Severe WX December 10 & 11, 2021 Severe Threat

[pohnpei]

In this area what likely happened to the vehicles was they collided with houses & that likely damaged them much more and is likely one reason they didn't travel as far as in other EF5-type tornadoes.

This is true but we still got Moore/Joplin that went through more highly densed area yet vehicles tossed everywhere. Actually we don't need tornados that strong. Jonesboro also had quite a few impressive vehicle damage in urban area. In EF5 tornados, even for these vehicles that not moved, they are bombarded by debrises with large dents everywhere in its body, which I didn't see much in Cambridge. Besides, Mayfield didn't toss vehicle long distance in more open field with less building collision.

 

[pohnpei]

Speaking of vehicle damage feature of Mayfield, a tornado come to my mind is Tuscaloosa. Very few vehicle tossed over 200 yards in Tuscaloosa/Brimingham as well. Residences leveled by Tuscaloosa were also mostly not well built, CMU foundation. Large buildings damage of Tuscaloosa were also impressive just like Mayfield: apartment/shopping mall/factory/commercial building leveled in Tuscaloosa. Debarking of Tuscaloosa tornado was more impressive but different tree species may need to be considered.

 

[pohnpei]

Violent damage of Mayfield tornado near Crutchfield.

Aerial of this place

 

[MNTornadoGuy]

In terms of vehicle damage, I can’t not be impressed by what it did to that tanker truck in Mayfield though. I’m not sure how far it was thrown, but it was left almost unrecognizable.

I think it was crushed when the factory collapsed on top of it. I couldn't find the truck on satellite imagery anywhere outside the factory.

 

[buckeye05]

The issue with Mayfield is that the area where the best house construction was (Cambridge Shores), the tornado was not at peak strength, and the in the area where the contextual damage was most violent (Bremen), the houses just weren't as well built. After a few months of reviewing the damage and making some comparisons, I do understand why they went with EF4, but it clearly illustrates the biggest weakness of the EF scale as is.

Do I think this tornado reached EF5 intensity? I think it probably did, based on the contextual damage in Bremen. I've said it before, but this is why I wish there was a detailed portion of the EF scale that provided a list of contextual damage indicators (debris pattern, scouring, vehicle movement, ect) with severity levels for each indicator, and footnotes for each one explaining to what degree the contextual damage would increase or decrease the rating. This would solve:

1.) The issue of subjectivity and inconsistency among surveyors regarding how to factor in contextual damage by providing rigid, but detailed guidelines. The guesswork would be eliminated, and hopefully as a result, each WFO would be more on the same page.

2.) Reduction of under-rated events where the structures in question clearly failed well below the actual wind speed of the tornado.

 

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

Speaking of vehicle damage feature of Mayfield, a tornado come to my mind is Tuscaloosa. Very few vehicle tossed over 200 yards in Tuscaloosa/Brimingham as well. Residences leveled by Tuscaloosa were also mostly not well built, CMU foundation. Large buildings damage of Tuscaloosa were also impressive just like Mayfield: apartment/shopping mall/factory/commercial building leveled in Tuscaloosa. Debarking of Tuscaloosa tornado was more impressive but different tree species may need to be considered.

Yeah I haven't found much impressive vehicle damage pics from Tuscaloosa until it exited the city and went into the forested areas between it and Birmingham.
Also, with Joplin were vehicles tossed hundreds of yards? I figured most were just smashed or flattened into scrap with all the buildings around.

 

[pohnpei]

Yeah I haven't found much impressive vehicle damage pics from Tuscaloosa until it exited the city and went into the forested areas between it and Birmingham.
Also, with Joplin were vehicles tossed hundreds of yards? I figured most were just smashed or flattened into scrap with all the buildings around.

The difference here was many vehicles became airborne in Joplin, wrapping around trees, poles or hitting ground with its body crushed. That didn't happen in Cambridge Shore.

 

[TH2002]

No doubt of violent intensity here. Just said not EF5 level. Most trees here were softwoods with piles of debris hitting but little debarking. The red vehicle in second pic was the only mangled vehicle I can found in Cambridge Shore. EF5 tornado tends to do more than that imho.

I wonder if it's not just as simple as tree debarking and vehicle movement. Based on the structural damage, movement of heavy objects and impressive scouring I have no doubt EF5 level winds occurred in Cambridge Shores but maybe the rugged hilly terrain had something to do with the lack of impressive debarking and vehicle damage there? By comparison, Bremen was a pretty flat area more akin to the type of terrain a tornado would encounter on the Plains and the vehicle and tree damage was MUCH more impressive, but as buckeye05 pointed out the homes weren't as well constructed.

Part of me thinks this is something beyond our understanding of tornadoes.

 

[pohnpei]

I wonder if it's not just as simple as tree debarking and vehicle movement. Based on the structural damage, movement of heavy objects and impressive scouring I have no doubt EF5 level winds occurred in Cambridge Shores but maybe the rugged hilly terrain had something to do with the lack of impressive debarking and vehicle damage there? By comparison, Bremen was a pretty flat area more akin to the type of terrain a tornado would encounter on the Plains and the vehicle and tree damage was MUCH more impressive, but as buckeye05 pointed out the homes weren't as well constructed.

Part of me thinks this is something beyond our understanding of tornadoes.

I don't really notice grass scouring or movement of heavy object in Cambridge shore. Could you point out If I missed some?

The chance of EF5 level winds can't be ruled out certainly. But It can't be ruled out for most violent tornados. (I remember extremeplanet said similar things before)

"If" is hard ward to say in the context of tornados. . Like it's hard to make speculation that It can do major debarking If tree species were different or It can toss cars like Smithville If the terrain was flat. Although it's hard, speculation and imagination is of vital importance for tornado intensity estimation as DIs almost always not enough. Tim Marshall once said Chickasha was EF5 tornado without one house meet with criteria. El Reno 11 was given EF5 rating without one single house meet criteria. Survey of Topeka once said Chapman would be rated EF5 If It went through the town. These judgement involves speculation and It was a reasonable one because evidence of EF5 level winds was abundant.People may get impressed by view of rows of houses swept away but It was really not too different with one or two houses swept away. It's just a matter of number of DIs this tornado encountered.

Back to Mayfield, actually, I also didn't see major debarking in Bremen. The vehicle damage was worth mentioned but not top-tier level obviously. Ground scouring was Incredible but most of them were chaff field scouring which was much easier than lawn. There's definitely a possiblity that Bremen was one of the strongest of all time and I also have an inclination to this. But at the very least, the evidence present was not as much as Hackleburg/Smithville or even Bassfield that only encountered few DI at its peak intensity. For Cambridge Shore part, the evidence was even less abundant though there's always a chance theoretically.

 

[TH2002]

I don't really notice grass scouring or movement of heavy object in Cambridge shore. Could you point out If I missed some?

The chance of EF5 level winds can't be ruled out certainly. But It can't be ruled out for most violent tornados. (I remember extremeplanet said similar things before)

"If" is hard ward to say in the context of tornados. . Like it's hard to make speculation that It can do major debarking If tree species were different or It can toss cars like Smithville If the terrain was flat. Although it's hard, speculation and imagination is of vital importance for tornado intensity estimation as DIs almost always not enough. Tim Marshall once said Chickasha was EF5 tornado without one house meet with criteria. El Reno 11 was given EF5 rating without one single house meet criteria. Survey of Topeka once said Chapman would be rated EF5 If It went through the town. These judgement involves speculation and It was a reasonable one because evidence of EF5 level winds was abundant.People may get impressed by view of rows of houses swept away but It was really not too different with one or two houses swept away. It's just a matter of number of DIs this tornado encountered.

Back to Mayfield, actually, I also didn't see major debarking in Bremen. The vehicle damage was worth mentioned but not top-tier level obviously. Ground scouring was Incredible but most of them were chaff field scouring which was much easier than lawn. There's definitely a possiblity that Bremen was one of the strongest of all time and I also have an inclination to this. But at the very least, the evidence present was not as much as Hackleburg/Smithville or even Bassfield that only encountered few DI at its peak intensity. For Cambridge Shore part, the evidence was even less abundant though there's always a chance theoretically.

It is clear some scouring did occur in Cambridge Shores, although I will admit it's no Bridge Creek level scouring.
First photo, where some of the larger homes were swept away. The wind damaged grass is mostly on the right side


Some scouring also occurred on this side, though some of it is hard to distinguish from vehicle marks


As for movement of heavy objects, there are the aforementioned concrete porch slabs that got dislodged/broken, and the shipping container that got tossed. Although it is interesting that the 2021 Sterling City, TX tornado tossed a shipping container 50 yards and only got rated EF2

I will also never not be impressed by this photo where literally everything in sight is shredded

 

[MNTornadoGuy]

It is clear some scouring did occur in Cambridge Shores, although I will admit it's no Bridge Creek level scouring.
First photo, where some of the larger homes were swept away. The wind damaged grass is mostly on the right side
View attachment 12612

Some scouring also occurred on this side, though some of it is hard to distinguish from vehicle marks
View attachment 12613

As for movement of heavy objects, there are the aforementioned concrete porch slabs that got dislodged/broken, and the shipping container that got tossed. Although it is interesting that the 2021 Sterling City, TX tornado tossed a shipping container 50 yards and only got rated EF2

I will also never not be impressed by this photo where literally everything in sight is shredded

I don't really believe that is true grass-scouring. The patterns look very inconsistent for grass scouring and a large majority of the "scouring" looks to be from bulldozer tracks. Also, keep in mind that this event occurred in winter so the ground was likely already somewhat muddy/bare in places.

 

[buckeye05]

It is clear some scouring did occur in Cambridge Shores, although I will admit it's no Bridge Creek level scouring.
First photo, where some of the larger homes were swept away. The wind damaged grass is mostly on the right side
View attachment 12612

Some scouring also occurred on this side, though some of it is hard to distinguish from vehicle marks
View attachment 12613

As for movement of heavy objects, there are the aforementioned concrete porch slabs that got dislodged/broken, and the shipping container that got tossed. Although it is interesting that the 2021 Sterling City, TX tornado tossed a shipping container 50 yards and only got rated EF2

I will also never not be impressed by this photo where literally everything in sight is shredded

That isn't scouring, it's lawn damage from debris cleanup/bulldozers. Notice how it's inconsistent and encircles some of the houses, and if you look closely, you can see tread marks. True ground scouring manifests itself as a linear, consistent path of discoloration when viewed from the air.

 

[tornado examiner]

lets not forget this tornado near bremen had the second or third strongest radar velocity couplet ever recorded on dopplar radar. and it was definitely not a glitch nor contamination. it was clear, well defined, and extremely tight. with the max inbound being confined to one single pixel. likely a drill bit core surrounded by a wedge funnel like smithville.

 

[pohnpei]

lets not forget this tornado near bremen had the second or third strongest radar velocity couplet ever recorded on dopplar radar. and it was definitely not a glitch nor contamination. it was clear, well defined, and extremely tight. with the max inbound being confined to one single pixel. likely a drill bit core surrounded by a wedge funnel like smithville.

The couplet was folded and there was controversay here. Sam got 115.9kt vrot using pyart which can be better than GR2. NEXRAD 2DVD got a 75kt vrot and another radar ranking website owner got 104kt. Some still argued that 133kt was legitimate but There were many obscure things here, which is one of the reason why these kinds of reading cannot be used in terms of intensity estimation directly. Readings from mobile radar are much more valuable than 88D radar's reading.

 

[tornado examiner]

didn't...look folded...it was extreme inbounds next to extreme outbounds wasn't it?

 

[tornado examiner]

 

[tornado examiner]

if this thing had happened with an april or may type environment....mayfield would have definitely been wiped off the map. cayce would have been deleted. and dawson springs would have been mostly leveled to the ground.

 

[TH2002]

I don't really believe that is true grass-scouring. The patterns look very inconsistent for grass scouring and a large majority of the "scouring" looks to be from bulldozer tracks. Also, keep in mind that this event occurred in winter so the ground was likely already somewhat muddy/bare in places.

That isn't scouring, it's lawn damage from debris cleanup/bulldozers. Notice how it's inconsistent and encircles some of the houses, and if you look closely, you can see tread marks. True ground scouring manifests itself as a linear, consistent path of discoloration when viewed from the air.

The second photo, you can definitely see bulldozer/vehicle tracks in places, so probably.
The first photo still confuses me. Even if it isn't scouring, it's odd how the lawns on the right side of the photo are noticeably not as green as the ones on the left side, and there are few if any vehicle tracks to be seen.
I thought maybe there were some visual tricks going on (like the camera angle/time of day causing the discoloration) but the same thing is clearly noticeable in this photo as well.

 

[pohnpei]

The second photo, you can definitely see bulldozer/vehicle tracks in places, so probably.
The first photo still confuses me. Even if it isn't scouring, it's odd how the lawns on the right side of the photo are noticeably not as green as the ones on the left side, and there are few if any vehicle tracks to be seen.
I thought maybe there were some visual tricks going on (like the camera angle/time of day causing the discoloration) but the same thing is clearly noticeable in this photo as well.

There were many ground view or upclose aerial view footages of this place which would be better to identify whether there was grass scouring here



I didn't notice too many scouring in these videos.

 

[MNTornadoGuy]

The second photo, you can definitely see bulldozer/vehicle tracks in places, so probably.
The first photo still confuses me. Even if it isn't scouring, it's odd how the lawns on the right side of the photo are noticeably not as green as the ones on the left side, and there are few if any vehicle tracks to be seen.
I thought maybe there were some visual tricks going on (like the camera angle/time of day causing the discoloration) but the same thing is clearly noticeable in this photo as well.

That still does not look like grass scouring to me. Google imagery also does appear to show that the slight ground discoloration on the western edge was there before.