sak
Member
i think NE MS like starkville/columbus/tupelo will struggle with the warm nose like alabama. i think they see above freezing liquid rain for a chunk of the storm in the middle greatly mitigating the overall impact
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January 23-25th Winter Wx
- Thread starter UncleJuJu98
- Start date
18ZGFS flattens the nose and is running the low across S GA. Sure seems the more logical solution to me.
That's literally >2" of ice in my backyard. What a nightmare.
That's a nasty stripe the GFS is still putting down.
lake.effect
Member
NASTY, right over Atlanta proper.
Atlanta has been in the crosshairs of a big ice storm since the model runs on Monday, seems like somewhere around there is going to get walloped.
N4GK
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I believe warm air is going to push its way up into North Alabama just into Tennessee, and it will mostly be a mix, or just rain, which won’t be a problem. I don’t think the temperature will get below 35 on Saturday. Sunday won’t get to freezing either, and by the time it gets into the teens late Sunday night, it will be too late as the moisture will be gone.
northeastatlwthrguy
Member
Any data you are keying in on here or just your thoughts based on past storms?
Grand Poo Bah
Member
Will be interesting to see the sleet situation as that can easily accumulate in large quantities even with temps a bit above freezing.
The Colonel
Member
We’re talking a 50-75 mile shift here in any direction is bad news for a lot of folks - and we are 72+ hours out from the main event.
Lot to work through still. 0z will be telling
Snow trended back south with this GFS run too - N MS is back in the snow game, JP.
Now we'll see if the Euro follows.
Now we'll see if the Euro follows.
- Thread starter
- #392
It'll be absolutely diabolical if over the next 24 hours we start shifting back to the original model runs that we were seeing yesterday morning lol.
Yeah. I like it, but the GFS has been on the more snow train from the get go and has been the only model really showing it. Unless the Euro starts to show it like you said, I'm not buying the whole this is gonna be a pure snow event yet (as much as I want to)
It wouldn’t necessarily be shocking at this point. I may be wrong, but I think the Euro is way out to pasture at this point. As FFC noted, the EPS ensembles have disagreed with it at almost every step of the way.
UpperLevelLOL
Member
GFS backed off some of the snow totals here in the OKC metro
Wouldn't shock me a bit - it used to happen so often we had a term for it, the "windshield wiper effect". I think that was a Jeff Haby hint as well, IIRC.
I have seen that happen many times
bckhd2
Member
Hi all, long time lurker first time poster. What’s the vibe for those in ATL metro? I’m about 10 miles north of downtown and unsure how to feel. FFC estimating 0.4” of ice for my area which seems accurate, but others showing we’re more in line for cold rain. That 18z GFS run has me worried.
genie
Member
What the FFC said is pretty much what I anticipate happening for now based on what the models are showing. I'm in Kennesaw, so I am definitely concerned with the GFS runs.
You should definitely be preparing for heavy ice. Still a lot of uncertainties but freezing rain seems likely north of I-20.
Also, welcome!