Iceland's Fagradalsfjall Fires

[bjdeming]

Visir reports that the eruption has begun near the Grindavik barrier (outside). Those people left there need to get out NOW.

 

[TornadoFan]

Now its erupting inside one of the berms

 

[bjdeming]

RUV:

The crack has broken through the dam.​

The volcanic fissure has opened on the Grindavík side of the lake. Webcams show how the fissure has opened under the dam and magma is spewing out on the Grindavík side.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[bjdeming]

Now its erupting inside one of the berms

At last news I saw, there were emergency personnel in there and eight people who, knowing the risk, refused to leave. The roads are officially closed but they can probably get out. This might be it not only for the town but also the harbor. Farther down the road to the sea is another town, Hraun, but its fate will be clearer later on.

 

[bjdeming]

IMO just now (the magma today has opened an 11-km-long dike):

Volcanic eruption just north of Grindavík​

1.4.2025

Updated at 10:00 AM



The crack is now about 500 meters wide and has now reached through the dam north of Grindavík. The crack continues to grow and it cannot be ruled out that it will continue to open to the south.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[bjdeming]

Here's a side view from Visir. The crack is still extending north and south, reportedly.

 

[bjdeming]

The crack is extending south. I's actually a series of en echelon fissures /// but I don't enjoy watching that here. A chopper just flew over -- more pictures should be up soon.

 

[bjdeming]

RUV (emphasis added): "...
Runólfur Þórhallsson, director of the Civil Protection Department, says that there is a lot of uncertainty due to the eruption that has now begun and reiterates to everyone remaining in Grindavík to leave the town. These are recommendations from the police chief in Suðurnes and Civil Protection.

Runólfur says that the event could be much larger than recent events because the magma tunnel has become much longer than previously seen and a large amount of magma has accumulated..."

 

[TornadoFan]

Still expanding to the south..

 

[bjdeming]

But slowly, much more slowly than such extension has happened in some other eruptions. IMO just reported that from the chopper the crack is about 700 m long and appears stable, though they don't rule out extension in either direction.

That aside, the lava volume here is probably going to be an issue, too. The barriers might get overtopped in various places.

 

[bjdeming]

This new one just opened pretty quickly, though.

 

[TornadoFan]

You can see areas where there is gas coming out of new potential vents

 

[bjdeming]

RUV: The ground ahead of the new crack does seem to be rather smoky, so yeah, it's probably still extending. Northward the line seems to have traveled quite a ways, too, though ? if that will eventually impact the power plant.

A view of the eruption sites at 11:00 AM.​

RÚV / Jonmundur Gislason

Fyrir 16 mínútum

The new crack lies 500 meters from the town.​

A new crack opened inside the dikes in Grindavík shortly before 11 a.m. It is near the ORF greenhouse and about half a kilometer from the northernmost house in town...

 

[bjdeming]

The pace of extension is really picking up and there's fountaining now. It's probably much closer than 500 m.

 

[bjdeming]

The extension seems to have slowed again, but the area behind this advancing crack, inside the barrier, is flooded pretty thoroughly -- the greenhouse is still there, though.

Drone pilot Isak Finnbogason will be going live soon.

There isn't much they can do against the vents, but media reports that lava cooling and other mitigation measures are getting into place. Icelanders do not give up.

 

[bjdeming]

Regarding slowness, Visir interviewed a UI boffin: "...After about an hour of waiting, the lava slowly began to bubble up from the ground. In the interview, he describes how the eruption plumes reached a height of about 60-70 meters, which are not as high as they often have been in the past.

"This seems to be a bit less powerful than previous eruptions," Gregory says. "This is evolving now. This seems more like Fagradalsfjall, which was a very slow, gradual eruption that lasted a long time. We're looking at the behavior of complex systems, so by studying this we're trying to get a clue as to what might happen in the future. But this is very different from the last three eruptions, so it's a bit surprising," Gregory explains.

Given the current rate of eruption, it could be an indication that the eruption will last for a longer period of time, given how much magma measurements indicate is in the magma chamber. "It could be. As scientists, it's hard to predict at this point," Gregory ays."

 

[bjdeming]

From Isak's stream just now -- indeed, this is a LOT like Fagradalsfjall, 2021 to early 2023, and a good thing (short term, anyway) for Grindavik, which might otherwise have been badly damaged by now.

 

[bjdeming]

Again, short term. Per RUV just now: "

Magma can flow down through cracks under Grindavík and emerge within the town​

Benedikt Ófeigsson, a geophysicist and group leader for deformation measurements at the Icelandic Meteorological Office, says scientists are concerned that lava may [sic]

"There is very little flow on the southernmost crack and it is not large. It is slightly lengthening towards Grindavík."

If the lava flow is long enough, it could enter the town. "There are large cracks under Grindavík and we are concerned that magma will flow up the cracks and up somewhere within the town. That is a possibility."

That is very likely what happened in January 2024 when a crack opened inside the dams..."