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COVID-19 detected in United States

One thing to keep in mind when talking about the vaccine and the 70%, 95% efficacy numbers is the standard for a "case" in the vaccine trials was completely different than what we've been calling a case for the rest of the pandemic. For somebody in the trial to be considered a COVID case, they had to display multiple symptoms and test positive. Basically they didn't even look for nor count "asymptomatic" COVID infections, so we have no idea what the efficacy number is as it relates to much milder/asymptomatic cases. In the Yankees article above, 7 of the 8 would not have counted as COVID cases in the trials.
 
The goalposts sure have shifted quickly. Quite a bit different standard than what has been applied to regular COVID for the last 14 months.

 
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gangstonc said:
How is that changing the goalposts? Did they used to say that if you died of a stroke, but had mild covid, that you died of Covid?
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Yes, there is no distinction in the total COVID death numbers you see between “with COVID” and “of COVID”.

What the CDC is wanting to count as vaccinated cases and vaccinated deaths is perfectly logical, it’s just a major change to how we’ve been doing that.

Note: I don’t think it reduces the number of deaths by some crazy 75% type amount. It’s probably in the 15-25% range if I had to give a best guess
 
The guy that's running the Bama Tracker site is shutting it down at the end of May saying he thinks it's run its course. Where will be a good site to go to to get similar Covid data for Alabama?
 
Just an Oregon perspective for anyone interested, after reading this:

apnews.com

Oregon among blue states slow at lifting COVID restrictions

Even as the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention moved earlier this month to ease indoor mask-wearing guidance for fully vaccinated people, some blue states like Oregon and Washington are still holding on to certain longtime coronavirus restrictions.
apnews.com apnews.com

<rant>To correct this outsider's misperception, Portland metro is the largest urban area, but Eugene, south of me, is large (U of O) as well as a Portland wannabe; there are lots of other more traditionally oriented cities, from Bend to Medford, Klamath Falls, Roseburg, etc. I'm in Corvallis (Oregon State), a small city or large town, depending on your POV, which is quite "blue" but more countrified than Eugene.

There's lots of country, too, even here in the Willamette Valley where most Oregonians live.

That's what I like about Oregon: it's an old-fashioned mix of US life (Boomer-style analogy: radio stations before they all got into formatting). I get the rural "feel" AND urban culture I like (and stuff that I don't like, too -- can't have everything). Others "bluer" and "redder" than me seem to feel the same way; it's only in dislikes that we differ, basically. There is a common love of this state that never comes across in the news written by those who don't know the place.</rant>

Well, ruffled feathers aside , here in Corvallis, I'm seeing more and more masked people since the COVID vaccine (Moderna) became available. That's crazy because everybody here followed restrictions through November last year, carrying it to ghost-town levels until Thanksgiving, and then suddenly outdoor traffic was back to normal and the number of people in grocery stores was, too, after a short time lag, and has been up there ever since.

I figured everybody back then was rebelling against restrictions. Can't explain the rise in masks now. But there's definitely a psychological component to masking, at least in this state.

So, count yer blessings, all!
 
Got my second shot this morning. It hasn't rained in like three weeks and my allergies are so bad I probably won't even notice if I have side effects tomorrow.
 
Even though in Alabama we've made great improvement... it's disappointing to me that we are still averaging 250-300 new cases per day... have nearly 300 people hospitalized, and have 100 people die from Covid in the last 10 days. Especially since the pool of people who are still susceptible has been diminished by approximately 40% from vaccinations and/or recovered from infection within the last 6 months. I'm wondering if this is due to the new strains taking over and they are more virulent? Looking forward to the day that the number of new cases and hospitalizations are both under 100.
 
This made me wonder what sort of a typical low we should expect for this new disease and I decided to look up the US daily average for measles (much more contagious) and the flu (a little less contagious). That project is ongoing (here's a CDC graphic of influenza data in the US, 2010-2020), and may or may not be completed (time is limited right now), but I was gobsmacked by this CDC fact about measles:

  • 1,282 cases in 2019 -- highest since 1992
  • 13 in 2020
  • 2 thus far in one jurisdiction.
 
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ghost said:
Even though in Alabama we've made great improvement... it's disappointing to me that we are still averaging 250-300 new cases per day... have nearly 300 people hospitalized, and have 100 people die from Covid in the last 10 days. Especially since the pool of people who are still susceptible has been diminished by approximately 40% from vaccinations and/or recovered from infection within the last 6 months. I'm wondering if this is due to the new strains taking over and they are more virulent? Looking forward to the day that the number of new cases and hospitalizations are both under 100.
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Just an FYI, 100 people haven't died in the last 10 days, the 7 day average deaths (by date of death) have been under 5 for a while now. The last time the 7 day average was at or above 10 (to get 100 deaths in a 10 day period) was over 2 months ago. A bunch of older deaths were reported a couple days last week.
 
Jacob said:
Just an FYI, 100 people haven't died in the last 10 days, the 7 day average deaths (by date of death) have been under 5 for a while now. The last time the 7 day average was at or above 10 (to get 100 deaths in a 10 day period) was over 2 months ago. A bunch of older deaths were reported a couple days last week.
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ok thanks.... on 5/17 Bamatracker had total deaths at 11038 and yesterday at 11138. I saw the notice on 5/20 about a data backlog for infections but didn't see anything on added deaths on the backlog
 
ghost said:
ok thanks.... on 5/17 Bamatracker had total deaths at 11038 and yesterday at 11138. I saw the notice on 5/20 about a data backlog for infections but didn't see anything on added deaths on the backlog
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There have been 100 new deaths added during that time, but many of those are deaths from months ago. They have a “Deaths by Date” option that is a much better picture of what actually happened than reported deaths by day of report.
 
Jacob said:
There have been 100 new deaths added during that time, but many of those are deaths from months ago. They have a “Deaths by Date” option that is a much better picture of what actually happened than reported deaths by day of report.
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Thanks! I’ll look for that but it looks like BamaTracker will be pulling the plug next week
 
Next 3-4 weeks will be particularly interesting to watch across a handful of places. I'm most interested to see what happens in Israel, Florida, and Arizona. All three places had significant summer waves last year, and all three places now have in place significant levels of population immunity. So far so good, no signs of any increases in any of those areas.
 
Jacob said:
Next 3-4 weeks will be particularly interesting to watch across a handful of places. I'm most interested to see what happens in Israel, Florida, and Arizona. All three places had significant summer waves last year, and all three places now have in place significant levels of population immunity. So far so good, no signs of any increases in any of those areas.
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We were at Universal Orlando over the weekend and on Saturday they lifted the mask restrictions on wearing a mask inside and on the rides if fully vaccinated. If everyone was following the rules there must be 95% of the population fully vaccinated now. Met some friends down there who had also been to Disney and said they are much stricter there
 
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