N0mz
Member
SPC issued a 15% D5 risk contour on the Gulf Coast from extreme eastern Louisiana to extreme western Florida. We likely won't have much certainty on intensity and location until the potential hurricane gets better organized.
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Invest 92L/Hurricane Isaias Severe WX
- Thread starter N0mz
- Start date
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
StormNet has some good probs for this one. Expecting a classic tropical tornado event thru the fl Panhandle into the Carolinas.
Euro is a tornado problem for the southeast
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Yeah that scenario would be quite the long duration tor event.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
This is not something I'd rely on but if you want to... You can check out the hurricane models (HAFS or etc) radar to get a early depiction of what it may look regarding the tornado threat and the outer bands. Your main CAMs are key but just if you want a early look ahead at this threat.
Looks like a pretty classic tropical tornado event for MS/AL/GA if this storm ends up evolving in the general fashion models suggest. Tropical Storm Lee in 2011 gave western Georgia a decent smattering of tornadoes from remnant storm bands, and followed a fairly similar track.
Ozonelayer
Member
The tornado threat in and of itself from this looks to be fairly classic.
Some thoughts I have regarding this is that there are some factors that could further enhance the tornado threat. Namely the fact that this appears to make landfall in an area with a good amount of shear, and a stronger EML/Dry punch. This would likely allow for mini-supercells in the outer bands to produce a more significant tornado threat rather than spamming weak and brief spin ups for a little while
Things could change, but seems like a fairly interesting setup.
Some thoughts I have regarding this is that there are some factors that could further enhance the tornado threat. Namely the fact that this appears to make landfall in an area with a good amount of shear, and a stronger EML/Dry punch. This would likely allow for mini-supercells in the outer bands to produce a more significant tornado threat rather than spamming weak and brief spin ups for a little while
Things could change, but seems like a fairly interesting setup.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Models are beginning to come in and confirm my initial suspicion. Likely to be Isaias peaks around C2/C3 in the gulf but dry air rips it apart. What does that mean? Dry air aiding and helping the tornado risk significantly. Beryl was decently weak within landfall and still produced a major TC induced outbreak. Not to say that will happen but it will make this risk a bit more intense in nature than usual.
Kds86z
Member
12z euro a good look for tornadoes