December 10th 2021 Mid-South Outbreak- 1 year later

[JPWX]

I didn't see a thread already for this so I thought I would start one. Here's some radar images I got. Tomorrow marks a year since the deadly Mayfield tornado.

 

[JPWX]

Tornado Emergency bulletin and images from GRlevelx 2 Analyst

 

[warneagle]

The three-body scatter spike from the debris ball is still the craziest thing I've ever seen on radar.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

This tornado generated perhaps the most dramatic long-form local TV coverage since 4/27/11. Because it lasted so long and passed through so many media markets, there's a lot of it, but I think WPSD (NBC 6 Paducah)'s coverage is the best I've seen.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Also, Trey Greenwood did one of his first "post-mortem" video case studies on this event, the Mayfield etc. cell in particular.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

It's currently not too far down the list (still on the first page) because it's still being discussed on a somewhat regular basis, but eventually it will get pushed further down, so for future reference here's the link to our main discussion thread on this event:

Severe WX - December 10 & 11, 2021 Severe Threat

I guess I will be the one... Will be interesting to see what the 0z euro does tonight. Looks like there will be a large, established warm sector with some questions as to storm mode and timing.

talkweather.com

Also, in the spirit of this thread:

‘Heartbreaking’: Mayfield remembers tragedy of deadly tornado one year later

"It was simply heartbreaking."

www.wsmv.com

 

[Sawmaster]

Also, Trey Greenwood did one of his first "post-mortem" video case stories on this event, the Mayfield etc. cell in particular.

In the comments of that vid you'll find him saying this:
"I do think the EF scale may be broken…if the highest level (EF5) can’t be attained, then the scale is broken. Just because there weren’t properly built buildings in the path doesn’t mean that a tornado didn’t have EF5 winds."

A very unusual storm in every aspect from time, path length, location, strength, casualties, warnings, radar coverage, media coverage, quality of the survey, drone coverage, and social media coverage from real-time all the way to today.

 

[pohnpei]

Nice documentary of Mayfield tornado
The monument in Dawson Springs

 

[pohnpei]

Even to this today, I'm still in awe of the magnitude of this outbreak and the longevity nature of Quate state supercell and mayfield tornado. You can just tell that from the fact that an 122.8 miles incrediblely long track tornado largely got undiscussed on that day.

The discussion of whether Hayti and Mayfield was one continuous one tornado itself always makes me feel unreal. Not discussing those tornados before radar era, just many top-tier long tracker recently can see how unthinkable this event was. Hackleburg almost certainly being around 103miles rather than 132miles. cordova of 122miles likely a family. Yazoo City of 149 miles most likely being a family based on srr's research and Holly Springs with 75 miles track most likely a tornado family based on tornadotalk's research. The 165.7 miles track itself was undeniable either based on radar or satellite or ground survey, with it happening in December near midnight, was preposterous.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Even to this today, I'm still in awe of the magnitude of this outbreak and the longevity nature of Quate state supercell and mayfield tornado. You can just tell that from the fact that an 122.8 miles incrediblely long track tornado largely got undiscussed on that day.

The discussion of whether Hayti and Mayfield was one continuous one tornado itself always makes me feel unreal. Not discussing those tornados before radar era, just many top-tier long tracker recently can see how unthinkable this event was. Hackleburg almost certainly being around 103miles rather than 132miles. cordova of 122miles likely a family. Yazoo City of 149 miles most likely being a family based on srr's research and Holly Springs with 75 miles track most likely a tornado family based on tornadotalk's research. The 165.7 miles track itself was undeniable either based on radar or satellite or ground survey, with it happening in December near midnight, was preposterous.

Yeah, it's pretty clear by combining both radar and survey evidence that there was a quick occlusion/cycle over Obion County, TN but even during that there were brief spin-ups and vortices touching down at times...maybe not one continuous tornado in the technical sense, but very close to continuous tornadic activity.

 

[OHWX97]

St. Louis got extremely lucky that night, and I think that gets overlooked. The metro area is sandwiched between the paths of the Defiance, MO EF3 to the west and the Edwardsville, IL EF3 to the east. If a tornado had occurred between those two, it very likely would have impacted or come very close to impacting areas hit by the 2011 Good Friday EF4. The NWS Office and radar site in Weldon Springs came very close to a direct hit by the Defiance tornado, which passed just to the south.

​

Devastation produced by the Defiance EF3




Aftermath of the Amazon facility near Edwardsville, IL; the site of six fatalities.​

An addition five significant tornadoes would occur in Illinois that night, which makes the northern portion of the outbreak impressive in and of itself, but of course it wasn't comparable to the unbelievable violence that occurred further south.

Significant tree damage produced by a long-tracked EF2 near Ramsay, IL.​

 

[DetectiveWX]

I'm still in awe over the sheer violence it produced in the Mid-South during December. Almost seems comparable to Louisville 1890, Super Tuesday, Dec 1957 and Mid South 1952. Tri State 1925 is in a league of its own.

 

[UK_EF4]

To be honest if Tri-State occurred today then it would have probably been quite similar to the Quad State supercell’s tornadoes (mainly WKY EF4), at least in my opinion. The ‘town after town wiped out along its path’ reports were basically the same in both tornadoes. I’m sure if there were engineering surveys and Tim Marshall were sent out to the 1925 Tri-State there would have been a host of construction problems found. No doubt both were extremely violent tornadoes, and it’s very sad what both caused in terms of loss of life and property.

Edit: just for clarification I do think Tri-State had probably more widespread nature of damage and that unfortunately a very high death toll as well though I meant the comparison of the two isn’t too far off in my opinion.

 

[TH2002]

Even though it's been a year already, this event has remained fresh in my mind like it happened yesterday. I've been interested in meteorology and tornadoes for over 10 years, but like many others I'm still in awe that this actually happened - and I watched it unfold with my own eyes while it occurred. As far as being a perfect example of a truly nightmarish, worst case scenario, my mind has put this outbreak in a very special club with the Super Outbreaks, Joplin, Tri-State, Tupelo 1936 and a few others. God Bless the victims of this disaster and may those who were lost R.I.P.

 

[UK_EF4]

Even though it's been a year already, this event has remained fresh in my mind like it happened yesterday. I've been interested in meteorology and tornadoes for over 10 years, but like many others I'm still in awe that this actually happened - and I watched it unfold with my own eyes while it occurred. As far as being a perfect example of a truly nightmarish, worst case scenario, my mind has put this outbreak in a very special club with the Super Outbreaks, Joplin, Tri-State, Tupelo 1936 and a few others. God Bless the victims of this disaster and may those who were lost R.I.P.

Yes, I completely agree with your message. I genuinely can't believe it was a year ago as like you say, it honestly feels like it was last week. Everything about this event still absolutely mind-boggles me when I think about it, the extent and degree of damage, the number of long tracked tornadoes, the time of year. Every time I look at that SPC storm report map, I can't believe the event happened in the first place. As far as tornado outbreaks go, this one was probably an anomaly in all aspects. I do genuinely think that this in hindsight, this event was one of *the* Outbreaks, remembered for decades, studied for decades and joins the top tier club as you say of awful and destructive tornado events. Hopefully people affected by the tornadoes that day will be able to have a somewhat peaceful and enjoyable Christmas, after 12/10 took that chance, and much more, away from them last year.

 

[Tennie]

I shared this in the original thread, but the following documentary on this outbreak is one of (if not the) best that I've seen so far about this outbreak, and an absolute must-watch (runtime 1:40:03):



I'll quote myself from the post that I originally made on the original thread:

It contains interviews from some of the meteorologists who forecast this storm{1.}, as well as some thoughts regarding the debate over the EF Scale (personally, I found the narrator to have some very good points regarding the debate itself). I cannot recommend this video highly enough to those interested in this outbreak, and I also recommend checking out the channel that produced this documentary, as there's more documentaries covering other severe weather events on there!

{1.} Interestingly enough, one of the meteorologists, who works for the SPC, noted that had the outbreak day been in a more climatologically favorable time period (i.e. April-June), it's highly likely that it would've been given a High Risk; however, the rather odd time of year added in an extra uncertainty factor since the conditions seen that night had rarely, if ever, been recorded before in that region and time of year, and the forecasters weren't even sure how such a scenario could actually play out given these uncertainties.

 

[pohnpei]

Aerial shot of the entire track of Mayfield tornado.

https://www.tornadotalk.com/the-immeasurable-cost-of-the-december-10-11-2021-tornado-outbreak/

Tornadotalk's article of the outbreak.

 

[TornadoFan]

The radar imagery of the Mayfield tornado still gives me the absolute creeps.

 

[akt1985]

Overshadowed by the Mayfield tornado was the Edwardsville tornado that killed several people at an Amazon Warehouse. That would have been newsworthy by itself if Mayfield didn’t get hit.

 

[JPWX]

On this day in 2021, a major tornado outbreak occurred across the Mid-South region particularly from Northeast Arkansas into Kentucky. There were 71 confirmed tornadoes including 6 EF3s and 2 EF4s. A total of 89 fatalities and $3.9 billion in damages were caused by this outbreak. This outbreak is considered the deadliest December outbreak on record. A total of 8 tornado emergency type warnings were issued which is the most issued in day in the month of December. The 8 tornado emergencies that were issued are the most in a single day only 2nd to April 27th, 2011.

A supercell storm that formed back over Arkadelphia, Arkansas was a long-lived supercell that continued for over 550 miles from eastern Arkansas into northeastern Kentucky producing 11 tornadoes including 2 intense tornadoes.

The first EF4 tornado with estimated winds of 170mph that affected Bowman, Arkansas and making it's way through Leachville, Arkansas then hitting Tiptonville, Tennessee. This tornado stayed on the ground for 89 minutes (1 hour, 29 minutes) and causing a damage path up to 81.17 miles. This EF4 caused 8 fatalities and $13.5 million in damages.

An EF3 tornado with estimated winds of 150mph hit Edwardsville, Illinois causing 6 fatalities and $5million in damages.

The 2nd EF4 tornado with estimated winds of 190mph hit Mayfield, KY. Lasting for 2 hours and 54 minutes, this tornado caused 57 fatalities and traveled up to 165.6miles. Also, 3 out of the 8 tornado emergencies issued were from the Mayfield tornado. This tornado is the deadliest single day tornado since Joplin Missouri in May 2011.

Another EF3 tornado hit Kenton-Dresden, Tennessee then Pembroke, Kentucky. Estimated winds of 160mph, this tornado caused no fatalities and $11.026 million in damages. This tornado was the 2nd longest tracked during the outbreak going a total of 122.91 miles.

Two tornadoes hit Bowling Green, Kentucky. One was rated EF3 with estimated winds of 165mph and causing up to 16 fatalities. The 2nd tornado was rated EF2 with estimated winds of 125mph and no fatalities. In Tremont, Illinois, straight line wind damage from thunderstorms caused winds of 85mph.

Posted this today on my Patreon.