invest 93L (40/40)

[Blountwolf]

Thank you mods/admins. Your work is much appreciated.

Looks like the latest spaghetti models keep this mostly onshore. Seems appropriate with how far north that swirl was/is. Still, I dread the atmospheric rivers this will be able to pull up out of the gulf. Expecting SE flooding on this track.

 

[JPWX]

Thank you mods/admins. Your work is much appreciated.

Looks like the latest spaghetti models keep this mostly onshore. Seems appropriate with how far north that swirl was/is. Still, I dread the atmospheric rivers this will be able to pull up out of the gulf. Expecting SE flooding on this track.
View attachment 45130

Right. I'm kinda surprised the forecast models aren't more aggressive with the total rainfall amounts because you are definitely going to have PWAT values surging to near or exceeding 3 inches. I mean I understand this isn't organized yet, but still.

 

[Blountwolf]

Right. I'm kinda surprised the forecast models aren't more aggressive with the total rainfall amounts because you are definitely going to have PWAT values surging to near or exceeding 3 inches. I mean I understand this isn't organized yet, but still.

Exactly.

Couple of things about this one still giving me pause, even on this track.

1. The ground (where it isn't swamp already) is very saturated in the panhandle. There may not be a whole lot of difference between land and sea. Brown ocean effect.
2. I'm not liking how much influence this low is already throwing around. That's a healthy looking spin.
3. Dry air on it's path. Simply put - "there ain't any".



Obviously one would need a more southerly track for any RI or major shenanigans, but I'm not writing off this one having surprises and outsized impacts. The recent rain rates have been absurd - 11 inches in 4 hours in one spot in FL near Lakeland under one of these thunderstorms.

 

[JPWX]

I mean to be honest the 12z UKMET, ICON, and Canadian from yesterday makes the most sense rainfall wise.

 

[JPWX]

And here's the PWAT values from all the latest global models over my area valid at 21z Saturday

 

[Blountwolf]

Dropped the station plots on there - CoC is a pain to find of course at this "strength", but at 5 it was about half way across the peninsula, looks like.