extended period of "snowed in" for a huge number of people across the eastern US.
 
I don't know what to think about the Memphis area. 30 miles north and it's 18-24 inches of snow. 30 miles south it's potentially catastrophic ice. The million dollar question is what happens in that space between.
 
Blountwolf said:
Which will freeze into concrete with the brutal cold coming. We're in for an extended period of "snowed in" for a huge number of people across the eastern US.
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Exactly what I was thinking. Silver lining, if you've got access to a steep driveway on a slow street or cul de sac, the sledding conditions will be legendary!... Oh to be a kid again...
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
View attachment 50117

Two feet of snow in Fayetteville, AR and Lexington, KY. That'd be nuts. I'm really curious how this sleet situation is going to play out in Tennessee, because they have a pretty intense band of it for an extended period of time. They're showing moderate snowfall, and minimal freezing rain, but where does sleet accumulation play in? Same question for a lot of other areas. This is certainly going to be a thick wet snow, which will make the roads extremely slick and difficult to clear.

View attachment 50115View attachment 50116
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I hope it snows 1736363 feet.
 
Anti-Freeze said:
i can confirm that every grocery store in Arkansas is out of saltine crackers. Except that whole wheatish version. No sourdough. Was able to snag the last Walmart Marketplace Caesar salad package (with the world's best tasting Caesar dressing, go figure...) at a store, so small victories.

So is there a formula for how much sleet will start to cause power outages? I know .25 of ice gets risky, .5+ gets bad for outages. I'd guess sleet doesn't accumulate near as fast on power lines or branches, not like a freezing rain glazing, but can it enough to eventually cause outages? Any more shifting north and I'm in the significant sleet zone.
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Holy crap. That dressing is the best. Grabbed a few things from the Fayetteville North Walmart on the way home and it was crazy. Generator has had oil changed, extra gas and propane and let's boogie.
 
Ebaad Jaffery said:
View attachment 50121
Why are the snow depth totals on the ensemble models so high?
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Another guess is It might actually have something to do with how the sleet situation is resolving. The precipitation depiction has sleet hanging out over the area for a large chunk of the event. It might be calculating as snow with a 10:1 ratio when it'll actually be sleet that is closer to 5:1 or 3:1.
 
I am watching and wondering if the GFS is going to move the freezing rain QPF to be more in line with the ECMWF's models over GA, and slide it a bit more north-eastward. Hoping to see that movement some maybe tomorrow for my home location with my family, however I am supposed to drive from ATL to Greenville, SC on Monday and am currently unsure that it will happen.
 
Yup, in tupelo, the forecast Saturday is frzing rain changing to rain in the afternoon, with a high of 34.
 
Blountwolf said:
I don't think there is anyone in Kentucky with less than a foot of snow on this run. That's going to be a heck of a snowpack if it all verifies.
View attachment 50118

Euro on board with that too at 18Z, so y'all going to get clocked. You're welcome for the Alabama atmospheric river...lol.

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I'm still not ready to buy into that. Both would be the all time record snowfall here in Louisville.

I noticed the Euro has started seeing the well below zero temps that always come with something like that, though.
 
06z GFS still shows crippling ice storm for most of North GA. I do not envy the job of FFC this week when the Euro and GFS show such different solutions with drastically different impacts on the CWA.
 
Sitting here in north Georgia surrounded by trees hoping for a better outlook this morning, then i see the overnight developments and yikes. This entire storm has already taken a few days off my life from stress, but these newest projections are terrifying for us. Our entire area would be pretty much a wasteland if we got that much ice. Not to mention my house would probably be taken out. Anything but ice. I even have a full home generator, but what good does that do if almost 2 inches of freezing rain fell? The house would have multiple trees on it.

Please all fall as sleet. I want this winter OVER and it’s still January. Sheesh.

I take down a dozen trees every summer to remove strikers, but still have so much work left. Living in the woods is not fun when tree dropper storms come through. I barely escaped Helene and now this. At the end of the day at least it’s insured. I moved my camper to the center of a field at the other end of my property and that’s where I’m putting my cars too. Save what I can in case these are correct. I might be moving into my camper for a while if some of these forecast get it right.
 
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