Hurricane Hurricane Milton

I would not be surprised if HAFS-B nails the next 24 hours - it simply can not continue deepening at this rate without a EWRC, and ingestion of (comparatively) drier air off the Yucatan as it moves east might be possible then. However, when it passes the peninsula, the inflow is up the channel, and the water is part of the hot loop current that comes up out of the Caribbean, look out - he'll make that run at the record. I have some hope that there's enough leftover dry air on the Yucatan peninsula to impact when it EWRCs, as the Yucatan has been having a historic drought which helped us out somewhat with Helene for a bit. Some dry air entrainment due to its close call would be lovely. But absent that, due north of the channel tonight or tomorrow is where to watch for records being broken, assuming they aren't broken before then.
 
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Blountwolf said:
I would not be surprised if HAFS-B nails the next 24 hours - it simply can not continue deepening at this rate without a EWRC, and ingestion of (comparatively) drier air off the Yucatan as it moves east might be possible then. However, when it passes the peninsula, the inflow is up the channel, and the water is part of the hot loop current that comes up out of the Caribbean, look out - he'll make that run at the record. I have some hope that there's enough leftover dry air on the peninsula to impact when it EWRCs, as the Yucatan has been having a historic drought which helped us out somewhat with Helene for a bit. Some dry air entrainment due to its close call would be lovely. But absent that, due north of the channel tonight or tomorrow is where to watch for records being broken, assuming they aren't broken before then.
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You think it will reintensify post-Yucatan? I thought it would be weakening and getting larger by then.
 
The only thing we can say is that it'll weaken and undergo EWRC at some point. When that happens we have no idea. Look at Irma and how long it maintained category 5 intensity without undergoing a EWRC. It would be astounding and strange if it didn't.
 
Atlantic said:
You think it will reintensify post-Yucatan? I thought it would be weakening and getting larger by then.
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Not by then (due north of the channel), no. That weakening isn't forecast until closer to landfall, after it turns more north and ingests some dry continental air it wraps around. HAFS-B is suggesting an EWRC as it passes north of the Yucatan, then the new eye tightening up allowing it further deepening down to that . HAFS-B is very bullish on the dry air intrusion soon after that though - and weakens it to 960s at landfall as the wind field expands. I hope it is really that dramatic of a weakening - I'd love to see it fall apart wind-wise before landfall. It'll still be awful, but not as awful. Surge wise - I fear the damage will already be baked in.
 
Storm surge watches are still only forecasting a max of 8-12ft in the worst areas.
Are they being conservative, or is a 12ft surge the realistic ceiling on this storm?
 
In the last few frames for Milton on Tropical Tidbits, it appears it has started to turn towards the NE from E earlier.
 
The eye seems to be maintaining for now, maybe it's getting stronger?
 
Been at work all day, but holy hell has Milton showed itself off today! And I think it's not done yet...

By the way, my partner and I have tentatively decided to STAY in St Petersburg to weather the storm. We just might be stupid honestly. But we aren't in a surge zone and are in a well-built new apartment complex, so we're hoping it withstands. I'll make sure to update everyone how it goes!
 
wx_guy said:
Been at work all day, but holy hell has Milton showed itself off today! And I think it's not done yet...

By the way, my partner and I have tentatively decided to STAY in St Petersburg to weather the storm. We just might be stupid honestly. But we aren't in a surge zone and are in a well-built new apartment complex, so we're hoping it withstands. I'll make sure to update everyone how it goes!
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I can't think of a worse idea. First of all, apartment buildings aren't intended to be strong and well made. They are intended to be large and cheap. Second, you will be without power for weeks. There may not be any stores to get supplies from for weeks. Your car will be washed away anyway.

IF you survive, you are asking for the most uncomfortable month of your life.
 
wx_guy said:
Been at work all day, but holy hell has Milton showed itself off today! And I think it's not done yet...

By the way, my partner and I have tentatively decided to STAY in St Petersburg to weather the storm. We just might be stupid honestly. But we aren't in a surge zone and are in a well-built new apartment complex, so we're hoping it withstands. I'll make sure to update everyone how it goes!
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Stay for a miserable existence for at least a couple weeks. Or leave, put your feet up and ensure yours and your partners safety in some comfort. Hard choice for me too.
 
wx_guy said:
Been at work all day, but holy hell has Milton showed itself off today! And I think it's not done yet...

By the way, my partner and I have tentatively decided to STAY in St Petersburg to weather the storm. We just might be stupid honestly. But we aren't in a surge zone and are in a well-built new apartment complex, so we're hoping it withstands. I'll make sure to update everyone how it goes!
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Seriously you need to leave. Don’t chance it, please.
 
Thanks everyone. I did say tentative lol We haven't decided for sure yet, but it's a complex decision for a lot of reasons. I'll keep y'all updated either way.
 
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