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Severe WX December 31, 2021 - January 1, 2022 Severe Threat

Those tornadoes makes me nervous for what the mid south US will experience tomorrow!
The amount of wind shear must be insane for those “showers” in Georgia drop these tornadoes.
 
The tornadoes that were produced by these insignificant showers tells me that the atmosphere is more than primed for tomorrow. Still I'm seeing a lot trying to downplay tomorrow's threat.
 
MattW said:
Kudos to whoever was on the desk at FFC tonight. Those are some of the weakest storms I've seen produce a tornado, but I definitely see the TDS so good call!
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We had a rain shower down toward Demopolis that produced a weak tornado last summer. The cell never produced even 1 lightning strike.
 
From Madison Ga, a few hours ago.
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Most of the Atlanta storms looked pathetic in reflectivity....hardly any rain. Crazy....weird


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GA Stormchaser said:
Most of the Atlanta storms looked pathetic in reflectivity....hardly any rain. Crazy....weird


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FFC definitely noticed this (and its implications for those who were going to look at their radar apps after seeing they were under a warning) and tagged this little bit of text in their TORR for Cobb County.
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These are very abnormal storms for this area, but spotters have confirmed sighting the tornado near Powder Springs and tornadic damage has been reported.
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Small analysis of the weirdness from this part of the state, Georgia's much wilder afternoon notwithstanding

walkercountytornadoes.wordpress.com

December 31 2021 Mesocyclonic Shower: A Rather Unusual New Years Eve

December 2021 has been the most extraordinary December on record in regard to severe weather across the US, with record tornado totals, a derecho, dust storms, and wildfires. The month – and …
walkercountytornadoes.wordpress.com walkercountytornadoes.wordpress.com
 
Today's tornadoes were among some of the weirdest I have ever tracked. Here in Ohio we do sometimes get weak, surprise tornadoes that drop out of otherwise non-severe thundershowers or showers, especially during cool season events or during hurricane remnants. But the ones in GA today were on another level when it comes to "tornadoes out of nothing" type events though. I shudder to think what this would have looked like if there was a ton of CAPE to work with.
 
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued for parts of AR, OK and TX. The convection this watch concerns will be a part of the squall line that moves through with the front, per the CAMs.

 
Pretty sure an aspect of today that helped it not be quite as violent as it clearly wanted to be was rather weak ascent; the warm sector was huge and volatile but there just was not much lift across most of it. A bit of a warm nose aloft capped things off pretty decently since with no forcing to help it break through the updrafts couldn't take advantage of the instability in the midlevels; definitely a ton of spin in the 0-1km level so that the short topped stuff could get going though and the activity in GA was enhanced by a stationary front as per SPC's discussion so little surprise the tornadic activity was more out that way... but still very surprising just how vigorous those low topped shower-mesos were. Thesis paper anyone?

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Equus said:
Pretty sure an aspect of today that helped it not be quite as violent as it clearly wanted to be was rather weak ascent; the warm sector was huge and volatile but there just was not much lift across most of it. A bit of a warm nose aloft capped things off pretty decently since with no forcing to help it break through the updrafts couldn't take advantage of the instability in the midlevels; definitely a ton of spin in the 0-1km level so that the short topped stuff could get going though and the activity in GA was enhanced by a stationary front as per SPC's discussion so little surprise the tornadic activity was more out that way... but still very surprising just how vigorous those low topped shower-mesos were. Thesis paper anyone?

View attachment 11381
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I'm just glad the conditions weren't even more favorable...
 
A new tornado watch was just issued for parts of Tennessee and Kentucky. I know there is a New Year’s Eve celebration going on in downtown Nashville. I hope people are staying weather aware.
 
The SPC still seems quite uncertain about the extent of a discrete supercell threat ahead of the main line and appears to be one of the main reasons they didn't change the outlook much from the D2. Guessing they want to see more indicators in supercells' favor from modelling.
 
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