If anything, I've always been very positive on Ethan Moriarty's stances and his calculations, and I know all of these as well. Do keep in mind I have legitimately never said I distrust him in the slightest. I don't agree with some of his takes, like his stance on Vilonia 2014, but he is a legitimate engineer. But also, the same math Texas Tech uses is
literally the same math Moriarty uses. They likely make different assumptions to perhaps simplify the calculation more, or they have different parameters for certain things, but ultimately it follows the exact same logic. In order:
1. Enderlin was rated EF5 because of this train car throw. This also was shown in the 2024 paper, so again, it's not conspiracy.
2. Rolling Fork's water tower had corrosion and was not built in one piece, which the 229 mph wind calc comes from assuming. If you omit these two major assumptions the resultant wind velocity would go down drastically.
3. Parkersburg was rated EF5, and this was at an EF5 rated home. Again, there's also some major assumptions made to simplify the calculation, although with this one a 279 mph calc is not going to go down far enough even with other factors taken into account to try to downgrade that. It's too overwhelming of a number.
4. Greenfield's parking stops are a valid thing to critique about that survey IMO, as I have parroted quite often on this very thread. Even if they are broken or weakened, the resultant wind calculation is still exceeding 200 mph.
5. Rochelle-Fairdale's sidewalk shifting was very unlikely to have been caused purely by wind. This was discussed a few pages ago.
6. Tri-State was rated F5. Also, again, this assumes the same thing as the Rolling Fork water tower calc. This also happened in 1925.
And not only that, all of these wind calculations come from a plethora of other assumptions that people and researchers can and will critique. If anything, this just points more to the fact that the issue is mostly not the scale itself; when the EF scale is correctly applied, it works very well, as we know from the majority of ratings given from 2007-2013. The issues arise from the inconsistency in its application across different parts of the country. Greenfield, IA had parking stops removed and thrown far enough distances to potentially justify EF5 intensity, but it was not taken into account - however, Joplin was allowed to have parking stops be a legitimate reason behind its EF5 intensity. Matador, TX was given an EF3 and we know that's a horrendous one, and would've likely been given a high end EF4 rating in any other more competent WFO, even based on home damage. Vilonia inflicted full-stop EF5 damage but was omitted the rating because of "trees standing a couple dozen yards away" or something, yet Rainsville had supposed EF5 damage within 80 feet of undisturbed trees. This is clearly the biggest issue with the scale without a doubt in my mind. The Vilonia rating also directly led to the overly conservative surveying we see today, and if you want to blame somebody for it, I think John Robinson is your guy.
Tim Marshall isn't some boogeyman. Sure, it's a conflict of interest for him to be with HAAG and also survey tornadoes. I don't even like the guy, the way he talked to his wife in his Bridge Creek storm chase was gross to me. These are by no means a smoking gun that he's
intentionally ruining the field and making insinuations that he is doing so is just a ridiculous accusation without verifiable evidence, in my opinion. He's a leading expert in this niche field, and that is a fact. And he is the guy who, after the ASCE report that tried to downgrade Joplin's intensity, went back and surveyed 22 homes and gave them EF5 intensity. He also very clearly disagreed with the rating for Matador in 2023 based on his demeanor on that tornado, and he literally is one of the main reasons why Enderlin is an EF5 right now. At the end of the day, he isn't the ultimate authority on every tornado getting their rating, but he is one of the most experienced surveyors out there and as such researchers and NWS offices look for his approval to give ratings: That's up to the individual WFOs whether or not they want to listen to him.
I'm not saying I agree with Texas Tech fully, they were responsible for Matador and they clearly have some outdated ideas with damage indicators. I'm not saying I agree with every WFOs decision to give some tornado this rating for this reason and blah blah blah, I'm saying that there is a scientific basis for their generation of the EF scale, and that is inarguable. The NWS decided to make it the standard, and that was their decision. People can assume all they want about what every single Texas Tech engineer says just based on Doswell's blog post alone, but that doesn't change the fact that people's opinions change over time and that includes scientific researchers.
A big part of the issue I have with your posts is that you're saying there isn't progress and it isn't science being done, and somehow Marshall / Texas Tech is responsible for that. That is objectively false. Doing science includes doing the wrong thing first sometimes, realizing your mistakes, and fixing them. That's literally what is happening with the new scale, especially if we take the post by
@joshoctober16 earlier in this thread (page 210) to be the truth. That's exactly what occurred with the original F-scale, which was also an inaccurate scale in the other direction. There is constant work being done, constant research being done, and attempts to mend this scale that can be peer-reviewed and fixed accordingly. In my eyes, trying to argue that the F-scale was better than the EF-scale in terms of how things were rated is blatantly wrong. You saw some of the most undeserving tornadoes get F5 and F4 ratings with the original F-scale. The winds for violent tornadoes may have been closer to what they really are in the original F-scale, but the issue was construction quality was not taken into account nearly as much as it is today, an issue Fujita himself acknowledged and encouraged to be taken into account when granting ratings in 1992 (Source:
The La Plata, MD Tornado: Issues involving the F-scale by Tim Marshall - I would directly link it, but I can't find a good pdf for it online that isn't directly downloadable).
I don't think I'm being naive by not immediately believing Marshall is a problem in this field of science because there's something you can point to that indicates a conflict of interest, especially considering his contributions to this field.