invest 93L (40/40)

[Blountwolf]

Thank you mods/admins. Your work is much appreciated.

Looks like the latest spaghetti models keep this mostly onshore. Seems appropriate with how far north that swirl was/is. Still, I dread the atmospheric rivers this will be able to pull up out of the gulf. Expecting SE flooding on this track.

 

[JPWX]

Thank you mods/admins. Your work is much appreciated.

Looks like the latest spaghetti models keep this mostly onshore. Seems appropriate with how far north that swirl was/is. Still, I dread the atmospheric rivers this will be able to pull up out of the gulf. Expecting SE flooding on this track.
View attachment 45130

Right. I'm kinda surprised the forecast models aren't more aggressive with the total rainfall amounts because you are definitely going to have PWAT values surging to near or exceeding 3 inches. I mean I understand this isn't organized yet, but still.

 

[Blountwolf]

Right. I'm kinda surprised the forecast models aren't more aggressive with the total rainfall amounts because you are definitely going to have PWAT values surging to near or exceeding 3 inches. I mean I understand this isn't organized yet, but still.

Exactly.

Couple of things about this one still giving me pause, even on this track.

1. The ground (where it isn't swamp already) is very saturated in the panhandle. There may not be a whole lot of difference between land and sea. Brown ocean effect.
2. I'm not liking how much influence this low is already throwing around. That's a healthy looking spin.
3. Dry air on it's path. Simply put - "there ain't any".



Obviously one would need a more southerly track for any RI or major shenanigans, but I'm not writing off this one having surprises and outsized impacts. The recent rain rates have been absurd - 11 inches in 4 hours in one spot in FL near Lakeland under one of these thunderstorms.

 

[JPWX]

I mean to be honest the 12z UKMET, ICON, and Canadian from yesterday makes the most sense rainfall wise.

 

[JPWX]

And here's the PWAT values from all the latest global models over my area valid at 21z Saturday

 

[Blountwolf]

Dropped the station plots on there - CoC is a pain to find of course at this "strength", but at 5 it was about half way across the peninsula, looks like.

 

[Blountwolf]

LOL... that very promising surface spin just spun up into S GA.

COD-NEXLAB : Dual-Pol Radar for JAX

Dual-Pol NEXRAD Data for provided by College of DuPage Meteorology (NEXLAB)

weather.cod.edu

 

[Atlantic]

93L may indeed surprise us;

 

[Blountwolf]

93L may indeed surprise us;

With that surface circulation all the way up in SW GA, I just don't see it doing much. Path is just way too far north for shenanigans. It will be a good forcing mechanism for afternoon storms, but as far as tropical cyclones go, it's not going to be up to much, IMO.

 

[Clancy]

With that surface circulation all the way up in SW GA, I just don't see it doing much. Path is just way too far north for shenanigans. It will be a good forcing mechanism for afternoon storms, but as far as tropical cyclones go, it's not going to be up to much, IMO.

Looks like it's just gonna keep scraping along the coast, so while it definitely will definitely keep things rainy on the Gulf Coast, not foreseeing much in the way of robust development. Models still have something developing further out in the Gulf, but I'm skeptical. Still, tropics can surprise, so never write anything off completely.

 

[Blountwolf]

The spaghetti models have this initialized as a lot further south than where it looks like on vis to me, with that convection blob being on the far SW of the surface circulation.




Could get a surface low reforming down there, but for now the spin remains further north onshore.