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Flooding Flooding 2/17-21, 2019 (1 Viewer)


KoD

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What’s taking so long for a flash flood watch to be issued for north Alabama?
Doesn't seem to be warranted right now. Rivers are handling the runoff rather well for this round of rain. Example: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?gage=opdk1&wfo=eax

Guidance is showing less accumulation and intermittently westward trends so we'll see what happens when the time comes I guess.. It's a bit obnoxious to have model consistency and agreement for a week then things shift gears a couple days out.
 

rolltide_130

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Harvest, Alabama
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Doesn't seem to be warranted right now. Rivers are handling the runoff rather well for this round of rain. Example: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?gage=opdk1&wfo=eax

Guidance is showing less accumulation and intermittently westward trends so we'll see what happens when the time comes I guess.. It's a bit obnoxious to have model consistency and agreement for a week then things shift gears a couple days out.[/QUOTE]

This has been a MAJOR issue across all model guidance for years now, and its the same thing that causes them to change every time.. 500mb heights are higher than forecast, ridge is more stout, and it forces the system back to the NW and shears it out.

I'm beginning to think its an example of climate change at work.
 
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Canton, GA
What’s taking so long for a flash flood watch to be issued for north Alabama?
The heaviest rainfall wasn't expected until Tuesday and later. Therefore, its best to hold off on a watch for now. You'll see one issued this afternoon or tomorrow morning. Expect 3-6 more inches of rainfall through the weekend.
 

JayF

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NWS Huntsville has dropped the estimated totals a little bit.

Rain Totals.jpg
 

Mike S

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today's rain actually starting as sleet this morning with reports coming in from the Shoals area east through Huntsville
 

Kory

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Tuscaloosa, Alabama
I actually think the bigger threat for heavier rainfall will come tomorrow as the line of broken storms will come to a screeching halt as main dynamics pull north. Looks like Birmingham's all-time record high PWAT will be broken then, so heavy rain will be a problem.
 

WesL

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today's rain actually starting as sleet this morning with reports coming in from the Shoals area east through Huntsville
I so didn't expect to see that sleet this morning. Welcome to Alabama.
 

Kory

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BMX 12z sounding showed a pretty warm airmass riding over surface cold. MUCAPE of 400-500 J/KG shows we have some instability to work with...thus lightning and thunder.
 

patdawg1

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Flood Watch
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
331 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

...Multiple Rounds of Heavy Rainfall to Impact Central Alabama
This Week...

ALZ011>015-017-018-020-022>024-026-192215-
/O.CON.KBMX.FA.A.0001.190219T1800Z-190222T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Cherokee-
Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-St. Clair-
Including the cities of Hamilton, Sulligent, Vernon, Fayette,
Double Springs, Jasper, Oneonta, Gadsden, Centre, Carrollton,
Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Hoover, Pell City, and Moody
331 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central Alabama, northeast Alabama, northwest
Alabama, and west central Alabama, including the following
areas, in central Alabama, Blount, Jefferson, St. Clair, and
Walker. In northeast Alabama, Cherokee and Etowah. In
northwest Alabama, Marion and Winston. In west central
Alabama, Fayette, Lamar, Pickens, and Tuscaloosa.

* From this afternoon through late Thursday night

* Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are expected starting
Tuesday and continuing through the end of the week for
portions of north Central Alabama. Surface soil conditions are
already or will become saturated, and much of this rainfall
will runoff, filling low lying areas, ditches, and creeks.
Local rivers and streams are also expected to rise due to
excessive rainfall locally and across upstream river basins.

* Those with interests in flood prone or low lying areas, and
along local rivers in north and west Central Alabama, should
be ready to take action if water levels rise.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$


Flood Warning
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
738 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

...The National Weather Service in Birmingham AL has issued a Flood
Warning for the following rivers in Alabama...

Locust Fork At Sayre Affecting Jefferson...Tuscaloosa and Walker
Counties.

.Forecasted heavy rainfall over the Locust Fork basin during the
next 48 hours will produce rises along the Locust Fork at Sayre...
and a flood warning is now in effect there.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Turn Around...Don`t Drown.

Another statement will be issued by Wednesday morning...or sooner if
conditions warrant.

&&

ALC073-125-127-200138-
/O.NEW.KBMX.FL.W.0018.190222T0331Z-190223T0600Z/
/SAYA1.1.ER.190222T0331Z.190222T1200Z.190222T1800Z.NO/
738 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

The National Weather Service in Birmingham AL has issued a

* Flood Warning for
the Locust Fork At Sayre.
* from Thursday evening to late Friday night...or until the warning
is cancelled.
* At 7:00 AM Tuesday The stage Was 18.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 25 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Thursday night and continue to
rise to near 26 feet by Friday morning. The river will fall below
flood stage by early Friday afternoon.
* Impact...At 25 feet...Flooding of low lying wood lands and
agricultural lands along the Locust Fork occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3371 8694 3358 8705 3345 8733 3348 8737
3362 8714 3373 8698

$$



Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
454 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

ALZ011>015-017>050-201400-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
454 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Moderate rainfall will occur along and north of Interstate 20 today.
While the main threat of heavy rainfall and flooding will not be
until Wednesday, minor flooding of poor drainage areas and rises on
creeks and streams will be possible this afternoon and tonight due to
saturated soils.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Several days of rain are forecast Tuesday through Saturday. Locally
heavy rainfall will be possible, mainly Wednesday and Wednesday
night. This will result in the risk of flooding on rivers and
streams, with the potential for at least isolated flash flooding as
well. The greatest threat for flooding will be along and north of
the Interstate 20 corridor, potentially continuing into Thursday.

Minor flooding is forecast along the Tombigbee River and the lower
Black Warrior River Thursday through at least Saturday. Additional
river flood warnings could be issued in coming days.

There is a threat for severe storms, including isolated tornadoes,
Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Stay tuned to the latest
forecasts as it is possible that the threat level could increase in
later updates for portions of the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
Wednesday through Thursday, and again Saturday and Saturday night.

$$
(Moderators feel free to delete if this violates any sort of advertising rule)
 
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KoD

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It's wonderful to hear the thunder roaring again.
Looks like W/Central TN is the place to be if you are interested in getting too much rain.
 

akt1985

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Location
Madison, Alabama
Flash Flood Warning now in effect for Cullman and Morgan Counties in north Alabama. Brad Travis said the models did not pick up on the heavy thunderstorms over the Bankhead Forest.
 

patdawg1

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Messages
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Location
Gordo, Alabama
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1231 PM CST WED FEB 20 2019

ALC009-073-125-202130-
/O.NEW.KBMX.FA.Y.0013.190220T1831Z-190220T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Tuscaloosa AL-Blount AL-Jefferson AL-
1231 PM CST WED FEB 20 2019

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for Poor Drainage Areas
for...
Eastern Tuscaloosa County in west central Alabama...
Blount County in central Alabama...
Jefferson County in central Alabama...

* Until 330 PM CST.

* At 1227 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain was spreading
northeast across the area. One to two inches of rain is possible
during the next two hours. This rain will be falling on areas that
have received heavy rainfall during the past couple of days and
will runoff into local creeks and streams. This will produce
flooding of some streets and roadways across the area...especially
in low-lying flood prone areas with poor drainage or near small
creeks and streams.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Birmingham, eastern Tuscaloosa, Hoover, Vestavia Hills, Bessemer,
Homewood, Mountain Brook, Trussville, Hueytown, Gardendale,
Irondale, Leeds, Moody, Fairfield, Fultondale, Oneonta, Sumiton,
Blountsville, Cleveland and Holt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3410 8630 3394 8637 3389 8634 3382 8643
3380 8658 3353 8652 3325 8698 3323 8715
3313 8720 3311 8730 3301 8732 3301 8768
3353 8727 3366 8706 3377 8702 3380 8695
3387 8696 3397 8677 3425 8652 3426 8645

$$



Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1112 AM CST WED FEB 20 2019

ALC057-063-107-119-125-127-133-202015-
/O.NEW.KBMX.FA.Y.0012.190220T1712Z-190220T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Walker AL-Tuscaloosa AL-Pickens AL-Greene AL-Winston AL-Sumter AL-
Fayette AL-
1112 AM CST WED FEB 20 2019

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Walker County in central Alabama...
Tuscaloosa County in west central Alabama...
Central Pickens County in west central Alabama...
Greene County in west central Alabama...
Eastern Winston County in northwestern Alabama...
Sumter County in west central Alabama...
Eastern Fayette County in west central Alabama...

* Until 215 PM CST.

* At 1109 AM CST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain was spreading
northeast across the area. Rainfall of one to two inches with
localized higher amounts are possible during the next hour. This
rain will be falling in areas that have received heavy rain during
the past couple of days. This will result in the flooding of some
streets and roadways in the area...especially in low-lying flood
prone areas with poor drainage or near small creeks and streams.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Tuscaloosa, Northport, Jasper, Livingston, Eutaw, York, Aliceville,
Cordova, Carbon Hill, Gordo, Reform, Carrollton, Arley, Cuba, Holt,
Moundville, Berry, Parrish, Coker and Oakman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3301 8834 3430 8714 3399 8711 3399 8715
3390 8710 3389 8704 3300 8763 3298 8775
3295 8773 3286 8783 3280 8782 3231 8833
3231 8842

$$
 

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