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Hurricane Hurricane Milton

The Ft. Drum storm just did one heck of a handoff, a new circulation has developed a very distinct hook.
1728499532432.png
 
"Whatcha doing, Milton?"

"Oh nothing - just still firing off -80C cloud tops in 40kts of shear to try to build back my eyewall"

1728499376307.png


Smaller convective bursts and less effective now, but impressive it's still happening, none the less. I think the chances of it closing the eyewall are slim to none at this point, but this is Milton we are talking about, so never say never.
 
New TORP for the Ft. Drum storm. While this new circulation continues to develop, a tornado could form at any time at this point.
920
WFUS52 KMLB 091846
TORMLB
FLC009-061-093-097-091930-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0036.241009T1846Z-241009T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
246 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northeastern Okeechobee County in east central Florida...
Western Indian River County in east central Florida...
South central Brevard County in east central Florida...
Southeastern Osceola County in east central Florida...

* Until 330 PM EDT.

* At 246 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
was located 7 miles northeast of Fort Drum, moving north at 30 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
destruction is possible.

* The tornado will be near...
Blue Cypress Lake around 250 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move
to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying
debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2756 8068 2754 8085 2786 8098 2789 8068
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 174DEG 28KT 2762 8076

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

$$

Fehling
1728499647779.png
 
"Whatcha doing, Milton?"

"Oh nothing - just still firing off -80C cloud tops in 40kts of shear to try to build back my eyewall"

View attachment 30762


Smaller convective bursts and less effective now, but impressive it's still happening, none the less. I think the chances of it closing the eyewall are slim to none at this point, but this is Milton we are talking about, so never say never.
I was just fixing to comment that it looks like it's trying to clear out
 
I was just fixing to comment that it looks like it's trying to clear out
Nah, no way at this point - I was just being impressed by the cloud heights.
 
New TOG NNE of Ft. Drum.
1728499809045.png
 
This Ft. Drum cell did another handoff, new circulation east of the previous. Due east of Yeehaw Junction (this is now my favorite town name).
1728500539410.png
 
I have to admit, I am thrilled at how much it has now weakened. As others have said repeatedly - not to take away anything from the still historically bad landfall and surge coming, but I am REALLY happy that the HAFS models were right about the extent and timing of the weakening. We all questioned the sub-900 output and it hit it, and similarly we questioned whether the weakening before landfall would happen, because the stakes were so high if it didn't. Yes, it's still going to be horrible, but a weakening storm - even with tornadoes and carrying a devastating surge - still beats a Cat5 landfall ANY day.
 
Nah, no way at this point - I was just being impressed by the cloud heights.
Yes I see now. Forgive me. I was looking at old satellite data. Sorry bout that.
 
Newest update from NHC. Pressure 948 mb, winds 130. Obviously, catastrophic surge still expected.
345
WTNT64 KNHC 091859
TCUAT4

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
300 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...MULTIPLE TORNADO WARNINGS IN EFFECT ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA...

Tropical-storm-force winds are now moving onshore the west coast of
Florida. There are also multiple tornado warnings in effect across
the Florida peninsula.

If a tornado warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding.

The next update will be at 400 PM EDT (2000 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 83.7W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake
 
On Ryan’s stream, there’s apparently people on the beach “waiting for storm surge!”

You can’t fix stupid. It takes a lot for me to call people that, but come on. That is unreal.

Nature correcting its mistakes. Likely it will save them beforehand with stinging blowing sand - tends to cut down on stupidity. But if not - more permanent correction.
 
Using the IKE Calculator (it's an estimate, not exact) from NOAA (https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/Calculator_AllQuad.php) and roughly estimating the wind fields using the 18z Best Track info and the latest advisory info, the rough estimate for IKE (Integrated Kinetic Energy) for this storm is 116 with a Surge Damage Potential (SDP) of 5.1.

For reference, Katrina had 127 and 5.2. Ian was 48 with 3.7 SDP. Ike had 133 and 5.2 SDP. Charley was 22 and 2.4 SDP. Irma was 80 and 4.5 SDP.

So it looks like an impact a la Katrina is a good analog here. It has similar IKE and similar Surge Damage Potential.

Thanks @Blountwolf for the info on IKE, super interesting!
 
some of the same areas hit when these tornadic cells kicked off 5-6 hours ago are in the path of this clear hook to the west of fort lauderdale (moving northward):

1728500958790.png


1728501130808.png


edit: certainly looks like a bwer on this cell in subsequent scans.
 
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