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Hurricane Hurricane Milton

wx_guy said:
Wow, now NHC calls for 155 mph peak, right on the cusp of a Cat 5. I think this will get to Cat 5 honestly, and maybe pretty soon.
Click to expand...

And it's getting sheared on its northern side, but that's helping it ventilate. Perfect placement and strength of the Upper-Level Trough, and Milton is tracking ESE with along with the Western Portion of ULAC. Also that 700Mb vortex off the SW Coast of Florida is probably helping to pull Milton South.
wg8vor1.gifTrough. wg8shr.gif
 
141 Knot (161 MPH) Flight Level Winds found by Mission 7 Aircraft. Supports the 154.2 MPH Surface Wind found by Mission 8 Plane.

Milton (2024) - Sonde - Atlantic NOAA Miss. 7 - Tropical Atlantic

View decoded Dropsonde Observations (DROP) available for Milton in 2024 from NOAA mission 7 in the North Atlantic basin.
tropicalatlantic.com
 
Milton needs to start moving more due easterly fast, a continued southeasterly motion like it’s doing now and it’ll make landfall along coast of the northern Yucatán. It’s already playing much closer than what guidance earlier showed.
 
Taylor Campbell said:
Milton needs to start moving more due easterly fast, a continued southeasterly motion like it’s doing now and it’ll make landfall along coast of the northern Yucatán. It’s already playing much closer than what guidance earlier showed.
Click to expand...
Let it hit the Yucatan if it wants. Anything to negatively impact it is VERY much wanted.
 
000
WTNT64 KNHC 071305
TCUAT4

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
805 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

Data from both Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has
strengthened to a category 4 hurricane. The maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 150 mph (240 km/h). Milton is a category
4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data
from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has
fallen to 940 mb (27.76 inches).

These changes will be reflected in the normal 10 AM CDT (1500 UTC)
advisory.


SUMMARY OF 805 AM CDT...1305 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 92.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 735 MI...11185 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
Click to expand...
 
Taylor Campbell said:
Milton needs to start moving more due easterly fast, a continued southeasterly motion like it’s doing now and it’ll make landfall along coast of the northern Yucatán. It’s already playing much closer than what guidance earlier showed.
Click to expand...

Already looks like it's started moving due East as it rotates around the vortex to its NE. You can see the upper level steering is also shifting from SE to E.

wg8vor5.gifwg8dlm6.gif0266341c-b1c5-4b4d-8905-1b1a6c71d1e8.jpg
 
slenker said:
Although I still find it unlikely, if I were to bet on any storm these past few years intensifying into a sub 900 mbar storm, this one is it.
Click to expand...

What are the terms? Environment isn't that good. :p


Winds of 165 Knots (190MPH) found not too far from the surface. Might be an error.

Milton (2024) - Sonde - Atlantic NOAA Miss. 7 - Tropical Atlantic

View decoded Dropsonde Observations (DROP) available for Milton in 2024 from NOAA mission 7 in the North Atlantic basin.
tropicalatlantic.com
 
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