Hurricane Hurricane Milton

[UncleJuJu98]

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the newer soundings are bad looking like violent tornadoes could be possible

also ive been slowly building some sort of severity thingy for google sheets , while not finish , some parts are but its the first time the libretext's parameter is showing it say EF5 for worst case ....
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It's kindve rare for a environment like this in middle/South Florida. Don't see a hatched or 10% usually in that area.

 

[Richardjacks]

Ita going to be rough in south Florida , well ahead of Milton.

 

[TH2002]

TOG in the Everglades.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

TOG in the Everglades.
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It's only 7 o'clock, we can't start the confirmed warnings this early lol

 

[warneagle]

Tornado watch is out, 80/20

 

[TH2002]

It's only 7 o'clock, we can't start the confirmed warnings this early lol

Clocking in at 5:30 AM where I live. Lately, my internal alarm clock has decided I must get up at no later than 4 AM.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Tornado watch is out, 80/20

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That's high percentages... Wow!

 

[Blountwolf]

So far the blob is helping Milton compensate for the loss of the Yucatan moisture feed and keeping that core insulated. The sooner we get the forecast dry air entrainment the better, though as others have said - the catastrophic surge is likely baked in already. If we can get those winds down to Cat3 level at landfall, that would at least be something, though spreading these out may result in more damage over a wider area at these speeds. Time to suck in dry air and rip apart, Milton. Chop chop.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Gnarly hook echo west of . Miami

 

[Richardjacks]

I believe Milton is going through an ewrc.

 

[brianc33710]

I estimate 135 at landfall & the landfall will take place further north than currently forecast, but not much. I say in the southern part of Tampa Bay between St Pete & Bradenton.

 

[brianc33710]

I believe Milton is going through an ewrc.
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I have to wonder if that "blob" could/would work to "protect" Milton from the dry air & shear to his west.

 

[Blountwolf]

I believe Milton is going through an ewrc.

It will be hard for it to pull it off without sucking in dry air from the NW with it in that close proximity, but that's one heck of a convection flare. I wonder if that's what HAFS saw happening this morning that weakens it so dramatically on its output? Failed EWRC?

 

[warneagle]

New update maintains 155 mph but increases pressure slightly to 918 mb.

 

[MikeP]

Is it me or is the west side of the core starting to blow up again? Looks like it on sat....

 

[Richardjacks]

Milton isnt giving up easily, this new eye wall on the northwest side shows dry air is not entering just yet. I wouldn't be surprised if we see some strengthening later this morning as the new eye wall contracts.

 

[Richardjacks]

Is it me or is the west side of the core starting to blow up again? Looks like it on sat....

Yep, milton is building a new eye wall and it seems to be building it quickly

 

[Blountwolf]

Milton isnt giving up easily, this new eye wall on the northwest side shows dry air is not entering just yet. I wouldn't be surprised if we see some strengthening later this morning as the new eye wall contracts.

I think maybe he sucked in some during the ebb in convection. Fingers crossed.

 

[Blountwolf]

Whoever made this was spot on. Milton's been full of "but wait, there's more!"

 

[Atlantic]

I read one of these posts as "Milton is going through an oven"