January 23-25th Winter Wx

[bckhd2]

You should definitely be preparing for heavy ice. Still a lot of uncertainties but freezing rain seems likely north of I-20.

Also, welcome!

Thanks! We are preparing here, can't get a generator at the house unfortunately but stocked in with water and batteries, etc. The I-20 marker definitely seems to be what FFC is focusing on as the rain-ice line.

What the FFC said is pretty much what I anticipate happening for now based on what the models are showing. I'm in Kennesaw, so I am definitely concerned with the GFS runs.

GFS is a tough look for us. Even the 0.4" from FFC is making me nervous. Especially with all the rain coming in beforehand and the wind after - worried about weakened trees and power lines in the area. Hoping for a better look overnight!!

 

[genie]

AI Euro appears to be north, but a little cooler. We'll see what the OG says.

 

[genie]

Euro is coming in south of the previous run. It's not by much, but another step in the right direction. Temps are still warmer than we'd want to see. It's very amped.

 

[Rapideswx]

Winter storm watch issued this afternoon for central and southwest Louisiana except for the coastal parishes. Could get a significant ice event here in Alexandria but the Euro at this time mostly just shows cold rain.

Also could get quite cold, especially if there's wintry precip accumulation. NWS is forecasting 13F for Monday night.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

The NBM ensembles really do help with sorting out the general probabilities and so you don't have to pick out every deterministic run to see if your area will get sleet/ice/snow. Here's what they say regarding AR/MS, a decently high chance of freezing rain.

 

[warneagle]

A friend of mine up in Baltimore told me he waited 30 minutes to check out at the grocery store tonight, so there goes my assumption that getting to the store before the WSW was issued would help me avoid the panic rush.

 

[cyelle21]

AI Euro appears to be north, but a little cooler. We'll see what the OG says.

What is the main difference between the AI Euro and the regular Euro? Sorry if this is a stupid question.

 

[cyelle21]

A friend of mine up in Baltimore told me he waited 30 minutes to check out at the grocery store tonight, so there goes my assumption that getting to the store before the WSW was issued would help me avoid the panic rush.

I went to the grocery store in Selma, AL this afternoon and it was PACKED!

 

[Blountwolf]

The GEFS ensembles... well, just pick whatever you'd like to happen, one member or another will probably support it.

 

[Flurry]

Never seen this much of the US in one area under a WSW…This is crazy

 

[genie]

What is the main difference between the AI Euro and the regular Euro? Sorry if this is a stupid question.

The AI Euro uses AI to look at past weather data and recognize patterns, then makes a prediction based on what historically happens. The OG Euro is a traditional weather model that uses physics and math to simulate how air, moisture, and storms move through the atmosphere step by step. In layman's terms, the AI is like an advanced, albeit not as proven, pattern reader, and the OG Euro is like a weather simulator and has a longer track record.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Never seen this much of the US in one area under a WSW…This is crazy

View attachment 50103

I would expect some additional changes to this as we go, but it's a wild sight for sure. Some of these areas seem more likely to get freezing rain but this system will probably slap me for saying that. Regardless, I still think freezing rain will be a potent issue regardless of what happens. I would expert big extensions up to NYC and such, pretty high confidence in a good total of snow up there. Not really a winter guy but figured I'd jump in and see what's the latest with this

 

[bckhd2]

EURO seems to be a better look for ATL metro in regards to ice, looks to have pulled back on the westward extent of the wedge. Upstate SC and NC may be in some trouble.

 

[KoD]

I never quite understood why there is a negative zero.

-0 < 0 ??

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

There is some confidence in Northern GA, so i would definitely keep a close eye. Dehlonega and Clayton areas are the main focus for freezing rain.

 

[Atomz]

There is some confidence in Northern GA, so i would definitely keep a close eye. Dehlonega and Clayton areas are the main focus

Is this for snow?

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Is this for snow?

I totally forgot to mention, sorry :/ it's for freezing rain

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Hurricane hunters are currently sampling the system.

 

[ColdFront]

The NBM ensembles really do help with sorting out the general probabilities and so you don't have to pick out every deterministic run to see if your area will get sleet/ice/snow. Here's what they say regarding AR/MS, a decently high chance of freezing rain.

Thanks for sharing this. Do you have a pivotal plus subscription? Or can NBM be found somewhere else?

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Thanks for sharing this. Do you have a pivotal plus subscription? Or can NBM be found somewhere else?

This is actually a website I found from a particular streamer a hour ago. I've seen it used in different situations but never found the site until now! It takes some time but you can adjust the totals and the probabilities of those totals so it's a great tool and it honestly makes forecasting systems like these a bit more easier. No having to go thru every model at once.

DESI

sites.gsl.noaa.gov