Tropical Storm Isaias

[Thanksgivingbrown]

This place is dead considering we got our first real storm to track this season

 

[Mike S]

Someone start a thread......

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Invest 92L looks to become a tropical system today or tomorrow.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

A

Tropical Storm Thread 'Isaias'

Sep 30, 2026

Might need to watch the Bay of Campeche in the Southwestern Gulf the first week of October for potential tropical development.

• akt1985
• Replies: 110
• Forum: Tropical Weather

• 

 

[Blountwolf]

Globals came a little west on recent runs, slightly weaker. Hurricane models... not so much.
View attachment 55114
View attachment 55115
HAFS A-B is down to 972 and 969 but weakens it nearer to the coast.
View attachment 55116
View attachment 55117

 

[Blountwolf]

Globals came a little west on recent runs, slightly weaker. Hurricane models... not so much.


HAFS A-B is down to 972 and 969 but weakens it nearer to the coast.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I think we will see tropical storm Isaiahs by the end of the day today

 

[Blountwolf]

Location seems fairly locked in, but intensity is dice roll. Hot ssts and some deep ocean heat support on the path, but still looks to be a hostile shear environment.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Listening to somebody say that the tornado threat with this landfalling tropical system could be more elevated due to the dry punch of air possibly.

 

[Blountwolf]

I'm just not at all sure about this one. Hard to see how it gets going well and survives.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Day 5 15% yellow highlighted risk issued for the gulf coast

 

[N0mz]

Day 5 15% yellow highlighted risk issued for the gulf coast

Made a thread in the severe forum
https://talkweather.com/threads/invest-92l-hurricane-isaias-severe-wx.2569/#post-214101

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Thanks nomz I’ll check it out

 

[slenker]

I'm just not at all sure about this one. Hard to see how it gets going well and survives.

Yeah, I'm not buying a major. It'll certainly become a lower end hurricane though. I don't think the shear is forecast to relax at all either.

 

[Blountwolf]

Yeah, I'm not buying a major. It'll certainly become a lower end hurricane though. I don't think the shear is forecast to relax at all either.

I think we'll have a better idea once we see how/where cyclogenesis happens. Where the low-level center consolidates matters most, because a Bay of Campeche center versus one further east or north changes the track and the time over water. The models are being run on a system that hasn't really organized yet. Lots can still change.

 

[Mike S]

FWIW - I've moved all the posts from the Atlantic thread to this dedicated thread.

 

[Mike S]

I think we'll have a better idea once we see how/where cyclogenesis happens. Where the low-level center consolidates matters most, because a Bay of Campeche center versus one further east or north changes the track and the time over water. The models are being run on a system that hasn't really organized yet. Lots can still change.

Amen! I was coming to say the same thing.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

One thing is for sure. Parts of alabama will recieve some ridiculous rainfall especially if the moisture shield pushes ahead of the tropical system

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Nhc has put a 100% chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours.

Looking very healthy on sattelite, probably very close already

 

[Blountwolf]

23N, 95 or 96W... ish. IMO.