Hurricane Hurricane Milton

Here we go again...
 
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Milton vs. Dry air/shear entrainment
 
The storm has stalled in forwards motion for now and its plotted track on zoom earth is moving on without it.

Ultimate betrayal
 
I really wish there was less model consensus on this being a direct path up Tampa bay.
 
Wobble watching begins in earnest today, but all signs are pointing to the mouth of Tampa Bay as the most likely landfall. Crazy. Here's the difference 20 miles could make in the landfall impacts for surge (just my analysis):

1) Current track (Anna Marie Island landfall)

Tampa Bay gets onshore flow for at least 12 hours. Winds will start to shift just before landfall, but the main wind vector for most of the bay will still be onshore (roughly due northeast, or NNE). The northern bay will get offshore flow starting around landfall, but this won't help push the surge out of the bay since most of surge will have entered the bay already. It may cause an amplified surge on east side of the bay, particularly for St. Pete and Old Tampa Bay.

This would be the 10-12 foot scenario for Tampa. Siesta Key to Anna Marie Island get 15+ feet of surge.

2) 20 miles north (Clearwater landfall)

Tampa Bay gets onshore flow for at least 12 hours + the eyewall, which will also have an onshore wind vector. This is likely the absolute worst case scenario for surge due to the constant onshore flow throughout landfall.

This would be the 12-15ft scenario for Tampa, 15+ feet for Madeira Beach down to Siesta Key

3) 20 miles south

If Milton jogs 20 miles south of the current track, Tampa Bay is spared most of the surge impacts (although some reverse surge is possible). Tampa will experience onshore flow for 6-8 hours before landfall, but winds will abruptly shift to the ENE and push water out of the bay.

In this scenario, Tampa might see 5-6 feet of surge. Siesta Key to Venice would get 15+ feet, and Ft Myers Beach / Sanibel would see substantial, 10-12ft surge as well.
 
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RI under way. I don't know if it will reach yesterday's intensity but I wouldn't bet against or for it.
I'm most concerned with the surge into Tampa Bay. I've read some opinions that 40' to 50' waves could be on top of that.
With a 15' to 20' surge and waves that high, well.........get the he11 outta dodge.
 
For those that haven't, use Google earth to look at Tampa Bay and check out all the development. Especially the seaside developments. There is also a huge airforce base right on the water.
IF Milton does what we think, we are probably looking at 150 billion+ in damages. Could be lots more than that.

The loss of life ( if people don't leave ) could, and most likely will, be high also.
I really hope people are leaving.

I have two coworkers in EMS that have already been deployed to northern Florida. Several different EMS companies are sending ambulances in anticipation of landfall.
 
Tops cooling on the northern eyewall again. Very perfectly round presentation to the eye now.
 
I think this will honestly go for a second Category 5 peak with the appearance it has now.
 
He's about to go gang busters, AGAIN.
This is pretty much unprecedented.
Has this ever happened before? This fast to a cat 5, back to a 4, then back to a 5?
It seems like lately every storm has rewritten the book. Just crazy stuff.
 
tornado examiner said:
Its stilled significantly slowed btw the track map is becoming inaccurate quickly.
Click to expand...
Just wobbles and optical illusions based on the way it's fired, I expect. Expected to actually accelerate NE.
 
Just changed my banner from Hurricane Hilary on Zoom Earth last year to Milton's peak on TropicalTidbits satellite to honor the storm' peak. This will be one storm for the books of a very strange season indeed.
 
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