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Iceland's Fagradalsfjall Fires

bjdeming

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Grindavik's opening started off quietly enough, with just a few more people coming in per news reports yesterday -- the number is expected to increase over time.

It's not the nation's #1 port in terms of annual fish haul, as far as I can tell, but Grindavik does make a significant yearly contribution to the total (aaand I can't find the link with numbers -- sorry!).

Also, Iceland has few such harbors on its southern coast, so they really do need this opening for business.

But it makes the job of public safety authorities difficult -- the local police chief expressed his concerns in an interview yesterday -- and it has the volcanologists apparently working extra hard to get people to understand the uncertainty in all this.

At least that's the impression I got while reading today's IMO update. Via GT:

Landris and magma accumulation under Svartsengi continues​

Model calculations show that the volume of magma is now about 2/3 of what was accumulated before the last eruption, on August 22​

22.10.2024







Updated October 22 at 15:20

  • GPS measurements and model calculations in the Svartsengis area show that landrising and magma accumulation continue
  • Based on continued magma inflow at a similar rate, the lower uncertainty limit on magma volume can be expected to be reached at the beginning of November
  • The risk assessment is valid until October 29, all things being equal




Landris and magma accumulation under Svartsengi continues at a similar pace to the last few weeks. Earthquake activity has increased slightly in the last few days, although not much, about five earthquakes per day in the magma corridor. The largest measured M1.5 in size.

Lessons learned from previous magma flows and eruptions are useful in estimating how much magma must be added beneath Svartsengi to trigger the next event. The period in which magma flows and even volcanic eruptions are considered to be more likely is marked by lower and upper uncertainty limits

Model calculations based on GPS data show that the volume of magma is now approximately 2/3 of what it accumulated before it erupted last August 22. Based on continued magma inflow at a similar rate, it can be expected that the lower uncertainty limit on the volume of magma will be reached at the beginning of November.

If a significant increase in seismic activity is measured at a similar time, it can be assumed that the probability of a new magma flow and a possible volcanic eruption has begun to increase. The probability of that will gradually increase as more magma is added and seismic activity increases.

Mogi_22102024

A graph showing the development of magma accumulation and the estimated total amount of magma in the magma chamber under Svartsengi from October 25. The total volume of magma under Svartsengi is now approximately 2/3 of what accumulated before it erupted last August 22.'

Volume estimated by model calculations​



The volume of the magma that has accumulated under Svartsengi since the end of the last eruption is estimated according to model calculations at 14 million cubic meters. It is estimated that about 24 million cubic meters of magma was released from the magma chamber in the last eruption, which began on August 22nd last, and was the largest eruption in this sequence of events. In these model calculations, the uncertainty is +/- 5 million cubic meters. The volume of magma under Svartsengi will therefore be brought to a position similar to that before the last eruption when it reaches the interval delimited by the "lower uncertainty limit" (19 million cubic meters) and the "upper uncertainty limit" (29 million cubic meters).



The models, which are based on GPS data and are updated daily, indicate how much volume has accumulated since the last magma flow and can be used to estimate when the uncertainty limit is reached. The models are based on an estimated magma inflow at any given time, and small changes in that flow can affect the final estimate. It is difficult to estimate how far beyond the previous limit on the volume of magma can increase before eruption begins. The trend has been that the time between eruptions is getting longer, as the amount of magma needed to trigger the next magma flow or eruption seems to increase with time. It may be necessary to assume that the risk of an eruption is considered high for several weeks before the magma flow and possible eruption begins.

A real forecasting nightmare.
 

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There is no immediate major development but there is news, and I summed up the complex but hazardous situation as best as possible in this blog post's November 4 update.

Basically, a seismic swarm at the old eruption site near Grindavik and the power plant had IMO staff, who reportedly do expect an intrusion/eruption later this month, checking their instruments.

No eruption precursors were seen and no lava has appeared anywhere or seems imminent as a new flow any time soon.

But the swarm location highlights the fact that eruption could occur in the same place as earlier in the series -- an eruption expected to be up to 30% larger than the last one (which was the largest thus far) -- and already older lavas are up to the top of barrier walls and have overtopped them in some places.

:(

Hopefully, it won't.
 

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IMO did an update today; the hazard assessment isn't mentioned.

Per Google Translate:

A brief earthquake sequence on the Sundhnúks crater series​

No signs of deformation or pressure changes were seen on GPS meters, fiber optics or in HS-Orku's boreholes, which would be signs of magma flow.​

4.11.2024







Updated November 4 at 15:20

  • The location of the earthquakes in similar areas as at the beginning of the last magma flows
  • The seismic activity possibly indicates that a small amount of magma was moving
  • No earthquakes have been reported since last night and magma accumulation continues


Between Between 2 and 3 a.m. there was a series of small earthquakes between Sýlingarfell and Stóra-Scógfell. More than twenty earthquakes of around and below M1.0 magnitude were measured at a depth of 3 to 6 km. The location of the earthquakes is very similar to earthquakes that have been observed at the beginning of the magma flows that have occurred in the Sundhnúks crater series over the past year. The earthquake was short-lived and no earthquakes had been recorded there since 4 in the night.

Map earthquakes06112024

The map shows the location of earthquakes between 2 and 4 in the night. Dark red lines are fissures on the Sundhnúks crater series from December 2023 to August 2024. The red line is the part of the fissure that was active the longest during the last eruption. The gray cover shows the extent of the lava formed in the last eruption from August 22nd to September 5th. The location of the eruption fissure and the lava bed is based on data from the imaging team of the National Institute of Natural Sciences and Landmæring Iceland.

There were no signs of deformation of GPS meters or fiber optic cables, nor pressure changes in HS-Orku's boreholes in Svartsengi. When magma has flowed from Svartsengi to the Sundhnúks crater series, these measuring devices have shown clear signs of it.

One possible explanation for the seismic activity tonight is magma movements that stopped before magma flow occurred. No signs of changes in the magma accumulation under Svartsengi have appeared on the Met Office's meters following the earthquake.

According to the National Weather Service's response plans, civil defense was notified of the earthquake and informed that experts were assessing whether a magma flow had begun. As there were no other signs of magma flow, it was decided not to take any further measures tonight.
 

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This is just government costs -- ? the private sector (Iceland reportedly has a socialism/capitalism type of economy) The linked report probably is in Icelandic.

Per mbl.is (autotranslated):

The total expenditures and investments of the Icelandic government due to earthquakes on the Reykjanes Peninsula are estimated at 80 billion ISK in the years 2023-2024.

Of this, the contribution of the treasury to Fasteignafélagin Þórkatla weighs the most, 51.5 billion. ISK The total cost of building defenses at Grindavík and Svartsengi amounts to 9.9 billion. ISK
This is stated in a report from the Prime Minister on the government's main projects and assessment of future prospects due to earthquakes and fires on the Reykjanes Peninsula. Tomorrow it will be one year since a magma tunnel formed under Grindavík...
 

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The IMO update today reports that a new eruption is unlikely in November, but in a separate interview Benedikt told mbl.is that all the signs are there for an eruption similar to the others whenever it finally does occur -- it just takes a larger amount of magma to trigger the next eruption.

He also notes that seismicity, while low, has been mostly in the new site area -- I hope the next eruption will be up there, too.
 

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Surprise!

Here's the IMO page on it (autotranslated).
 

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Fortunately, the weather allowed Isak to get out with his drone:



The live stream ended about an hour ago.

IMO said they would update everyone at 10 a.m., local time, and in the meantime post major news on Facebook overnight -- there's no news at the moment.

The Southern Volcanoes group notes, per Google translation, that the fissure opened right near the Sundhnuks craters and headed northeast. It grew to 3 km long and has stopped (per IMO).
 

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Yep. No confirmation yet in online news (RUV, mbl.is, Visir) but they did say this was expected. From this direction, the power plant reportedly is well protected.
 
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Looks like there are some steam explosions, too -- puddles and pockets of water. The weather has been stormy there recently, plus longer term water accumulation probably occurred.
 

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If the police weren't driving around on them, we'd never be able to see the barriers. Dawn doesn't come for another 3-1/2 hours. Sigh.

The initial eruption rate IMO reported was half that of the last eruption's (which was powerful). A good thing, too, or maybe that insulation they put on the new geothermal heat pipeline after February's disaster would be having a severe test right now (don't think it's anywhere near this flow).
 

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Took a break, and on coming back and checking the cam, saw a power flash on a wide field of lava near an electrical transmission pylon -- somebody somewhere is losing power.

Also, the news reports now say that the geothermal pipeline will go under, but it is buried. It will get that severe test after all.
 

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Also, the geothermal pipeline is covered, but RUV reports that it is holding thus far.

There is a good mbl.is article (autotranslated) about the Blue Lagoon situation and a striking wide-angle image:

Photos: A natural threshold to take over​


Overlooking the Blue Lagoon, the new lava, the defense wall and a natural threshold...

View over the Blue Lagoon, the new lava, the rampart and the natural barrier that directs the lava to the west. The picture is taken with a 360° camera, so it is a wide picture and the proportions are slightly skewed. Next in the picture is the road that crosses the rampart, but you can see that an old lava border runs just beyond and to the west. The lava rim acts as a natural threshold and pushes the lava to the west. Photo/Jakob Kristian Vegerfors

That natural barrier is now directing the lava westward. :) Apparently the parking lot and that one building were outside the main barrier, which they were able to close off in time.

Grindavik did lose power when that line went down but the company switched over to backup generators and is now reportedly planning to go in for repairs (somehow) when the eruption is over.

This magma package is mobile!

The lava has travelled farther west than in earlier eruptions and (I think) moves faster, too. Wonder why -- the sampling info will be interesting (on a lay level, of course, to see if they say it is different from earlier lavas).

PS: IMO's map of the lava field at 11 a.m., local, before the pipeline and Blue Lagoon infrastructure were flooded.

21112024_hraun_eldgos.png
 
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The view of things from Iceland is reportedly very different from those of us who haven't lived on the volcano all our lives:

Look at the news with different eyes​


Birgir says that they are worried about news coverage of the volcanic eruptions and says that foreigners may not appreciate the news in the same way as we do.

"They can see that lava is coming to the most popular place in the country and perhaps judge it as a dangerous situation and therefore not intend to come near it."

He says that coverage is viewed differently abroad than here, where we have experienced many eruptions.

"We're like, 'Yeah okay, one more eruption' but they're just like, 'Listen, there's an eruption and it's almost going over the Blue Lagoon.'"

-- Source (autotranslated)
 

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Things seem to be settled into the usual pattern now, with decreased flow somewhat; no craters yet, but three vents, with the central one strongest and also still the source of that now sluggish lava flow, currently heading north, along the Svartsengi barriers.

The insulation on the crucial geothermal pipeline apparently is holding up.

This news story (autotranslated) says the flow "tore up" the road -- that might be from the small steam explosions visible as the flow crossed, I think; there was also a prolonged steam explosion cloud visible on cam at a point on the Svartsengi barrier as the lava advanced -- flashing blue lights and occasional spotlights once or twice focused there but apparently it wasn't causing enough damage to threaten a breakthrough.

That mbl.is story also has a quote from the new prime minister that again shows the matter-of-fact way that Icelanders deal with these fires:

..."Overall, at this point, we feel that we have reasonably escaped damage from this eruption, but there is still some power in it and it is important to keep a close eye on it." We are mainly focusing our attention on these most important infrastructures, hot and cold water and electricity," says Bjarni.


Bjarni makes it clear that the parking lots at the Blue Reservoir need to be renovated, but on the other hand, it is the access routes that need to be ensured to be open and work is underway to assess that.


"The parking lot is a matter that the Blue Lagoon probably takes care of itself, but our role is more about looking after hot and cold water, electricity, transmission lines and the safety of people in the area," he says.

He's referring to the closure of the northern evacuation route (the lava-covered road). A southern route is open, but Civil Defense in the past has insisted that the Blue Lagoon must have two viable routes before it can open.

The power plant is operated remotely at times like this.

All in all, Iceland and Icelanders are amazing.

But geologic history reportedly shows that this could go on for decades and then start up again at another location on the peninsula. Rinse and repeat over the next couple of centuries. Sigh.
 

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Something's up this afternoon (in Iceland) and it's not clear what -- my time is a little short today so here's the blog post (link added):

November 23, 2024, 8:48 a.m., Pacific: Yesterday the prime minister said that they seemed to have escaped damage; this morning, I saw announcements that the Blue Lagoon would open on the 29th; and then, a few hours ago, both IMO and the Southern Volcanoes group posted that lava was putting pressure on the Svartsengi defenses and there was risk to infrastructure. RUV doesn’t have a story on it at the moment.


I’m not sure what’s going on, but I believe the scientists. Will wait and see what develops.


Quick update: Of the three media I follow, only Visir mentioned the lava situation and they seemed to minimize it, in light of how Southern Volcanoes describes the situation on Facebook (Google translation):


A great deal of effort is now being made to strengthen the levees at Svartsengi. The lava flow has in some places reached the height of the levees, and the flow of lava from the eruption area has slowed down little. The activity in the eruption itself has been stable today, and the conditions are such that the largest lava flow from the eruption is directly west of Svartsengi. This is the same lava flow that overflowed the Blue Lagoon parking lot on Thursday. The situation is most serious at levee L3 (see aerial photo), but there is still more scope for improvement at other parts of the levee. Lava cooling is being prepared at the levees. The edge of the lava would be cooled over a section of several hundred meters with the aim of diverting the lava flow north from the levees.
 
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