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COVID-19 detected in United States (3 Viewers)

Jacob

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So will there be another surge after Thanksgiving through the winter? If so... Will it be a new variant?

It's extremely likely that much of the US will see a winter wave, but unless some super variant comes along in a hurry, it'll still be Delta. It took months for Delta to take over, and Delta currently accounts for somewhere between 99 and 99.9% of cases in the US.
 

Jacob

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Watching cases and Rt estimates across the country and not any obvious signs of a northern wave forming yet. A handful of northern states like Minnesota and Michigan are "simmering" per say, but Rt estimates across much of those areas are below 1.

There's only one area I see currently in the country that seems to be moving up and out of phase with its neighbors, and it's a a small cluster in southern New Hampshire and parts of Massachusetts. Rt estimates there are moving upwards at the moment and there's been a pop in hospitalizations in the past week or two. Hopefully it's just a local increase that just happens to be out of phase and not the beginnings of a fall/winter wave.
 

ghost

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Yeah for whatever reason... northern New England is not fairing well right now
 

ghost

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The drive thru Covid testing location I go past 3 or 4 times a week had several more cars in line today than they have had during the last month. It's usually only been about 1-3 cars since the first of the month... this morning there were about 10 cars in line. Hope this isn't a bad omen and was just an anomaly.
 

Jacob

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The drive thru Covid testing location I go past 3 or 4 times a week had several more cars in line today than they have had during the last month. It's usually only been about 1-3 cars since the first of the month... this morning there were about 10 cars in line. Hope this isn't a bad omen and was just an anomaly.

Given the regional trends it is likely just an anomaly, but worth keeping an eye on.

Little concerned about the Mountain West region/Southwest region. CO/NM/AZ/CA have all seen patient inflows start to increase the last few weeks.

image.png
 

Jacob

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If seasonality plays even a remotely significant role then help me understand why cases per 100k in Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, North Carolina, and South Carolina are 4-5x LESS than the rate in Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Florida? While Nevada, Utah, Arizona and Wyoming are virtually identical to Alabama and Mississippi?

In fact, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina and North Carolina, are more similar to Delaware, New York, New Jersey, Iowa, Montana, Nebraska, and Oregon than they are to Alabama/Mississippi. Vaccination rates are clearly not the only factor that plays a role, travel/tourism patterns and outbreak clusters in states are also major factors, but if seasonality is a major factor then why are so many states with different climate, temps, and humidity levels so similar while states that have a similar climate, temp, and humidity level are so very different?

I know we've gone round and round about "seasonality" for more than a year now, but I wanted to revisit this post. This post was early in the summer wave, on July 16th. Some southern states moved a couple weeks later than other states, which made some comparisons at the time not as clear cut as they are now that we are post-wave. I'm curious if you still feel that "seasonality" or something similar isn't a major driver in COVID waves.

FDHpnnq-UUAc-PVI6.jpg


I hope this was the last major wave across the region and discussion on "seasonality" in the future becomes moot, but I'm not confident in that being the case.
 
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Jacob

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It is unfortunate that Twitter hasn't taken this down as blatant misinformation, but it is these type things from the CDC that only makes people trust them less. If they would lie so easily and openly about masks, what else would they lie about?

 

gangstonc

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It is unfortunate that Twitter hasn't taken this down as blatant misinformation, but it is these type things from the CDC that only makes people trust them less. If they would lie so easily and openly about masks, what else would they lie about?

There are several studies that back this up. I don’t think calling it a lie or misinformation is valid.
 

Jacob

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There are several studies that back this up. I don’t think calling it a lie or misinformation is valid.

There isn’t a single study in the world that backs up that it reduces your risk by 80%.

It is a blatant lie and intentional misinformation.
 

gangstonc

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There isn’t a single study in the world that backs up that it reduces your risk by 80%.

It is a blatant lie and intentional misinformation.

This one says 79%



Here is a news article about a Texas Tech study that claims 80%.

And another: https://www.forbes.com/sites/chrisw...t-decrease-in-covid-19-cases/?sh=289b9a34f59f

This is the citation the CDC uses for their 80% figure:
  1. Fischer EP, Fischer MC, Grass D, Henrion I, Warren WS, Westman E. Low-cost measurement of face mask efficacy for filtering expelled droplets during speech. Sci Adv. Sep 2020;6(36)doi:10.1126/sciadv.abd3083
It looks like several scientists and universities would back up the 80% number. I don’t understand you calling it a blatant lie and intentional misinformation when it is so easy to find studies that back up their statement.
 

Jacob

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This one says 79%



Here is a news article about a Texas Tech study that claims 80%.

And another: https://www.forbes.com/sites/chrisw...t-decrease-in-covid-19-cases/?sh=289b9a34f59f

This is the citation the CDC uses for their 80% figure:
  1. Fischer EP, Fischer MC, Grass D, Henrion I, Warren WS, Westman E. Low-cost measurement of face mask efficacy for filtering expelled droplets during speech. Sci Adv. Sep 2020;6(36)doi:10.1126/sciadv.abd3083
It looks like several scientists and universities would back up the 80% number. I don’t understand you calling it a blatant lie and intentional misinformation when it is so easy to find studies that back up their statement.

I didn't realize the CDC citation was to a 2020 DROPLET study, not even the primary way COVID is transmitted. That makes it even more sad. Of course the CDC was almost a year behind in admitting what everybody knew, that the primary transmission vector was aerosols.

The second study was a computer model from early 2020, which no real world data has since backed up.

I'll have to find the Texas Tech study and see what it was, though like most of the rest, it was done in a lab under a very specific set of variables.

I'm calling it a blatant lie because it is. Slapping a mask on your face doesn't reduce your risk of contracting COVID by 80+%. If it did, there would be measurable differences in areas that mask vs. areas that don't. That signal in the data data doesn't exist, and we have almost 2 years worth of real world data now. The only somewhat reliable RCTs that have been done over the past 2 years with masks showed at most a 20% (and that's being generous) reduction in cases by wearing surgical masks. All the trials on masks and influenza that occurred pre-2020 showed a minimal efficacy at best, and COVID is more contagious than the flu.
 

bjdeming

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True, it doesn't exist. I couldn't get a screencap on this mobile device, but just Google "Florida, COVID" and "Oregon, COVID" and check out the New York Times daily graph that comes up each time. Florida is in deep decline right now, while we -- despite our mask mandates, etc. -- are in the midst of a high point.

Masks are kind of a social ritual now in many places, like Oregon, but whatever is controlling the rate is running on something much more complex.
 

Jacob

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Sounds like the flu has come back pretty rapidly in the last couple weeks in Florida. Florida, Florida State, and Florida A&M are all seeing large numbers of students sick and positive for flu. Florida's football team apparently had 20-30 players sick going into yesterday's game. Florida's flu surveillance reports apparently run a couple weeks behind, but it'll be interesting to see what they show in a few weeks.

True, it doesn't exist. I couldn't get a screencap on this mobile device, but just Google "Florida, COVID" and "Oregon, COVID" and check out the New York Times daily graph that comes up each time. Florida is in deep decline right now, while we -- despite our mask mandates, etc. -- are in the midst of a high point.

Masks are kind of a social ritual now in many places, like Oregon, but whatever is controlling the rate is running on something much more complex.

I'm not a big fan of picking two areas that aren't geographically close and trying to compare them at a snapshot in time. Backup a couple months when Florida was on fire and Oregon was significantly lower, and you could make the same argument in reverse. But I agree with your overall point. Parts of Europe right now that have much stricter masking than here are seeing rapid surges at the moment. You'd think if they reduced transmission by 80%, their surges wouldn't be as steep and fast as they are.
 

ghost

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Is there a link where you can keep up with the hospitalizations around the state (Alabama). How many are in hospitals... how many in ICU? % hospitalized fully vaccinated? % ICU fully vaccinated? etc?
 

Jacob

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Is there a link where you can keep up with the hospitalizations around the state (Alabama). How many are in hospitals... how many in ICU? % hospitalized fully vaccinated? % ICU fully vaccinated? etc?

I don't have a link to that data, but I do know that the Alabama Hospital Association tweets out most of those stats on Mondays and Fridays.

 
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Jacob

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I believe we are starting to see the start of a northern wave forming across parts of the upper MW. In the last 10-14 days, Michigan/Minnesota/Wisconsin are all seeing increasing cases and hospitalizations, especially Michigan.

image.png
 

Jacob

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Another note on the northern wave forming, all of the following states are now rising in cases since the end of October. Many of these had a mini-peak around the end of September/early October, but now the recent declines from that peak that they were seeing looks to have been overtaken by the fall stimulus.

Minnesota
Wisconsin
Iowa
Illinois
Indiana
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
New York
Vermont
New Hampshire
Nebraska
Kansas
Missouri
South Dakota
Colorado
New Mexico
Arizona
Utah

A handful more have stopped falling and are running roughly even with where they were at the end of October.
 

Jacob

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Many European countries are returning to some form of "lockdown" as cases there are increasing quickly. I figure some of the blue states in the US will do the same soon when things really heat up over the next few weeks.
 

ghost

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Many European countries are returning to some form of "lockdown" as cases there are increasing quickly. I figure some of the blue states in the US will do the same soon when things really heat up over the next few weeks.
Well crap... here we go again :-(
 

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