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COVID-19 detected in United States (2 Viewers)

gangstonc

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Many European countries are returning to some form of "lockdown" as cases there are increasing quickly. I figure some of the blue states in the US will do the same soon when things really heat up over the next few weeks.
I wonder if they will only require lockdown for the unvaccinated. Either option has some thorny issues to deal with.
 

gangstonc

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Does Europe not have a vast majority of its population vaccinated? Why the surge in COVID?
Yes, but it is still a pandemic of the unvaccinated. I saw an article saying the entirety of ICU patients in Germany are unvaccinated.

Even if a relatively small percentage of the population is able to get the virus, it doesn’t take much to overwhelm an ICU.
 

Jacob

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Yes, but it is still a pandemic of the unvaccinated. I saw an article saying the entirety of ICU patients in Germany are unvaccinated.

Even if a relatively small percentage of the population is able to get the virus, it doesn’t take much to overwhelm an ICU.

It is true that the vaccines do a good job against hospitalizations and death, but after a few months they aren't very effective at slowing the spread. The most recent paper I saw had the J&J vaccine at near 0% efficacy against infection in the 6+ month range, and Pfizer was down to 40% by 6 months and dropping fast. This is one of the reasons boosters have been pushed hard recently.
 
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ghost

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Just when I thought it was safe to go back in the water, the Muscle Shoals school system has put 6th graders on a week of virtual learning because of a recent surge of Covid-19 cases in their school system
 

Jacob

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Yes, but it is still a pandemic of the unvaccinated. I saw an article saying the entirety of ICU patients in Germany are unvaccinated.

Even if a relatively small percentage of the population is able to get the virus, it doesn’t take much to overwhelm an ICU.

I had to do some digging but I found the German hospitalization numbers this morning. Just over 28% of ICU patients are vaccinated, and just under 36% of overall hospitalizations are vaccinated patients.

Here's the latest report from the german RKI institute. The hospitalization data is on page 22. I had to use a translate on it since I cannot read German

 

Jacob

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Just when I thought it was safe to go back in the water, the Muscle Shoals school system has put 6th graders on a week of virtual learning because of a recent surge of Covid-19 cases in their school system

I think Alabama as a whole has bottomed out and is about to start increasing again. Cases are starting to rise again in Kentucky and Tennessee, so it makes sense that they would be turning around in the Shoals/Huntsville area as well.
 

ghost

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With so many having antibodies from vaccines and previous infections… where is the virus finding the fertile ground to again spread?
 

Jacob

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With so many having antibodies from vaccines and previous infections… where is the virus finding the fertile ground to again spread?

The answer to that question is really quite complicated. There's still a significant amount of people that have never been infected with it, and vaccinated people are still catching and spreading it. The majority of spread in the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations are in the virus-naive, so in theory each successive wave should have less fertile ground, but given how much easier delta has spread, it doesn't need as large of a fertile population.

I think we have a couple intriguing test cases that we will have to see how they play out over the next 6 months. Those two tests cases are India and the gulf coast/Florida. The Delta variant burned through both of those places largely unimpeded, and both have dropped to their lowest levels of infection since the start of this whole ordeal. India is 5 full months out from the peak of their massive wave, and there's no signs of even a bump so far in India. Are they done with it? Or is it a lull before another wave? Florida currently has the lowest case rate in the US and it is still dropping, are they basically over it after this last wave? Or will they still see a significant winter bump?

As time goes on, cases become less relevant and hospitalizations/deaths should be how future waves are measured, unfortunately those haven't decoupled as much as we would all like yet.
 

gangstonc

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The answer to that question is really quite complicated. There's still a significant amount of people that have never been infected with it, and vaccinated people are still catching and spreading it. The majority of spread in the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations are in the virus-naive, so in theory each successive wave should have less fertile ground, but given how much easier delta has spread, it doesn't need as large of a fertile population.

I think we have a couple intriguing test cases that we will have to see how they play out over the next 6 months. Those two tests cases are India and the gulf coast/Florida. The Delta variant burned through both of those places largely unimpeded, and both have dropped to their lowest levels of infection since the start of this whole ordeal. India is 5 full months out from the peak of their massive wave, and there's no signs of even a bump so far in India. Are they done with it? Or is it a lull before another wave? Florida currently has the lowest case rate in the US and it is still dropping, are they basically over it after this last wave? Or will they still see a significant winter bump?

As time goes on, cases become less relevant and hospitalizations/deaths should be how future waves are measured, unfortunately those haven't decoupled as much as we would all like yet.
I also wonder what effect the waning immunity offered by the vaccines will have. I’m sure some of those who got the vaccine fairly early are no longer immune.
 

Jacob

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I also wonder what effect the waning immunity offered by the vaccines will have. I’m sure some of those who got the vaccine fairly early are no longer immune.

The biggest problem with vaccine wane is that those that got the vaccine the earliest were the elderly and most vulnerable...the ones that need it the most. Obviously the hope is that the boosters will help this demographic a lot for this winter, but the percentage of people that have had a booster isn't that terribly high yet. There's also the 1-2 week period where you are more vulnerable after getting a booster (similar to getting the 1st shot), so if people rush out to get boostered as a surge is ongoing, it could actually be counter-productive.
 

thundersnow

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The biggest problem with vaccine wane is that those that got the vaccine the earliest were the elderly and most vulnerable...the ones that need it the most. Obviously the hope is that the boosters will help this demographic a lot for this winter, but the percentage of people that have had a booster isn't that terribly high yet. There's also the 1-2 week period where you are more vulnerable after getting a booster (similar to getting the 1st shot), so if people rush out to get boostered as a surge is ongoing, it could actually be counter-productive.
More vulnerable/counter-productive? As in, people are more susceptible to the virus for 1-2 weeks after the shot? Or, are you just referring to the time it takes for immunity to build? I assume, if that’s the case, the counter-productive part is their risk of exposure by going out to get the shot, not that the shot makes them less immune for a window of time.

At least, that’s what I’m guessing you meant, unless there’s something I didn’t know about the immune system after the shot is received.
 

Jacob

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More vulnerable/counter-productive? As in, people are more susceptible to the virus for 1-2 weeks after the shot? Or, are you just referring to the time it takes for immunity to build? I assume, if that’s the case, the counter-productive part is their risk of exposure by going out to get the shot, not that the shot makes them less immune for a window of time.

At least, that’s what I’m guessing you meant, unless there’s something I didn’t know about the immune system after the shot is received.

Well my response won't clear it up much, but from what I've read about it, there's disagreement among the medical community on the subject. I'll have to look for the paper I read on it a while back, which suggested people were more susceptible immediately after the 1st shot for that 1-2 week window. Others have suggested it just correlates with people getting the shot and changing their behavior, and/or being exposed during the process. It's been a pretty common phenomenon all over the globe, so whichever reason it is, people should at the least act as if nothing has changed until 2 weeks post-shot.

This isn't meant to discourage people getting a booster that need it. It was more of a, be careful if you do decide to get the booster, and that you should assume you are no more protected (or even slightly less protected) for the 2 weeks following the shot and behave accordingly. Also a big push to get people boosters during a surge might be counter-productive, if more are exposed and/or people are slightly more susceptible following the shot when there is significant community spread ongoing. Such as in Michigan right now, where things are on fire at the moment and they are probably under a month from their peak in infections.
 

thundersnow

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In response to the CMS ruling, my company (hospital/healthcare) was implementing a vaccine mandate for all employees, whether patient facing or not. I’m vaccinated, but I suspect some who aren’t were going to quit. In response to the OSHA decision and state suits this week, they walked it back to only implement the requirement for people who work in hospitals and facilities. I work in a corporate office, so it no longer applies to my office. It’s all created a stir.
 

StormStalker

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Has anyone taken the booster yet? I plan to get mine within the next couple weeks and just looking for feedback on your experience with it.
 

ghost

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Has anyone taken the booster yet? I plan to get mine within the next couple weeks and just looking for feedback on your experience with it.
I got the Pfizer booster over a month ago. My arm was sore for a day or 2 and I felt tired the day after I got it... but no fever or chills or severe fatigue
 

Jacob

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Maine/Vermont/New Hampshire are all at their highest level of COVID cases/hospitalizations to date and still rising. Michigan is about to hit its highest level of COVID hospitalizations as well. Seeing steady increases across the rest of the NE and Upper MW as well, though nobody has surged as quickly as Michigan has.
 

ghost

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It's early on to know for sure but this could make Delta seem like a walk in the park... sure hope not
 

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