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Enhanced Fujita Ratings Debate Thread

There is literally zero reason to try and get this lowered in any capacity. Especially when your evidence against it is dubious at best. Even if it wasn’t fully thrown it was still airborne for some time.
I'm really not sure he's attempting to discredit the rating. I was wondering that too, but the post can be interpreted in many ways so I'm not jumping to conclusions here. Roger is no stranger, he is a former SPC forecaster and he may be trying to correct information about the DI.
 
Those other three tanker cars were still dragged into the field and imo that's more impressive than rolling. But even then the tornado managed to completely roll over a box-shaped hopper car that was more than twice the weight of the tankers. Two of them even. And tipped over many more.

And It's like. Why are we doing this now? He’s not one of the one’s that spent months collaborating and figuring out this damage feat.
Correct info sure. but if this actually leads to the tornado being downgraded IN ANY capacity. It's just gonna be the same repeat of overly strict surveying that lead to the drought in the first place.
The “how low can we go” mentality.
 
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Those other three tanker cars were still dragged into the field and imo that's more impressive than rolling. But even then the tornado managed to completely roll over a box-shaped hopper car that was more than twice the weight of the tankers. Two of them even. And tipped over many more.

And It's like. Why are we doing this now? He’s not one of the one’s that spent months collaborating and figuring out this damage feat.
Correct info sure. but if this actually leads to the tornado being downgraded IN ANY capacity. It's just gonna be the same repeat of overly strict surveying that lead to the drought in the first place.
The tornado won't be downgraded, they spent 3 months of doing in depth calculations, analysing every contextual in and out, and just a week later, they'd change their mind because the car was actually lofted less yds then thought and it also rolled (Surprise! Objects have to land and will roll too)

NWS Grand Forks took their time very well and they understand what contextuals can provide as evidence when there's a lack of structures to hit, this is a very slight thing that only impacts the intensity of Enderlin by a little bit.
 

I can't see it but I'm assuming it's that one grain car rolling post:
  • If it was rolled those "lines" would be a lot deeper given how heavy that car is.
  • They look more like tilling lines than anything else that just-so-happen to align with the grain car, and even then they don't align perfectly.
  • It is physically impossible for that car to be where it is while being rolled (iirc at least), and there is a visible impact mark.
  • NWS Grand Forks spent months on the analysis, there's no way they wouldn't have seen those lines.
I'm more inclined to believe this is just ragebait to farm engagement.
 
The tornado won't be downgraded, they spent 3 months of doing in depth calculations, analysing every contextual in and out, and just a week later, they'd change their mind because the car was actually lofted less yds then thought and it also rolled (Surprise! Objects have to land and will roll too)

NWS Grand Forks took their time very well and they understand what contextuals can provide as evidence when there's a lack of structures to hit, this is a very slight thing that only impacts the intensity of Enderlin by a little bit.
I know it won't be. But I just woke up and past instances of these kind of surveying practices came back in memories. You know how that is.
 
I can't see it but I'm assuming it's that one grain car rolling post:
  • If it was rolled those "lines" would be a lot deeper given how heavy that car is.
  • They look more like tilling lines than anything else that just-so-happen to align with the grain car, and even then they don't align perfectly.
  • It is physically impossible for that car to be where it is while being rolled, and there is a visible impact mark.
  • NWS Grand Forks spent months on the analysis, there's no way they wouldn't have seen those lines.
I'm more inclined to believe this is just ragebait to farm engagement.
This is correct
 
I know it won't be. But I just woke up and past instances of these kind of surveying practices came back in memories. You know how that is.
Yeah, of course but we both know this is a very inconvenient thing, it's finally good to see a office take the step and if they took it back, I'd be severely disappointed but there's no way that's happening given the circumstances they've took with Enderlin. A office that actually CARES about accurate ratings, and guess what? The first time contextuals were really utilised in a while, it revealed true intensity. Isn't that surprising?
 
P.s if that car was just rolled, it wouldn’t have disconnected from the others in the way that it did. It had to be picked up and torn off the rest of the set and the cars still near the tracks on the opposite side of this image. Either way it was fully off the ground at least initially but still in multiple places along its journey. And the lifting of such an aerodynamic and insanely heavy object indicate wind speeds well into the EF5 category regardless of the specific mechanisms.
 
I can't see it but I'm assuming it's that one grain car rolling post:
  • If it was rolled those "lines" would be a lot deeper given how heavy that car is.
  • They look more like tilling lines than anything else that just-so-happen to align with the grain car, and even then they don't align perfectly.
  • It is physically impossible for that car to be where it is while being rolled (iirc at least), and there is a visible impact mark.
  • NWS Grand Forks spent months on the analysis, there's no way they wouldn't have seen those lines.
I'm more inclined to believe this is just ragebait to farm engagement.
A former SPC forecaster farming engagement is confusing if the case. I'm more inclined to believe he's just misinterpreting these subtle areas of damage, but I'm not sure if he's discrediting the rating entirely here or just giving it a bit less credit
 
A former SPC forecaster farming engagement is confusing if the case. I'm more inclined to believe he's just misinterpreting these subtle areas of damage, but I'm not sure if he's discrediting the rating entirely here or just giving it a bit less credit
He’s asserting that it was rolled instead of lofted based on dubious pretty much debunked evidence.
 
He’s asserting that it was rolled instead of lofted based on dubious pretty much debunked evidence.
Yeah, i get the post, really not concerned by what he's asserting. It's misinterpreting for sure, and not something i would do to a tornado that's been studied 3 months in advance for its rating. Grand Forks likely took MANY things into account.
 
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One home on Cherokee Valley was indeed well anchored and completely obliterated, and according to @TH2002 it then met EF5 structural and contextual criteria again in Tennessee.
Wow I had no idea! That’s what I get for dipping out of this site for months. Let me guess, it was that one slab foundation home closer to the road? Anyway thanks for letting me know. I’d still love further details if anyone has them.

I can’t believe how many tornadoes from the 2011 Super Outbreak could use an upgrade to EF5.
 
Wow I had no idea! That’s what I get for dipping out of this site for months. Let me guess, it was that one slab foundation home closer to the road? Anyway thanks for letting me know. I’d still love further details if anyone has them.

I can’t believe how many tornadoes from the 2011 Super Outbreak could use an upgrade to EF5.
Ringgold, Georgia EF4 - 04/27/2011
Path Length: 54.75 miles
Deaths: 20
Injuries: 335

The tornado became extremely violent near the intersection of Friendship and Cherokee Valley. 20 homes were destroyed in this neighborhood, with over half either mostly or entirely vanishing. It was absolute and complete devastation.
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One anchored home (surrounded by debarked hardwood trees and grass scouring) had the concrete slab picked clean of all debris, with only one large sill plate remaining. All fixtures and plumbing were shredded from the foundation, along with ceramic tiling, and the debris was windrowed away from the base of the slab. Unanchored homes were tossed whole well away from their foundations. 10 yards from the anchored home was the concrete slab of a shed, which rose several inches above the ground, and the southern and eastern sides were smashed, gouged, and flayed off.

(The home and shed slab are centered in this pictures)
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There was intense grass scouring, and hundreds of impact craters pockmarked the landscape from high velocity projectiles. Trees and low-lying shrubbery were also entirely stripped of their bark and branches. Despite the 60 mph forward motion a large pickup truck was thrown roughly 40 yards in the opposite direction towards the southwest. This indicates extreme winds, especially considering the the most powerful winds would only have lasted a few seconds.

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Cars were also tossed from every residence with some traveling at least 110 yards. And granulated debris was slammed into the ground with such force it was buried upright. A large section of wooden subflooring from one house was sliced vertically deep into the earth.

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New Rating: F5
Reasons: This is absolute textbook F5 and EF5 damage from any era. It requires no explanation, but regardless, strong framed houses tossed, automobile sized missiles, trees and shrubs entirely debarked, incredible phenomena.
Here’s a write up I did on it a while back. After Lyza's paper was published I was inspired to subscribe to Tornado Talk and start deep diving and re-rating tornadoes based on the old F scale criteria. I did quite a few write ups in the few pages around this post if you're interested!
 
Wow I had no idea! That’s what I get for dipping out of this site for months. Let me guess, it was that one slab foundation home closer to the road? Anyway thanks for letting me know. I’d still love further details if anyone has them.

I can’t believe how many tornadoes from the 2011 Super Outbreak could use an upgrade to EF5.
I believe so.

Another EF-5 Candidate in high confidence for me is Flat Rock, Alabama. Easily contextual EF-5 for me, with structural EF-5 damage being plausible.

Just for context for anyone that sees my list, the reason I have Greenfield and Diaz in "Honorable Mentions" is because it's either a coinflip for their rating (Diaz) or I think that they were rated pretty well (Greenfield).
 
I believe so.

Another EF-5 Candidate in high confidence for me is Flat Rock, Alabama. Easily contextual EF-5 for me, with structural EF-5 damage being plausible.

Just for context for anyone that sees my list, the reason I have Greenfield and Diaz in "Honorable Mentions" is because it's either a coinflip for their rating (Diaz) or I think that they were rated pretty well (Greenfield).

It's wild how many tornadoes from 2011 could be upgraded to EF5 with the new tree DIs. Flat Rock is a prime example of this.

Flat Rock, Alabama - Trenton, Georgia EF4 04/27/2011
Path length: 45 miles
Fatalities: 17 (3 were indirect)
Injuries: 125

The tornado began by rapidly intensifying in uninhabited forest and flattened wide swaths of trees. It drug one 30 foot chunk leaving an etch in the ground over 100 yards long. Less than five minutes after formation it was extremely formidable. It annihilated a small brick house leaving barely a trace. The remnants were accelerated to such high speeds that it broke and shattered asphalt on a road 60 yards away.

View attachment 45855

Across the street it hit Camp ToKnowHim and two very large RVs, leaving virtually no identifiable traces. It also tossed a shipping container full of equipment. Violent impact marks were left across the area, along with debarking of trees and severe low-lying shrub damage. Acres of forest were demolished and ground scoured.

Further along the path an F350 truck was rolled 20 yards, and RV was thrown 90 yards, and a single wide trailer was thrown 50 yards before touching the ground. A frame house was also swept clean and a 45 foot tall hardwood tree was ripped out of the ground and dragged 30 yards. Here's the before and after of the property.
View attachment 45856View attachment 45857

A mile later the tornado was even stronger and it bounced a pickup truck 300 yards, and lofted two cars through the air for 100 yards, transported substantial trees significant distances, and obliterated every structure it touched.

View attachment 45858

The tornado continued to strengthen in uninhabited land for 6 and a half miles, destroying a huge swath of forest and spraying dirt across rocky outcroppings and broken trunks. It hit a large downslope with an 800 foot elevation drop and became its most extreme. A vast chunk of old, thick forest was completely mulched. Despite having no structural debris loading there was extreme debarking, and all signs of greenery were almost entirely erased. Many felled trunks were split further into two or three chunks. Years later, aerial imagery revealed there wasn't a single tree that survived in the direct path.

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It finally hit a populated area again and two homes were smeared across the ground from their foundations. One of the NWS surveyors for this tornado, Chris Darden, said all day they had seen "nothing but carnage". He described the second home below as "pretty well built" that was swept away down to the flooring. nearby trees were denuded and debarked. Even most of the carpeting had been stripped. The washer, dryer, and fridge all had disappeared and still weren't located three days later when Chris revisited the site.

View attachment 45861View attachment 45862



With a forward speed of 50 mph, the .85 mile wide tornado crossed from this region into a field where it continued to flatten and debark large swaths of forest. Unfortunately, on the other side of that field were dozens of residences. Many were obliterated along with everything else in the tornado's path.

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Some seriously incredible contextual damage occurred here with exclusive pictures that Tornado Talk explicitly forbids from being shared. This includes a concrete porch slab of a double wide that was knocked 10 yards from its original location, A huge hardwood ripped out of the ground (leaving a deep crater) and carried 50 yards, the foundation of a double wide that was ripped out of the ground concrete and all.

I've summarized barely over half the article, and posted maybe 5% of the pictures. It goes seriously in depth showing the nonstop carnage this tornado caused. I now agree with other user's claims that this was close to Smithville in strength. Highly recommend subscribing and checking it out.


New rating: F5

Reasons: Dozens of instances of incredible phenomena, strong framed houses obliterated, unbelievable vegetation damage, and countless huge projectiles and vehicles carried over 100 yards.

 
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