Lightning is beginning to increase again in and near the eye.
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Hurricane Hurricane Milton
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
brianc33710
Member
I lived in Tampa Bay for almost 12 years. My heart never left. Obviously my username includes a St Pete zip code. I don't think Milton will make landfall as a 5 but I do tend to think 135, or lower Cat 4, is a good estimate. I don't see 125, given his overperformance to this point & the best intensification ingredients in place Tuesday pm. If Milton grows both bigger & stronger the shear & dry air could take longer to weaken him.
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I will be shocked if it continues to climb. I fully expect the pressure to drop again.
gangstonc
Member
It will have to complete its ERC before it will drop again.
I am cautiously optimistic that we are seeing a close enough pass to the Yucatan to potentially see some negative land interaction effects on Milton. Notice the flattening on the SE side.
Evan
Member
Raw # up to 8.0. Absolutely unbelievable for a storm outside of the Pacific.
I am not convinced we know what an EWRC looks like in a storm of this magnitude, with this structure, and in this area. It is unprecedented. It is logical to assume there would be weakening, and a lull in intensification, due to the EWRC, but we just don't have analogs here for how this particular storm will react.
I have not seen even the slightest disruption to this storm's structure and presentation. So far, it is handling the EWRC like it is a minimal annoyance.
I am not convinced we know what an EWRC looks like in a storm of this magnitude, with this structure, and in this area. It is unprecedented. It is logical to assume there would be weakening, and a lull in intensification, due to the EWRC, but we just don't have analogs here for how this particular storm will react.
I have not seen even the slightest disruption to this storm's structure and presentation. So far, it is handling the EWRC like it is a minimal annoyance.
Evan
Member
I can't recall ever seeing an Atlantic hurricane with a Dvorak at 8. Lightning continues to increase on latest Infrared Satellite
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I don't know honestly - I'm throwing out something to hope for, because it's going to look like doom north of the channel I expect. You can already see that series of storms just over Cancun becoming a major feeder. Every storm I've ever seen with an eastern feeder vertical in the channel like that just goes nuts - and then to pass over the loop current moving east - we just have no idea, I expect. Insane to be saying that about a storm of this magnitude already - I just have no idea what it's going to do with the loop current.
For what it's worth, Tomer Burg's website has Milton as a 175mph category 5 with pressure up to 901mb at 00 UTC, but it had nearly the same thing at 18 UTC.
TornadoFan
Member
NHC update takes it down to 165 MPH and up to 914 MB.
brianc33710
Member
They've edged the track just S of Tampa Bay again. And they have the max winds from here at 165. I could see another run at 185 Tuesday given the ideal conditions.
I can too. The EWRC was just a bump so to speak and unless shear takes over quicker than forecasted, this has a run at higher intensity.
I should have put shear in quotes because we know how the shear and dry air have just been a huge hinderance this season with knocking out these big storms.
18Z HAFS-B brings it back down to a 901 at 39 hours, then weakens from there to landfall.
HAFS-A has the same drop over the loop, but just to 913, and then has the most dramatic weakening before landfall.
HAFS-A has the same drop over the loop, but just to 913, and then has the most dramatic weakening before landfall.
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Question: with the extraordinarily compact eye and very deep central pressure, why wasn’t the windspeed on this thing higher than a storm like Irma or Dorian? They had larger eyes and higher central pressures.
gangstonc
Member
Seems like Milton will pass over the loop current tomorrow with a much larger eye.
I'm not sure. I know it takes time for the winds to catch up with the pressure falls with some storms. I'll leave that for someone smarter than I am.
HWRF is less dramatic with the swings - steadily very slowly rising pressure from here until the loop current, brief trip down from 930s to 920s while over the loop, then back up slowly with landfall still in the 940s. Guess we'll see - HAFS has handled Milton well so far on intensity by being bullish.