Houston Metro Severe Weather Threat May 6, 2025.

[UncleJuJu98]

New mesoscale discussion over east Texas and parts of Lousianna. This should be the area of the OWS stuff if it develops

 

[CheeselandSkies]

13 NEXRAD sites in the state of Texas and the tornado-warned storms have managed to find the biggest hole. Looks like one big QLCS though, not seeing any real sign of OWS activity.

 

[Kds86z]

First tor warning out of SE TX..

 

[OH-IOan]

…

It's good to see that there is a potential way for these to fail at materializing, but I still don't like the "higher-end" and "strong tornado" wording they've been using.

 

[DanLarsen34]

Where do you guys think the best chance for discrete activity is?

There's a subtle wind shift at the surface east of the San Antonio metro on the SPC mesoanalysis and in surface observations. This confluence band has popped a few small storms so far, but none of the updrafts have really established themselves yet.

I think I would keep an eye on this convergence zone as the primary area that could initiate discrete activity.

There's also some possibility further to the north closer to the ongoing convective complex near College Station, but the activity up there is in much closer proximity to the warm front where surface based instability is more marginal. The outflow from the ongoing complex, as well as storm motion, looks like it could undercut any updrafts before they really establish themselves up there as well.

 

[OH-IOan]

TORWs going off like bombs now. I'm glad we're finally getting some decent tornado activity (I think April 28 disappointed everyone, haha), although I don't like where the activity is happening.

 

[Atlantic]

How well-built are the structures in this area of Texas?

 

[OH-IOan]

How well-built are the structures in this area of Texas?

According to this real estate source, due to Texas' soil composition east of Interstate 35 basements aren't very common (I couldn't find anything on building standards).

 

[Ozonelayer]

Is this a confluence band W/NW of the Houston metro?

 

[Atlantic]

According to this real estate source, due to Texas' soil composition east of Interstate 35 basements aren't very common (I couldn't find anything on building standards).

Hmm. I just hope there aren't any intense tornadoes.

 

[AJS]

View attachment 41013

Is this a confluence band W/NW of the Houston metro?

Oh boy.

 

[Atlantic]

Oh boy.

Trouble beginning?

 

[Ozonelayer]

Oh boy.

I'll take that as a yes. Anyway, lets hope and pray that nothing becomes of it.

 

[Atlantic]

And so it possibly begins...

 

[AJS]

I'll take that as a yes. Anyway, lets hope and pray that nothing becomes of it.

Yep, that’s a pretty classic looking confluence band. It looks to be growing too.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Looks like something may be trying to get going near Nacogdoches.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

View attachment 41013

Is this a confluence band W/NW of the Houston metro?

I don't think so (idk doesn't seem super well defined to me lol. Maybe I'm off my rocker lol)

 

[AJS]

Trouble beginning?

I think we’re on the brink of something happening.

 

[Atlantic]

I think we’re on the brink of something happening.

Let's just get it over with and be done with it. This tornado season has been swinging around from big outbreaks to bu$ts and minor tornado ourbreaks.

 

[OH-IOan]

Let's just get it over with and be done with it. This tornado season has been swinging around from big outbreaks to bu$ts and minor tornado ourbreaks.

I still think March 14-15 was and will be the biggest event of the year in the long term, but that doesn't mean we could see a million tiny outbreaks, like today