Iceland's Fagradalsfjall Fires

[bjdeming]

Here is the latest IMO update (autotranslated) on Svartsengi (any time between now and December, basically) AND the Krysuvik system, which is still restless.

This 2024 RUV article (autotranslated) takes a look at what an eruption somewhere in the Krysuvik system, as it was defined then, might mean for Reykjavik.

(I'm not sure how understanding and definition of volcanic systems on the Reykjanes Peninsula have evolved since then, with insights from more recent eruptions and further studies. The details are probably clearer to boffins these days.)

 

[bjdeming]

An article came up in my news feed today saying that an eruption happened near the power plant. If so, somebody forgot to notify Iceland's Met Office, emergency management officials, and people.

Just like a contractor really did forget to warn everybody monitoring the seismovolcanic situation before setting off some explosions late last month near the Blue Lagoon. This led to some excitement (autotranslated; also a cool view of power plant buildings surrounded by lava -- old lava, judging by the vegetation on it, not from this current 21st-century round, though I could be wrong).

 

[bjdeming]

Still waiting. Per IMO via GT:

The probability of a volcanic eruption at the Sundhnúk crater range continues to increase​

10.12.2025

Updated 10.12.2025

Key points​

• Magma accumulation slow but steady in recent weeks
• While magma accumulation continues, a new eruption must be expected.
• Uncertainty about the timing of the next eruption is greater when magma accumulation is slow
• The amount of magma that has accumulated under Svartsengi since the last eruption is the fifth largest to date
• The risk assessment remains unchanged until January 6, unless there are changes to the activity.

Here's the whole thing (autotranslated).

 

[bjdeming]

Nice InSAR image with the new IMO update as well as the reassuring news that inflation hasn't been seen at other volcanic systems on the peninsula.

Per GT ("magma flow" = "dike intrusion," and "landslides" means "earthquakes"):

The amount of magma under Svartsengi continues to increase​

3.2.2026


Updated February 3

• About 21 million cubic meters have accumulated since the last eruption
• The volume of magma under Svartsengi has reached a maximum of 22.6 million cubic meters.
• Magma flow and volcanic eruption at the Sundhnúk crater range the most likely scenario
• No signs of magma accumulation elsewhere on the Reykjanes Peninsula
• Risk assessment unchanged and validity period extended until March 3rd.

Magma collection​

Magma accumulation under Svartsengi is slow but steady, as it has been in recent weeks. According to model calculations, almost 21 million cubic meters of magma have now accumulated under Svartsengi since the last eruption in July. The amount of magma under Svartsengi has reached a maximum of 22.6 million cubic meters.

While magma accumulation continues, the most likely scenario in the coming weeks is a magma flow from Svartsengi into the Sundhnúk crater series, which could end in an eruption. If an eruption occurs, the eruption is most likely to be comparable to the events that have occurred so far at the Sundhnúk crater series.

Landslides and seismic activity on the Reykjavik Peninsula​

Low seismic activity continues to be measured at Svartsengi.

On January 28th, there was an earthquake swarm at Lambafell in Þrengslar, where almost 200 earthquakes were measured. A total of over 260 earthquakes have been measured in the area in the past week. The largest earthquake measured M3 in magnitude. This is a typical seismic activity in the area, but the last swarm at Lambafell occurred in July 2024.

A satellite-based InSAR image, which measures subtle surface changes by comparing images taken at different times, was recently received. The image covers the entire Reykjavik Peninsula and shows that land rise is not measured anywhere else on the peninsula except at Svartsengi.



Satellite image spanning the period August 9, 2025 – January 30, 2026, showing land rise at Svartsengi.

Risk assessment​

The Meteorological Office's risk assessment remains unchanged and has been extended until March 3. The Meteorological Office continues to closely monitor developments and will update the risk assessment if there are any changes in activity.