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Hurricane Hurricane Milton

Shear and dry air look like they are starting to take quite a toll on his overall organization. He’s still putting up a good fight and the eye looks organized well on radar still.

Hope this trend continues and he can wind down to a lower cat 3 and come ashore around 955-960mb, though that may be too optimistic
 
Jacob said:
Shear and dry air look like they are starting to take quite a toll on his overall organization. He’s still putting up a good fight and the eye looks organized well on radar still.

Hope this trend continues and he can wind down to a lower cat 3 and come ashore around 955-960mb, though that may be too optimistic
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I expect a Cat 4 with winds between 130-145 mph at landfall right now. If it begins weakening quicker than anticipated than I might revise that downward.
 
From what I said on 3 pages back: And this is just my meteorological opinion about these "blobs". I'm wondering if these blobs act like a shield or force field to protect the storm somewhat plus moisten the atmosphere out ahead of the storm to make the atmosphere more conducive for it to maintain intensity longer.
 
Atlantic said:
I expect a Cat 4 with winds between 130-145 mph at landfall right now. If it begins weakening quicker than anticipated than I might revise that downward.
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If I was making the forecast I wouldn’t be a lot weaker than that, probably 125-130. So right at that cat 3/4 level.
 
The dry air is winning, and will likely mean a transition of the storm as the HAFS model indicated. I would caution against thinking this is going to be a win for FL though - as others have mentioned, the wind speeds will be slightly less, but over a larger area. Would you rather have a swath of 150mph winds 20 miles wide, or 120mph winds 100 miles wide? (example only, not a calculation). That's the kind of tradeoff we're talking about here - and theoretically, this could make the surge worse, al la superstorm Sandy.

1728482655342.png
 
These cells ahead of Milton's landfall have so far been efficient tornado producers, thankfully largely in the middle of nowhere.
weston1.png
 
Oh shoot
 
Thankfully that one is still basically in the middle of nowhere so there's not much for it to hit but that's still a really intense couplet.

The cell coming onshore to the south is trying to get its act together too.
 
Key West reporting 32mph sustained with 51mph gusts. Very impressive considered they're well outside the reported wind field on NHC maps.

Based on webcams, definitely some surge coming up there, too. Maybe 3 feet.

Could be a bad sign for surge farther up the coast.
 
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