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Hurricane Hurricane Milton

Until we actually get this Caribbean/Gulf disturbance to form, the models will be everywhere. If someone says this is headed into Florida again at this juncture, don't believe it. We have no idea how intense or where this ends up going. The forecast models provide ideas of where it **might** go, but it shouldn't be seen as a 100% guarantee.
 
Wording still keeps the system as a depression. No mention of development into a tropical storm or hurricane….. at this time.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Isaac, located several hundred miles northwest of the Azores, and on Tropical Storm Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

2. Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week while the disturbance meanders towards the west northwest. This system is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter portion of this week, and interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor its progress.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
 
Richardjacks said:
I think given the background pattern at play recently, and likely to conitinue, and climatology, with some confidence, a hard left to Mexio and Texas seems unlikely.
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Yeah. it's hard to hit Mexico or Texas this time of year. Central Louisiana to Florida is still fair game.
 
KevinH said:
And the NHC wording does not seem to be conducive to a storm that will develop all that much.
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Maybe I am wrong, but I don't read it that way....to me it says that a depression could form within that timeframe....beyond that is not covered but interests should keep an eye on the depression....becuase it could develop further is implied
 
Well, I decided not to put all the crap back on the front porch. Especially after the last mast exodus here in Franklin County, FL All my stuff I threw in my car is sitting in the dining room so I can grab it and go, again.
 
18z run is currently in progress. 12z still showed a storm, albeit weaker than what it has been showing.
 
The latest TWO dropped the chance for development to 40%, and it seems like it has slowed down some (haven't been able to look at the models too closely yet):

"1. Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A large and disorganized area of low pressure located over the
western and southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing some shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions could become
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form in a few days while the system is over the southern Gulf of
Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. While interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system, the timetable for
potential development has shifted later toward late week or this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent."
 
Up to 50% now in the Gulf:

1728065137583.png

"1. Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico is
producing widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. A broad area
of low pressure is expected to develop from this system over the
southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or
two, and additional subsequent development is possible while the low
moves slowly eastward or northeastward. A tropical or subtropical
depression or storm could form during the early to middle part of
next week if the low remains separate from a frontal boundary that
is forecast to extend across the Gulf of Mexico next week.
Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy
rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days
and over portions of the Florida Peninsula late this weekend into
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent."
 
So is this thread still going about the Gulf event, even though it's not on the 5th anymore? Just making sure.

Development is up to 10/50 this afternoon, and the models are definitely wanting to cook with it over the past 24 hours.
 
Looks like the Gulf threat is back in this thread for now - the models are definitely picking up on this mischief again. It would be a BAD scenario for the Tampa/St. Pete area to get 10-20 inches of rain preceding a tropical system of any strength, especially when coastal areas are still cleaning up and recovering from Helene's storm surge.
 
The GFS, Euro, Canadian, and ICON (German) models all have a TS/Hurricane coming into the Peninsula. Definitely gotta watch.


1728066837713.png

1728066882920.png
1728066943642.png

1728066981068.png
 
wx_guy said:
So is this thread still going about the Gulf event, even though it's not on the 5th anymore? Just making sure.

Development is up to 10/50 this afternoon, and the models are definitely wanting to cook with it over the past 24 hours.
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I thought this would be another hurricane around this time, but it looks like this is going to end up being the potential Florida Flood event. I think? lol

October 5 has not passed l…. yet. I’ll update the date lol
 
Now that we have an "X" on the AOI, I wonder if we'll get an Invest soon? We probably should, so that way the hurricane models can start running. We're within 5 days of the landfall, so the entire path will be on them. I expect an Invest at 8 (maybe I'm wrong) and the hurricane models running overnight at the 0z runs. Let's see if I'm right.

EDIT: JK, I'm wrong -- they already updated for 8 tonight. But the AOI is up to 30/70.

EDIT2: Invest 92L it is
 
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Red hatch out for the GOM.
1. Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical or
subtropical depression or storm is likely to form late this weekend
or early next week while the system moves eastward or northeastward
across the Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the Florida Peninsula and
the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy
rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or
two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Click to expand...
1728090905785.png

Edit: Not sure if posts related to this prospective system belong in this thread or not, will let mods make that decision.
talkweather.com

October 5 Tropical event?

Possible system around Oct 5 according to some models to potentially impact the US. Something to watch? Post in thread '2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season' https://talkweather.com/threads/2024-atlantic-hurricane-season.2208/post-129435
talkweather.com talkweather.com
 
I've seen a lot of different models track this into central/south Florida by mid next week. I've also seen them mostly forecast it to be a weak system from either a depression to a minimal hurricane. However, there have been more than a handful of times an operational run from the ICON, EURO, CMC, or GFS, and ensemble members want to bomb the system into a major hurricane. Those odds seem to be on an upward trend as of recent.
 
Went to bed thinking this would be a minor gulf threat.

Woke up to a rapidly organizing invest with excellent satellite presentation and deterministic models spitting out a CAT 4 / 5 Tampa Bay landfall.

What.
 
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