warneagle
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yeah that explains a lot
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Hurricane Hurricane Milton
- Thread starter KevinH
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wx_guy
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Latest Vortex Data Message. The eye walls are entirely degraded now, and only 1/3 of the inner and outer eye walls remain. This may be a Cat 2 on landfall. Still devastating, though.
Two pds tornado warning
"Whatcha doing, Milton?"
"Oh nothing - just still firing off -80C cloud tops in 40kts of shear to try to build back my eyewall"
Smaller convective bursts and less effective now, but impressive it's still happening, none the less. I think the chances of it closing the eyewall are slim to none at this point, but this is Milton we are talking about, so never say never.
"Oh nothing - just still firing off -80C cloud tops in 40kts of shear to try to build back my eyewall"
Smaller convective bursts and less effective now, but impressive it's still happening, none the less. I think the chances of it closing the eyewall are slim to none at this point, but this is Milton we are talking about, so never say never.
I was just fixing to comment that it looks like it's trying to clear out
Nah, no way at this point - I was just being impressed by the cloud heights.
SmokeEater
Member
This is insane, vehicles flipped on I-95 near Port St Lucie.
Looks like a new pds near yeehaw junction
Deeper cc the next scan! And strong couplet
I have to admit, I am thrilled at how much it has now weakened. As others have said repeatedly - not to take away anything from the still historically bad landfall and surge coming, but I am REALLY happy that the HAFS models were right about the extent and timing of the weakening. We all questioned the sub-900 output and it hit it, and similarly we questioned whether the weakening before landfall would happen, because the stakes were so high if it didn't. Yes, it's still going to be horrible, but a weakening storm - even with tornadoes and carrying a devastating surge - still beats a Cat5 landfall ANY day.
On Ryan’s stream, there’s apparently people on the beach “waiting for storm surge!”
You can’t fix stupid. It takes a lot for me to call people that, but come on. That is unreal.
You can’t fix stupid. It takes a lot for me to call people that, but come on. That is unreal.
Yes I see now. Forgive me. I was looking at old satellite data. Sorry bout that.
Nature correcting its mistakes. Likely it will save them beforehand with stinging blowing sand - tends to cut down on stupidity. But if not - more permanent correction.
wx_guy
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Using the IKE Calculator (it's an estimate, not exact) from NOAA (https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/Calculator_AllQuad.php) and roughly estimating the wind fields using the 18z Best Track info and the latest advisory info, the rough estimate for IKE (Integrated Kinetic Energy) for this storm is 116 with a Surge Damage Potential (SDP) of 5.1.
For reference, Katrina had 127 and 5.2. Ian was 48 with 3.7 SDP. Ike had 133 and 5.2 SDP. Charley was 22 and 2.4 SDP. Irma was 80 and 4.5 SDP.
So it looks like an impact a la Katrina is a good analog here. It has similar IKE and similar Surge Damage Potential.
Thanks @Blountwolf for the info on IKE, super interesting!
For reference, Katrina had 127 and 5.2. Ian was 48 with 3.7 SDP. Ike had 133 and 5.2 SDP. Charley was 22 and 2.4 SDP. Irma was 80 and 4.5 SDP.
So it looks like an impact a la Katrina is a good analog here. It has similar IKE and similar Surge Damage Potential.
Thanks @Blountwolf for the info on IKE, super interesting!
cincywx
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some of the same areas hit when these tornadic cells kicked off 5-6 hours ago are in the path of this clear hook to the west of fort lauderdale (moving northward):
edit: certainly looks like a bwer on this cell in subsequent scans.
edit: certainly looks like a bwer on this cell in subsequent scans.