Hurricane Hurricane Milton

[Clancy]

Oh, that'll do it.

 

[Clancy]

That Ft. Drum storm is actually producing twins right now.

 

[akt1985]

I wonder if this outbreak will beat February 23, 1998 for most tornadoes in Florida in a single day?

 

[Blountwolf]

Using the IKE Calculator (it's an estimate, not exact) from NOAA (https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/Calculator_AllQuad.php) and roughly estimating the wind fields using the 18z Best Track info and the latest advisory info, the rough estimate for IKE (Integrated Kinetic Energy) for this storm is 116 with a Surge Damage Potential (SDP) of 5.1.

For reference, Katrina had 127 and 5.2. Ian was 48 with 3.7 SDP. Ike had 133 and 5.2 SDP. Charley was 22 and 2.4 SDP. Irma was 80 and 4.5 SDP.

So it looks like an impact a la Katrina is a good analog here. It has similar IKE and similar Surge Damage Potential.

Thanks @Blountwolf for the info on IKE, super interesting!

You can really tell with historic storms that it would be an exceptionally useful and better measure. I'm in favor of a 10 year or so period where we report both, so folks can get used to the new scale - but it needs to happen, IMO.

 

[TornadoFan]

Big tornado on the ground near Lakewood Park, FL

 

[cincywx]

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL COLLIER AND CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTIES...

At 317 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over Miccosukee Indian Reservation, or 35 miles east of Ave
Maria, moving north at 45 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

for the cell west of fort lauderdale

 

[SmokeEater]

I wonder if this outbreak will beat February 23, 1998 for most tornadoes in Florida in a single day?

Wasn't there 7 that night? If that's the case this has 100% surpassed that by a few already.

 

[Clancy]

The storm has split again (third time since Fort Drum).

 

[Blountwolf]

NEXRAD Mosaic:

A repeating supply of spinning storms of various sizes.

 

[South AL Wx]

NEXRAD Mosaic:
View attachment 30775
A repeating supply of spinning storms of various sizes.

I imagine the strong shear that is helping to weaken the core of Milton is only helping to exacerbate the tornado situation.

 

[brianc33710]

NEXRAD Mosaic:
View attachment 30775
A repeating supply of spinning storms of various sizes.

Milton is trying to repair his eyewall.

 

[Blountwolf]

I imagine the strong shear that is helping to weaken the core of Milton is only helping to exacerbate the tornado situation.

Yep, the very dry continental air wrapping underneath too - we talk about the storms looking like they are from the plains, well - that's where the air they are mixing came from.

 

[Clancy]

WOW northeast of Kenansville. Looks like a Plains supercell.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[TornadoFan]

Wow.

 

[TH2002]

Proximity to the radar site is likely playing a role here, but yeah, I have to say that is one of the more textbook supercells I’ve seen come from a TC related setup:

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That's a strong tornado

 

[warneagle]

whew that is a deep TDS

 

[TornadoFan]

TDS SW of Port St. Lucie?

 

[TornadoFan]

Two areas of very strong rotation over Vero Beach.