Enhanced Fujita Ratings Debate Thread

[Grand Poo Bah]

Yeah, I was one of the few people that dared to suggest that Tim Marshall doesn't deserve any more respect and I got attacked for it by quite a few posters here, accusing me of exaggerating Marshall as a "weather boogeyman" or that he's just following orders from above (the former CEO of NWS, etc.). While I don't doubt Marshall is solely to blame for the current state of the EF scale he is undoubtedly a major player in the debacle.

Also, welcome to the forum! This is probably the largest English-language tornado forum on the internet at this point, at least that I'm aware of.

Yeah this is the reason I made such a long point about him. Everyone seems to be defending him in here, but based on everything i've seen (here and elsewhere) his actions don't really seem excusable. Thanks for the warm welcome! Happy to be here. if you could recommend some other good threads and active discussion on this site that'd be awesome!

 

[slenker]

I respect your opinion and reservations. However, try to explain why he would create a presentation, specifically to train surveyors on the difference between EF4 and EF5 tornadoes, and choose to use Bridge Creek and Piedmont as the EF5 examples, and Goldsby as the EF4 example. There's absolutely no excuse for that. He's comparing 280 mph damage with 320 mph damage and painting it as the boundary line for 200 MPH.

His connections to Haag and consulting for insurance companies is a conflict of interest. Bar none. It's not up for debate. If you believe his character is strong enough it has no effect on him that's good, but it's a pretty good example of the naivety I'm talking about.

So is this:
"He likely makes just enough money without State Farm's help"

I don't think he's hurting for cash. This is a weird conclusion to draw with how much money there is in consulting and insurance. Haag has 100 employees and their yearly revenue is between $25-100 million.

I hope i'm not coming off too harsh. I just very strongly disagree. Thanks for the welcome! This whole thread was a fascinating read over the last week or so!

You're not coming off harsh at all. I enjoy civil debates like this.

I tend to play to a more conservative side here when it comes to accusations such as these, and it's because of my past with dealing with crackpot-ish people or ideas (Not saying that's what this is at all. But, when I hear accusations such as this, there's no denying that it comes off a little like that to someone who is unfamiliar with it). What specific connections to HAAG does he hold? Has it been explicitly proven that he is lining his pockets with their money/he's being paid to purposely mislead engineers? I can definitely see why it's a conflict of interest, but again, this feels like we're jumping to major conclusions based on only some evidence. That's the only issue I really have with the idea, not that I believe it isn't possible.

I don't know the guy. He could be a scumbag for all I know. But he is a very well-respected scientist within the damage surveying community for the most part, and I trust that quite heavily, despite my disagreements with how he rates tornadoes.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

I'd personally cap EF5 winds at 250+ and EF4 as being something like 180-249 or so. I think the most extreme tornadoes likely maintain winds in the 280-320 mph range but 250 is likely the low-end for F5 or EF5 winds.

I feel in some senses that tornadoes in extremely rare cases can exceed 320 mph and may possibly be as high as 350 or 360 mph. Jarrell, Smithville, and El Reno 2011 to name a few. One thing is that 180 to 249 mph seems like a big difference for EF4 winds. A 69 mph difference is a lot.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

I feel in some senses that tornadoes in extremely rare cases can exceed 320 mph and may possibly be as high as 350 or 360 mph. Jarrell, Smithville, and El Reno 2011 to name a few. One thing is that 180 to 249 mph seems like a big difference for EF4 winds. A 69 mph difference is a lot.

It's also worth noting Piedmont, Parkersburg, Smithville, and Moore were rated 210, 205, 205, and 210 respectively. They were all underrated so severely they'd be considered low end EF4s If the EF5 threshold was raised to where it should be. I believe Joplin has the highest rating on the EF scale of 220 MPH and that was before they tightened it up significantly.

 

[JPWX]

I feel in some senses that tornadoes in extremely rare cases can exceed 320 mph and may possibly be as high as 350 or 360 mph. Jarrell, Smithville, and El Reno 2011 to name a few. One thing is that 180 to 249 mph seems like a big difference for EF4 winds. A 69 mph difference is a lot.

I can personally attest to the Smithville one. It should have gotten a better in depth survey and a Tornado Emergency issuance as well. I was shocked that there wasn't even that. However, one of the greatest write ups that I've read about the Smithville tornado was from TornadoTalk by a young man named Nelson Tucker. It wasn't until his first appearance on Weatherbrains that I found out he has a form of Autism, which made it even more special. I had the pleasure of meeting him, Jen Narramore, and Zach Reichle a while back when they came down to visit the town. The worse damage I've ever witnessed personally to date. It changes your entire perspective on weather and storms. His write up is under their premium subscription page, but if any of you subscribe to TornadoTalk, I highly recommend given his write up a read. It's incredible. Also, I can't remember if I posted about this on here or not.

Smithville, MS Names Street After Johnny Parker: Community Remembers Devastating Tornado Thirteen Years Later – Tornado Talk

www.tornadotalk.com

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

I can personally attest to the Smithville one. It should have gotten a better in depth survey and a Tornado Emergency issuance as well. I was shocked that there wasn't even that. However, one of the greatest write ups that I've read about the Smithville tornado was from TornadoTalk by a young man named Nelson Tucker. It wasn't until his first appearance on Weatherbrains that I found out he has a form of Autism, which made it even more special. I had the pleasure of meeting him, Jen Narramore, and Zach Reichle a while back when they came down to visit the town. The worse damage I've ever witnessed personally to date. It changes your entire perspective on weather and storms. His write up is under their premium subscription page, but if any of you subscribe to TornadoTalk, I highly recommend given his write up a read. It's incredible. Also, I can't remember if I posted about this on here or not.

Smithville, MS Names Street After Johnny Parker: Community Remembers Devastating Tornado Thirteen Years Later – Tornado Talk

www.tornadotalk.com

I also have a form of autism. My speech can be kind of slow and it can be hard to get professional jobs. I am going back to school in the Spring to get a bachelor's degree in middle school mathematics and a minor in mathematics. I hope I can find work doing something like that but my main goal is to get a bachelor's degree.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

It's also worth noting Piedmont, Parkersburg, Smithville, and Moore were rated 210, 205, 205, and 210 respectively. They were all underrated so severely they'd be considered low end EF4s If the EF5 threshold was raised to where it should be. I believe Joplin has the highest rating on the EF scale of 220 MPH and that was before they tightened it up significantly.

Joplin was actually rated a >200 mph EF5.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

I can personally attest to the Smithville one. It should have gotten a better in depth survey and a Tornado Emergency issuance as well. I was shocked that there wasn't even that. However, one of the greatest write ups that I've read about the Smithville tornado was from TornadoTalk by a young man named Nelson Tucker. It wasn't until his first appearance on Weatherbrains that I found out he has a form of Autism, which made it even more special. I had the pleasure of meeting him, Jen Narramore, and Zach Reichle a while back when they came down to visit the town. The worse damage I've ever witnessed personally to date. It changes your entire perspective on weather and storms. His write up is under their premium subscription page, but if any of you subscribe to TornadoTalk, I highly recommend given his write up a read. It's incredible. Also, I can't remember if I posted about this on here or not.

Smithville, MS Names Street After Johnny Parker: Community Remembers Devastating Tornado Thirteen Years Later – Tornado Talk

www.tornadotalk.com

It was treated like it was just some kind of windstorm by MEG. What that tornado did is likely amongst or the most extreme damage I have ever seen from a tornado.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

In reference to my previous post. I think I found the house with 18 inch anchor bolts! Note the extreme ground scouring and entirely debarked shrub in the foreground. Looks like the anchor bolts might've been pulled out of the ground and are still attached to the board? This is some of the most impressive damage you'll ever see. Tim Marshall reviewed all this damage, and made a conscious choice to rate it EF4. then used the same tornado to train surveyors on EF4 damage. I believe this warrants a full scale investigation from NOAA, and potentially even a full scale audit of everything he's touched with the NWS.

 

[JPWX]

I also have a form of autism. My speech can be kind of slow and it can be hard to get professional jobs. I am going back to school in the Spring to get a bachelor's degree in middle school mathematics and a minor in mathematics. I hope I can find work doing something like that but my main goal is to get a bachelor's degree.

I say go for it! I know at least 4 people in meteorology with Autism and 3 are broadcast meteorologists.

 

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

In reference to my previous post. I think I found the house with 18 inch anchor bolts! Note the extreme ground scouring and entirely debarked shrub in the foreground. Looks like the anchor bolts might've been pulled out of the ground and are still attached to the board? This is some of the most impressive damage you'll ever see. Tim Marshall reviewed all this damage, and made a conscious choice to rate it EF4. then used the same tornado to train surveyors on EF4 damage. I believe this warrants a full scale investigation from NOAA, and potentially even a full scale audit of everything he's touched with the NWS.


View attachment 29921

Where are the 18 inch bolts?

 

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

Yeah this is the reason I made such a long point about him. Everyone seems to be defending him in here, but based on everything i've seen (here and elsewhere) his actions don't really seem excusable. Thanks for the warm welcome! Happy to be here. if you could recommend some other good threads and active discussion on this site that'd be awesome!

These are the other threads:


1.

Historic tornado videos missing from youtube/the internet?

Just want to know if anyone has copies of these tornado videos that I can no longer find? The first two were on youtube. -First one was a pretty high-quality video of the Phil Campbell, AL EF5. It was a backlit view of the huge wedge crossing a road and causing power flashes. It had sort of a...

talkweather.com

2.

Significant Tornado Events

(My apologies if there's already a thread in this vein; I checked but I didn't find one.) So, once upon a time, Talkweather was host to a pretty swell thread called "Significant Tornado Events." I'm sure some of y'all will remember. Full disclosure: I think I initially started the thread in a...

talkweather.com

This is the one that started it all.

 

[slenker]

I can personally attest to the Smithville one. It should have gotten a better in depth survey and a Tornado Emergency issuance as well. I was shocked that there wasn't even that. However, one of the greatest write ups that I've read about the Smithville tornado was from TornadoTalk by a young man named Nelson Tucker. It wasn't until his first appearance on Weatherbrains that I found out he has a form of Autism, which made it even more special. I had the pleasure of meeting him, Jen Narramore, and Zach Reichle a while back when they came down to visit the town. The worse damage I've ever witnessed personally to date. It changes your entire perspective on weather and storms. His write up is under their premium subscription page, but if any of you subscribe to TornadoTalk, I highly recommend given his write up a read. It's incredible. Also, I can't remember if I posted about this on here or not.

Smithville, MS Names Street After Johnny Parker: Community Remembers Devastating Tornado Thirteen Years Later – Tornado Talk

www.tornadotalk.com

A tornado emergency was certainly warranted for that storm, but one thing I can understand about it not getting an emergency tag is how quickly it went from tornado not OTG to EF5 finger of god (literally 2 minutes or less iirc). New Wren (which also deserved an EF5 rating that day but got “EF3”) degenerated, and the Smithville tornado went from new wall cloud to monster from 3:40 PM to 3:43 PM. That has to be a record.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Where are the 18 inch bolts?

 

[crosby]

well some more news for the ef scale


you know the EF scale is bad when the old F scale is more accurate then the new scale....

the F scale isn't more accurate overall, just in terms of windspeeds. the EF scale is better in every other way

 

[joshoctober16]

Yeah, I was one of the few people that dared to suggest that Tim Marshall doesn't deserve any more respect and I got attacked for it by quite a few posters here, accusing me of exaggerating Marshall as a "weather boogeyman" or that he's just following orders from above (the former CEO of NWS, etc.). While I don't doubt Marshall is solely to blame for the current state of the EF scale he is undoubtedly a major player in the debacle.

Also, welcome to the forum! This is probably the largest English-language tornado forum on the internet at this point, at least that I'm aware of.

im not sure if i should share this but ... one of the people who did drone shots of the bremen (lets just call him mr x) area apparently talk to tim and was asking why it isn't rated ef5 , tim stated its because the tornado did no ground scouring, then mr x told tim it did do scouring and he has it on the drone .... tim sighed or something like that and came up with a other excuse and then mr x said this was found in the damage again and tim seem frustrated , i forget if i was in a voice chat with mr x or it was a text chat but i herd this story from him on discord , i might look into this one day to see if i can find it , but the amount of excuses and moving the goal post just seems anoying ...

 

[joshoctober16]

While I'm at it, I really do think that Grazulis was pressured by Marshall and some of his associates to not say anything about Vilonia being an EF5. I was also accused of being a baseless conspiracy theorist for this too.

i do find it odd he had villonia as EF5 and then he suddenly had to change it .... it seem he wasnt able to re rate any tornado ...

 

[joshoctober16]

One thing that I don't believe to be true is that the Chickasha, Goldsby and Piedmont tornadoes all spawned from the same storm. I am pretty sure they did not (although I could be wrong). I am pretty sure Canton Lake and Piedmont were the same storm, and Chickasha/Goldsby were two separate storms to the south.

I believe that this is a dangerous mindset to have when it comes to this sort of thing. Tim Marshall is a veteran surveyor/scientist and I find it very unlikely that he is deliberately misleading engineers. He likely makes just enough money without State Farm's help. Surveyors and meteorologists are currently revising the EF scale right now. I truly believe that they are just overly afraid of giving tornadoes a higher rating all because of the La Plata fallout from twenty years ago.

I want to know, what more came out of that case? Is this just "the guy who started the case is making an accusation?" I don't think we should jump to conclusions based on that.

As far as your other points go, I mostly agree. Goldsby was absolutely an EF5, Chickasha was absolutely an EF5, among many others. But I still believe Marshall deserves some respect, and I stand by this.

Edit: Also, welcome to the forum. It's good to have different viewpoints here.

tim marshall wanted the hackleburg EF5 to be rated only EF4 i herd , also why would they be worried of over rating a tornado... when all they do is under rate so much to the point the data is soo skewd , having the same amount of under rating and over rating is more accurate then under rating every tornado...

 

[joshoctober16]

I agree for the most part. The only issue is that there have been DOW measurements exceeding 200 or even 250 mph in some cases on tornadoes that most definitely were not capable of producing EF5 damage (I.e. Andover 2022 and potentially Dodge City 2016). That just shows us that windspeed isn't everything in determining the power of a tornado, there's got to be something more to it.

I believe using the EF scale to estimate windspeeds is a complete failure. Windspeed obviously plays a role in the intensity of the damage but it's not the whole story.

Edit: Also, I think Andover 2022 was estimated with photogrammetry, not DOW, iirc. My bad.

its to note that DOW and photogrammetry measurement can be counted if its 0 to 60 meters , at least on the IF scale , but mesonets and probes would be 0 to 10 meters.

 

[joshoctober16]

I respect your opinion and reservations. However, try to explain why he would create a presentation, specifically to train surveyors on the difference between EF4 and EF5 tornadoes, and choose to use Bridge Creek and Piedmont as the EF5 examples, and Goldsby as the EF4 example. There's absolutely no excuse for that. He's comparing 280 mph damage with 320 mph damage and painting it as the boundary line for 200 MPH.

His connections to Haag and consulting for insurance companies is a conflict of interest. Bar none. It's not up for debate. If you believe his character is strong enough it has no effect on him that's good, but it's a pretty good example of the naivety I'm talking about.

So is this:
"He likely makes just enough money without State Farm's help"

I don't think he's hurting for cash. This is a weird conclusion to draw with how much money there is in consulting and insurance. Haag has 100 employees and their yearly revenue is between $25-100 million.

I hope i'm not coming off too harsh. I just very strongly disagree. Thanks for the welcome! This whole thread was a fascinating read over the last week or so!

its to note the bridge creek wind speed measurement of 302 mph was changed based on using a different method with the old data , now at 322-324 mph , the 295 mph wind measurement from el reno 2011 only had EF3 damage in that spot , when it went too far from radar is when the EF5 damage started , tornadotalk also talk about how a above ground tornado proof storm shelter that should be 300 mph proof was damaged and pushed , this would make it the highest unofficial tornado di damage in terms of mph , and the 3 most extreme damage in terms of pound per square inch (the cactus oil area and a smithville damage point had a stronger pound per square inch then that 300 mph winds needed spot from el reno 2011).

the ground scouring and corn damage from the 2011 el reno tornado was much more extreme and severe then the 2 F5 that almost got rated F6 in 1990 , the Goessel F5 and Plainfield F5, tornadotalk even shows the worst damage from both these 1990 F5 and compare it to el reno 2011 , its clear el reno was much stronger then both of them , specifically the corn damage was more severe then plainfeild, it was able to tare the roots even deeper and they were a stronger species.