000
WTNT44 KNHC 100249
TCDAT4
Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
Earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations, WSR-88D radar
imagery and velocities, and surface synoptic data indicate that
Milton made landfall along the Florida Gulf coast just south of
Tampa around 0030 UTC. The center is now moving over central
Florida. While aircraft and Doppler velocity data indicated
a landfall intensity of near 105 kt, assuming some inland decrease
in intensity, the maximum winds are now estimated to be around 90
kt. There have been a number of surface reports of inland winds
at damaging velocities. There have also been several reports of
extreme rainfall rates, including one measurement of 5.09 inches in
an hour at St. Petersburg.
Center fixes indicate that the motion is east-northeastward, or
060/14 kt. Milton is now embedded within a belt of subtropical
mid-tropospheric westerlies, and it should move across the Florida
peninsula overnight. Afterward, the cyclone is likely to turn
generally eastward during the ensuing few days while moving over the
southwestern Atlantic waters and losing tropical characteristics.
The official track forecast is similar to the dynamical model
consensus early in the period and follows a blend of the GFS and
ECMWF solutions in 2-4 days.
The intensity guidance and the relatively fast forward speed of
Milton indicate that the system will maintain hurricane intensity
while crossing Florida. Milton is already interacting with a
frontal zone and the global models show the system becoming embedded
within the front in 24-36 hours. This guidance also suggests that
Milton will not have sufficient baroclinic forcing to maintain its
strength and will gradually spin down over the Atlantic,
dissipating after 96 hours.
Key Messages:
1. A large area of life-threatening storm surge is occurring along
portions of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula and
southwest Florida. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by damaging waves. Water levels will remain elevated into Thursday
morning.
2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially
in gusts, will spread inland across portions of the central Florida
Peninsula to the Florida east coast within the Hurricane Warning
area overnight and early Thursday. Residents should be prepared to
take shelter in an interior room and away from windows.
3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
continues to bring the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening
flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river
flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding
combine to increase the overall flood threat.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 27.6N 82.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
12H 10/1200Z 28.7N 80.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 11/0000Z 29.2N 76.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 29.3N 73.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/0000Z 29.0N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/1200Z 29.0N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/0000Z 29.5N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0000Z 31.6N 59.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
