N0mz
Member
SPC issued a 15% D5 risk contour on the Gulf Coast from extreme eastern Louisiana to extreme western Florida. We likely won't have much certainty on intensity and location until the potential hurricane gets better organized.
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Invest 92L/Hurricane Isaias Severe WX
- Thread starter N0mz
- Start date
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
StormNet has some good probs for this one. Expecting a classic tropical tornado event thru the fl Panhandle into the Carolinas.
Euro is a tornado problem for the southeast
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Yeah that scenario would be quite the long duration tor event.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
This is not something I'd rely on but if you want to... You can check out the hurricane models (HAFS or etc) radar to get a early depiction of what it may look regarding the tornado threat and the outer bands. Your main CAMs are key but just if you want a early look ahead at this threat.
Looks like a pretty classic tropical tornado event for MS/AL/GA if this storm ends up evolving in the general fashion models suggest. Tropical Storm Lee in 2011 gave western Georgia a decent smattering of tornadoes from remnant storm bands, and followed a fairly similar track.
Ozonelayer
Member
The tornado threat in and of itself from this looks to be fairly classic.
Some thoughts I have regarding this is that there are some factors that could further enhance the tornado threat. Namely the fact that this appears to make landfall in an area with a good amount of shear, and a stronger EML/Dry punch. This would likely allow for mini-supercells in the outer bands to produce a more significant tornado threat rather than spamming weak and brief spin ups for a little while
Things could change, but seems like a fairly interesting setup.
Some thoughts I have regarding this is that there are some factors that could further enhance the tornado threat. Namely the fact that this appears to make landfall in an area with a good amount of shear, and a stronger EML/Dry punch. This would likely allow for mini-supercells in the outer bands to produce a more significant tornado threat rather than spamming weak and brief spin ups for a little while
Things could change, but seems like a fairly interesting setup.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Models are beginning to come in and confirm my initial suspicion. Likely to be Isaias peaks around C2/C3 in the gulf but dry air rips it apart. What does that mean? Dry air aiding and helping the tornado risk significantly. Beryl was decently weak within landfall and still produced a major TC induced outbreak. Not to say that will happen but it will make this risk a bit more intense in nature than usual.
Kds86z
Member
12z euro a good look for tornadoes
CheeselandSkies
Member
In my memory, it's pretty unusual for SPC to highlight an area beyond day 4 for strictly tropical tornadoes. Usually there's too much uncertainty around whether a particular landfall will come with the necessary ingredients for a substantial threat vs. just sporadic, isolated occurrences within the bands of the right-front quadrant.
To back up your statement here. Trey in his forecast video talked about how this setup would favor a more elevated tornado threat. Similar to Milton (but was saying maybe not to that extreme).
Reading the write up on the day 5 Spc discussion talks about supercells oriented east to west possibly after initially being elevated when moving inland. I definitely don’t envy mobile or Pensacola NWS in warning this event. I’m also curious to how far inland a substantial tornado threat could materialize due to the straight northerly track of the low pressure.
Throwing the euro and some maps out there that look good. Check out the mid levels dry air punching in. And the low level moisture. As well as simulated radar. A seriously large area from Alabama to Georgia could be dealing with a low topped supercell nightmare.
Posting HWRF simulated infrared. Bullish on supercells inland, that picture of supercells firing in central Alabama is worrying. Tornado threat all the way to Tennessee.
akt1985
Member
Could we see some tornadoes rated EF-3 with this setup like with Milton?
Yeah, I dunno that the tornado threat will necessarily be relegated to the coast here, as is often the case with landfalling TCs. That said, MOB & TAE are probably in for a doozy from this one.
15% risk for day 4. Almost covering the entire southern half of Alabama. With explicit mention of a few supercells and a accompanying tornado risk