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Invest Invest 96L (1 Viewer)


JayF

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A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic, a few
hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues to produce
a broad area of shower activity. No significant development of this
system is expected for the next few days while it moves westward at
15 to 20 mph. Upper-level winds could become more conducive for
development by the weekend while the wave continues westward across
the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Invest 96L July 2019.png
 

MattW

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Bears watching. the last 4 runs of the GFS bring something from roughly Puerto Rico along the east side of the Bahamas at various strengths. 5th run (12z July 29th) wanted to develop something off Key West. Euro is onboard as well with several runs, some fish, some similar to the GFS.
 
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Look for a major hit along the eastern seaboard this coming month. Global Weather Oscillations with a 87% hot spot accuracy seems to think there will be at least 2 major hurricane hits this year. We are in what is considered the strongest landfall cycle in many many years.
 

Kory

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The current pattern is quite unfavorable for any Cape Verde storms to make landfall in the CONUS. Closer development in the Gulf or Western Caribbean would be more likely to affect the US. We have quite deep and persistent trough over the East Coast.
 

WesL

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A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing widespread cloudiness and showers over
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. No significant development of
this system is expected for the next few days while it moves
westward at about 15 mph. Thereafter, upper-level winds are forecast
to gradually become more conducive, and a tropical depression could
form by early next week several hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 

JayF

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It is building. Wes here is to hoping that there is a break between storms for you cruise to have smooth sailing.
 

WesL

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Funny thing is we are using the credit from the storm last year. Go figure.
 

WesL

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019


2. A broad low pressure system is producing a large area of cloudiness
and shower activity several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are not expected to be
conducive for significant development of this disturbance during
the next couple of days while it moves westward at about 15 mph
across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development over the weekend,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week
several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 

Taylor Campbell

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A US hit is definitely not out of the possibilities, yet. Yes, there's timed troughing forecast across the eastern US/western Atlantic in the coming days for it to feel a weakness, but currently the operational GFS, and EURO have it in the southwest Atlantic at a relatively low latitude. That trough needs to be quite strong to pull something north, and out of sea from that spot! The ensemble spread remains quite large with plenty of ideas of what could happen should it 1. stay south at a far enough latitude to not feel weakness from the trough, and 2. only feel enough weakness to slow, and turn north momentarily until a ridge builds back in. If one or two occurs than a US hit becomes much more likely. And trust me, it wouldn't be the first time we've seen any of those scenarios play out.
 
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A US hit is definitely not out of the possibilities, yet. Yes, there's timed troughing forecast across the eastern US/western Atlantic in the coming days for it to feel a weakness, but currently the operational GFS, and EURO have it in the southwest Atlantic at a relatively low latitude. That trough needs to be quite strong to pull something north, and out of sea from that spot! The ensemble spread remains quite large with plenty of ideas of what could happen should it 1. stay south at a far enough latitude to not feel weakness from the trough, and 2. only feel enough weakness to slow, and turn north momentarily until a ridge builds back in. If one or two occurs than a US hit becomes much more likely. And trust me, it wouldn't be the first time we've seen any of those scenarios play out.

I agree, I think it’s too early to say with 100% certainty that this is an out to sea scenario. Any time a tropical system that comes off of Africa that low in latitude will need a great deal of troughing to pull it out to sea, which is definitely still a possibility. If it does happen to make a U.S. landfall, my prediction is North Carolina.
 

Kory

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The best chance to actually pose any reasonable risk to the US is if it limps along to the Western Caribbean or off the SE US Coast. If it develops too quickly, it’s out to sea (which I currently think it’s the most likely route regardless of development). Although the 06z GFS and 00z Euro are nothing whatsoever. Hints that the CCKW will act destructively to hinder development.
 

MattW

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GFS and Euro are both poof! GFS stilll wants to start something nearish Bermuda, but I can't tell if it's this system or spawned off a system coming off the CONUS.
 

JayF

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The NHC went from 70% in 5 days to 50%. It is weakening out there. Even the storm that was behind it dissipated.
 

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