Severe WX December 31, 2021 - January 1, 2022 Severe Threat

[AL_ham_op]

After the strange weather pattern yesterday afternoon I have to say I'm kind of surprised that this has been so tame. I can definitely understand why the risk areas were trimmed back. Really surprised the cap seems to be holding too.

 

[akt1985]

Anyone seeing any rotation in northern Limestone County?

 

[Kolle]

Latest UAH sounding indicates cap has broken over Huntsville.

 

[Tennie]

After the strange weather pattern yesterday afternoon I have to say I'm kind of surprised that this has been so tame. I can definitely understand why the risk areas were trimmed back. Really surprised the cap seems to be holding too.

The latest UAH sounding reports that the cap may have finally been broken. Of course, it remains to be seen if there's still enough ingredients left in the area to at least get some overnight severe weather.

 

[TCLwx]

The latest UAH sounding reports that the cap may have finally been broken. Of course, it remains to be seen if there's still enough ingredients left in the area to at least get some overnight severe weather.

 

[Equus]

It's time for the evening soundings from BMX and JAN and that should give us a lot more info on warm sector potential in this area, updrafts still seem pretty fragile here

Currently going through a light shower that was a robust 40kft developing supercell a couple hours ago in Pickens county so definitely could be worse right now haha

 

[Evan]

The latest UAH sounding reports that the cap may have finally been broken. Of course, it remains to be seen if there's still enough ingredients left in the area to at least get some overnight severe weather.

HRRR seems to indicate supercells with some UH streaks for several more hours.

 

[Tennie]

Potential weak TDS

Which storm?

 

[Evan]

Which storm?

Somehow the forum saved that from a post I made several hours ago? Bizarre.

 

[Jetstream]

New meso...

 

[Richardjacks]

BMX doesn't plan to continue the warning into Alabama. I do think storms are about to get stronger as the low level jet increases and the cap erodes.

 

[Justin Hindman Hindy]

BMX doesn't plan to continue the warning into Alabama. I do think storms are about to get stronger as the low level jet increases and the cap erodes.

We shall see, that’s what I fully expect that this turns into a surprise night event since today underperformed

 

[Clancy]

SCP plans to issue a watch for N AL, TN and NW GA.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 12

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

SUMMARY...Risk for locally severe storms -- including potential for
a tornado or two -- continues. New WW will likely be issued within
the hour, given the scheduled 02/01Z expiration of WW 004.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a broken band comprised of
several strong/severe storms, extending from northwestern Alabama to
eastern portions of Middle Tennessee. While the persistently warm
mid-level temperatures/weak mid-level lapse rates remain a
hindrance, very strong shear -- 0-1km shear observed at 41 kt and
mid-level flow west-southwesterly at 90 kt per the latest KHTX
WSR-88D VWP -- will continue to support organized/rotating storms
despite the thermodynamic deficiencies.

As a result, expect severe potential to continue -- and gradually
expand eastward with time into areas east of WW 004. As the watch
nears its scheduled expiration, a new Tornado Watch will be issued
to extend from the ongoing severe convection over Middle Tennessee
eastward across Tennessee and northwestern Georgia.

 

[Tanner]

We shall see, that’s what I fully expect that this turns into a surprise night event since today underperformed

BMX doesn't plan to continue the warning into Alabama. I do think storms are about to get stronger as the low level jet increases and the cap erodes.

I was under the impression that the cap had already eroded. No?

 

[Justin Hindman Hindy]

I was under the impression that the cap had already eroded. No?

I believe it’s eroding as we speak. At least central and west Alabama. Huntsville said it’s already eroded but most everything has already blown past the city

 

[Richardjacks]

I was under the impression that the cap had already eroded. No?

it has partially, especially in northern sections of AL, what's left will erode quickly over next hour or so

 

[Kragg]

That storm in Lamar County is doing the tighten up.

 

[Evan]

Storm north of New Market really close to needing a TOR.

 

[Justin Hindman Hindy]

That storm in Lamar County is doing the tighten up.

View attachment 11424

Yup but only 45 mph gate to gate shear

 

[Clancy]

TOR NW of HSV.