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COVID-19 detected in United States (5 Viewers)

Evan

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Would never know it’s bad here. News hardly mentions it and everything is pretty much open full capacity. Masks are probably worn by 30% if that. Older people definitely are not wearing. It’s mainly younger people. Governor did away with mask mandate. I don’t see TN reaching even 50% vaccinated. I had a customer today he and his wife took the vaccine. He had no issue but his wife was down 3 days. He said he would take it again. His wife said absolutely no way. She’s done with even a booster. Same with my mom who is a cancer survivor and 72. She said no more vaccine for her. Strange how it affects some and not others.

The dead can't speak, shop, or dine out.
 

gangstonc

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Ok. Living comes with risks. We all are going to die one day.
Right, but why take a decently large risk for basically no gain?

Madison county Alabama is still doing quite well. Most days are in the teens and twenties. I hope it stays that way. I’m sick and tired of wearing a mask.
 

Jacob

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Well, I think we've discussed this some in the past, and I don't remember exactly where we left it, but my take is that although seasonality plays a role, some of the data correlation you see is really more about how people cycle their behavior in response to weather, rising cases, media attention, lockdown fatigue, etc.

Sure, UV exposure, RH, and temperature impact the survivability and spread of COVID. And I know you would absolutely agree that weather conditions definitely influence people's behavior in a given area as it pertains to activies that are more/less likely to transmit/spread COVID. For example, after a period of several weeks with cold temps and heavy snow, if there's a few days or a week with a nice thaw and sunshine, people's behaviors are going to change massively as far as what they do, where they do it, and how they do it.

Similarly, I think that event calendars throughout the year vary substantially on what activities are performed and where (inside vs outside and activities conducive the warmer or colder weather). Clearly COVID disrupted this, but most states kept fairly similar profiles in what they allowed and when/how with a few outliers here and there.

My point is that the climate variable, IMO, is more about how different climates and different periods of weather drive changes in human behavior and activities versus any impact on the virus itself and the virus' own behavior. The latter still is influenced by climate and weather but we shouldn't see such large variations between states who've had extremely similar weather for the past several months and share as very similar geography and climate.

As an example, why in the world has Ohio and Indiana not looked anything like Michigan for the period of March - yesterday? Looking at its surrounding states, there's not really a state anywhere around Michigan that has had similar case increases/decreases over the same time period. You could say Minnesota and Pennsylvania line as far as the shape of your case count changes on a graph but the slope and trajectory of cases in those states are a fraction of what happened in Michigan. A little odd, no?

To expound a bit further, we can also look at states that border Canada. I'm sure you're very familiar with how the population is distributed in Canada. Border crossings and population movement between Canada and the United States (excluding Vancouver) are going to be 95%+ Ontario/Quebec into Michigan/New York.

I found a COVID graph for the 5 counties of Western NY surrounding the Buffalo area (2nd busy USA/Canada crossing site after Michigan).

5 Western NY counties: https://buffalonews.com/news/local/...cle_261f0820-dcb5-11ea-9ade-d3e35b30860b.html

Michigan: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/michigan/

Canada: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/

It is stunning how similar Canada and Michigan have been this year until vaccine rollout increased in the USA. The western NY map is not quite as heavily correlated but still looks more similar to Michigan and Canada than all the states in Michigan's region. No state in the Midwest has that kind of aggressive slope that Michigan has. But the western NY counties get close and Canada is just dead-on similar. Thus, my point is that the reason Michigan and the Western NY counties are seeing such a quick and sharp drop is because of better vaccination rates. Canada's numbers are slowly decreasing at a much lower rate of change.

It's just a theory. I would expect Michigan and the 5 western NY counties to be somewhat similar due to climate/weather and Canada border crossings. I think the border crossings and Canada's lower vaccination rates is a plausible explanation for why Michigan and the 5 western NY counties looked more like Canada than any place in the United States until recently. Just a hypothesis. I may be totally wrong.

Response to Paragraphs 1-4: I consider your theory just as potentially valid as mine, and there's certainly room where we could both be partially correct and see the real world results that we have. I think there's a lot we don't understand about this virus and how it spreads, such as what you point out in your next couple paragraphs about Michigan/Canada/Indiana/Ohio (i'll respond to that next). I think one major wrench to your theory is what happened in Los Angeles during the winter wave. Things really started to take off in November, when the average high was 74 and average low 47, and there was no recorded precipitation. It continued to sky rocket there through December, with an average high of 70 and average low of 44, with 2 days of rain. Now, I don't pretend that I understand Southern California culture in the least, but I can't see that weather being the catalyst to substantially change people's behavior enough to seed such a drastic rise in cases vs. what they had seen the previous few months. The other side to Los Angeles is that it rose and fell very similarly to other sunbelt regions like Arizona and much of the south. This is worth pointing out because Los Angeles did the same thing as other Sunbelt states, during the same time frame, back in the summer of 2020. While I disagree that human behavior changes is the reason for the drastic fall we've seen in regions, I'm at least willing to say it could potentially be one of the reasons. To the contrary, I don't see any way that one can argue that human behavior just happens to change to allow increased spread in different locations (LA, Arizona, Texas, Florida,etc.) all at the same time during different waves of the pandemic.

As for Michigan/Ohio/Indiana/Canada, I don't necessarily have a good explanation why Michigan rose during the spring but neighboring states didn't see near the same magnitude of a spring wave. It is worth pointing out that Michigan saw a very large wave in spring 2020, while Indiana/Ohio did not. It's odd that we would see the same pattern in March/April in both 2020/2021 if there isn't something more to it. Is the relatively small amount of "essential travel" in 2021 across the US/Canada border enough to seed a major spring wave in Michigan? I would argue that is unlikely, but I do recognize that my argument is a lot of "I don't know, but" type of arguments.

As for Michigan vs. Canada, Michigan peaked around April 12 in 2020 (almost exactly the same as this year), while Canada peaked the first week of May last year. Canada looks to have peaked about a week earlier this year than last year, but much like the Israel vs. Jordan/Lebanon/Palestine argument, we'll have to wait a few more weeks to get a clearer picture.
 

StormStalker

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The second shot really hammered me. Fatigue, chills, overall feeling of “blah”. It truly felt like I had the flu.

Yeah, that second shot is not joke. At least it's better than getting Covid though. That is what I kept telling myself.
 

Matthew70

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Interesting. So Denmark will not allow the Johnson and Johnson vaccine to be distributed yet America will. Also going to be a lot of big money made in fake vaccine passports and the software to override vaccine passports on the phone to make them fake. Also lawyers busy busy times ahead for them in the lawsuits.
 

maroonedinhsv

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Interesting. So Denmark will not allow the Johnson and Johnson vaccine to be distributed yet America will. Also going to be a lot of big money made in fake vaccine passports and the software to override vaccine passports on the phone to make them fake. Also lawyers busy busy times ahead for them in the lawsuits.
Are you a big supporter of Denmark’s governmental behavior and decisions?
 

ghost

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Because of the virus continuing to evolve into variant forms and a fairly large segment of the population refusing to get vaccinated, herd immunity will probably not be reached anytime soon with Covid and potentially never.
 

Matthew70

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No just find it interesting that European countries and others do not allow J&J vaccine yet America does. Not surprising though. Most politicians are in bed with big pharma. As said above does not matter because America is now reaching point where the ones not vaccinated will not be getting vaccinated. All polls show America will reach about 50-60% to take vaccines. I’m thinking it’s going to be much less.
 

ghost

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No just find it interesting that European countries and others do not allow J&J vaccine yet America does. Not surprising though. Most politicians are in bed with big pharma. As said above does not matter because America is now reaching point where the ones not vaccinated will not be getting vaccinated. All polls show America will reach about 50-60% to take vaccines. I’m thinking it’s going to be much less.
What's wrong with the J&J vaccine?
 

maroonedinhsv

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No just find it interesting that European countries and others do not allow J&J vaccine yet America does. Not surprising though. Most politicians are in bed with big pharma. As said above does not matter because America is now reaching point where the ones not vaccinated will not be getting vaccinated. All polls show America will reach about 50-60% to take vaccines. I’m thinking it’s going to be much less.
You may not have seen this on the racist Twitter feeds that you follow:
 
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Matthew70

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Depends on who you listen to. European countries say it causes blood clots and is more than what the American govt says. So it just comes down to who you believe. The govt. along with CDC has made this a train wreck. Not sure what the uproar is about taking vaccine. If someone takes it then they are safe or at least will have less severe symptoms. The vaccine does not keep someone from getting Covid though lessens chances they say. Yet we are not at a time yet where we know this is true because these vaccines are in all reality still in clinical trails. By end of year we should have an idea what happens when all those vaccinated have to get the booster or another round. Like Cuomo today saying someone who does not take the vaccine could kill their grandmother. Wait if the grandmother took the vaccine then she’s safe. The mixed signals from all sides is comical. I have no doubt lawyers will be extremely busy where people get fired for not taking vaccine to where people are being refused to enter private businesses that have had the vaccine. Just like many states are banning vaccine passports. There will be states requiring them to ones not. Easy to tell which ones will and will not. Blue and Red. Here in TN they are banned and all UT campuses have announced no requirement for vaccines to attend colleges. The mask is said to be nixed also at the campuses. Nothing official on that yet. SCOTUS will be the one to decide. It’s most definitely heading there.
 

maroonedinhsv

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Depends on who you listen to. European countries say it causes blood clots and is more than what the American govt says. So it just comes down to who you believe. The govt. along with CDC has made this a train wreck. Not sure what the uproar is about taking vaccine. If someone takes it then they are safe or at least will have less severe symptoms. The vaccine does not keep someone from getting Covid though lessens chances they say. Yet we are not at a time yet where we know this is true because these vaccines are in all reality still in clinical trails. By end of year we should have an idea what happens when all those vaccinated have to get the booster or another round. Like Cuomo today saying someone who does not take the vaccine could kill their grandmother. Wait if the grandmother took the vaccine then she’s safe. The mixed signals from all sides is comical. I have no doubt lawyers will be extremely busy where people get fired for not taking vaccine to where people are being refused to enter private businesses that have had the vaccine. Just like many states are banning vaccine passports. There will be states requiring them to ones not. Easy to tell which ones will and will not. Blue and Red. Here in TN they are banned and all UT campuses have announced no requirement for vaccines to attend colleges. The mask is said to be nixed also at the campuses. Nothing official on that yet. SCOTUS will be the one to decide. It’s most definitely heading there.
Time to teach you a couple of things:
1). Trump backs the J&J vaccine and criticized the Biden administration for pausing its distribution during the blood clot investigation.
2). Here’s a very simple probability example for you since you clearly have no understanding of mathematics. Let’s say the probability of a person catching covid when exposed is 90% if not vaccinated and 20% if vaccinated. Now, Joe has Covid and hangs out with Jimmy, then Jimmy visits his Granny. If neither Jimmy nor his Granny are vaccinated, Granny has an 81% of contracting Covid. If Jimmy isn’t vaccinated but Granny is, Granny has an 18% chance of catching Covid. If both ate vaccinated, Granny has a 4% chance of catching Covid. That’s how Jimmy killed his grandmother by not getting vaccinated. (Note that this a gross oversimplification for illustration purposes)
 
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Jacob

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The CDC released "Guidance for Operating Youth and Summer Camps During COVID-19.

Here's the link to the guidance. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/summer-camps.html

This guidance is perhaps more absurd than their politically motivated school opening guidance. Hopefully summer and youth camps around the nation will take this guidance and put it where it belongs, in the trash (or burn it during a summer bonfire).
 

Matthew70

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I already knew and understood that. The assumption was granny had taken the vaccine. May I ask how old you are? I own I’m not the most book smart individual but I am street smart and have common sense. Also I respect everyone even if different opinions. You seem to have no respect for others. Your attitude is I’m right your wrong. Reason I ask your age it seems to be a common theme of younger generations these days. Not realizing a lot of your older generations have seen a lot. I have not told anyone to not get the vaccine. I simply have a different opinion and would rather see what happens in the long term with the vaccines. You can not deny these vaccines are still in the clinical trials. Also the unexplained ladies having bleeding and periods. No that’s not from some conspiracy site. It’s actually been on the major news sites. Why no one knows. It seems no matter what I say you have already made up your mind about me. I am not against vaccines for I take the flu vaccine. I choose to listen and take in what I hear and see instead of being hateful and acting like a know it all attitude.
 

maroonedinhsv

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I already knew and understood that. The assumption was granny had taken the vaccine. May I ask how old you are? I own I’m not the most book smart individual but I am street smart and have common sense. Also I respect everyone even if different opinions. You seem to have no respect for others. Your attitude is I’m right your wrong. Reason I ask your age it seems to be a common theme of younger generations these days. Not realizing a lot of your older generations have seen a lot. I have not told anyone to not get the vaccine. I simply have a different opinion and would rather see what happens in the long term with the vaccines. You can not deny these vaccines are still in the clinical trials. Also the unexplained ladies having bleeding and periods. No that’s not from some conspiracy site. It’s actually been on the major news sites. Why no one knows. It seems no matter what I say you have already made up your mind about me. I am not against vaccines for I take the flu vaccine. I choose to listen and take in what I hear and see instead of being hateful and acting like a know it all attitude.
Yes, the difference between only the grandmother taking the vaccine vs grandmother and grandson taking the vaccine is statistically significant. You are constantly pointing out that the vaccine is not 100% effective. Given that, it is important for those around you to also be vaccinated in order to minimize the likelihood of you catching it. If you can’t understand that from a mathematical standpoint, I can’t help you.

As far as my age, I am 49. I respect others, but I do not respect ignorance nor do I respect idiocy.
 

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