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COVID-19 detected in United States (3 Viewers)


Mike S

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Georgia Tech has released a model showing the risk of COVID based on crowd size.

You find your county of interest, and slide the bar on the left of the screen to the desired crowd size. If you are in Huntsville/Madison County In a crowd of 100, the risk of being in contact with someone who has COVID-19 is greater than 99%. It is still 65% if the crowd size is reduced to 25.

 

warneagle

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49% in Arlington, which is a bit worse than I would have expected. I'm not going to restaurants and bars anyway, but I would've thought we were a little better off than that. Makes me even more nervous about what moving to Phase 3 will bring. Yesterday was Virginia's worst day since 7 June, almost 1000 new cases. I think the states that are re-opening now under the premise that the virus is well-controlled are going to look foolish in hindsight.
 

Kory

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I certainly don’t envy the decisions school boards across the country have to make. Unfortunately decisions to go completely online (as seen in some California districts) will effect the most disadvantaged and at-risk youth. Access to resources to facilitate virtual learning is something a lot of underprivileged youth do not have access too. In addition, the at-risk youth (and other children) will be losing access to medical/mental health resources, at-school feeding programs, tutoring programs, stability and structure not found in the home, and social interaction that are critical for development.

This will likely widen the disparities seen in youth education in America and will amplify the problems we see in the public education system. I hate to say it, but this will damage a whole generation of kids and their futures if certain blanket decisions are made without careful consideration.
 
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warneagle

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I certainly don’t envy the decisions school boards across the country have to make. Unfortunately decisions to go completely online (as seen in some California districts) will effect the most disadvantaged and at-risk youth. Access to resources to facilitate virtual learning is something a lot of underprivileged youth do not have access too. In addition, the at-risk youth (and other children) will be losing access to medical/mental health resources, at-school feeding programs, tutoring programs, stability and structure not found in the home, and social interaction that are critical for development.

This will likely widen the disparities seen in youth education in America and will amplify the problems we see in the public education system. I hate to say it, but this will damage a whole generation of kids and their futures if certain blanket decisions are made without careful consideration.
Yeah, this is another one of those problems with no good solution. Those at-risk kids are also losing things like after school programs and career/technical education that's less suited to an online environment. But if you send the kids back to school, then it's going to be the at-risk kids and their families that are most vulnerable in that situation too, because they're the ones who are likely to have less access to healthcare if they did get sick. Not to mention the teachers, many of whom are old enough that they're in the most vulnerable group. And there are a lot of school districts that aren't going to have the money to implement the kinds of measures it would take to make on-campus learning at least somewhat safe. Crises like COVID have an unfortunate way of shining a light on broader social problems and education is no exception.
 

maroonedinhsv

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Yeah, this is another one of those problems with no good solution. Those at-risk kids are also losing things like after school programs and career/technical education that's less suited to an online environment. But if you send the kids back to school, then it's going to be the at-risk kids and their families that are most vulnerable in that situation too, because they're the ones who are likely to have less access to healthcare if they did get sick. Not to mention the teachers, many of whom are old enough that they're in the most vulnerable group. And there are a lot of school districts that aren't going to have the money to implement the kinds of measures it would take to make on-campus learning at least somewhat safe. Crises like COVID have an unfortunate way of shining a light on broader social problems and education is no exception.
It's worth noting that many of the kids in that category are also the most likely to live in multi-generational homes increasing the likelihood of transmission to older relatives.
 

warneagle

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It's worth noting that many of the kids in that category are also the most likely to live in multi-generational homes increasing the likelihood of transmission to older relatives.
Yep, no matter which path you choose you just keep running into more knock-on effects.
 

Jacob

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Arizona will be interesting to watch for the next couple weeks to see if they may have already hit their peak. Seems like a lot of places around the world saw their peak 4-6 weeks-ish after their initial surge. If that pattern were to hold, Arizona should be right near their top. There are some signals in their data this might be the case, but we'll just have to watch it and see.
 

Evan

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Then stuff like this...we need to be accurate in the reporting of infection numbers or you will lose the trust the public has.

Look at the death numbers for Puerto Rico, BOP, and West Virginia. Pretty clear those places/institutions have major errors in their data and/or are lying about their fatality counts.

It's sad, but it seems pretty clear there are major integrity issues with the data coming from many states and places.
 

Jacob

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I don’t know how it is in other places, but it is a pain to get a test near Birmingham right now.
Of the two testing sites closest to me, one hasn't tested for the second day in a row due to supplier problems, and the other I drove by 20 minutes before they opened this morning, and the line was somewhere between 50-100 people lined up waiting to get tested.

I'm on day 4/5 of mild symptoms, so I'm just going to assume it's COVID and behave as such. I'm reading a lot of tests in the area are taking 7-10 days to get results anyhow, which is useless to me at this point.
 

skelly

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Of the two testing sites closest to me, one hasn't tested for the second day in a row due to supplier problems, and the other I drove by 20 minutes before they opened this morning, and the line was somewhere between 50-100 people lined up waiting to get tested.

I'm on day 4/5 of mild symptoms, so I'm just going to assume it's COVID and behave as such. I'm reading a lot of tests in the area are taking 7-10 days to get results anyhow, which is useless to me at this point.
Just a regular doctor’s office can get you test results in that time...
 

ghost

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Of the two testing sites closest to me, one hasn't tested for the second day in a row due to supplier problems, and the other I drove by 20 minutes before they opened this morning, and the line was somewhere between 50-100 people lined up waiting to get tested.

I'm on day 4/5 of mild symptoms, so I'm just going to assume it's COVID and behave as such. I'm reading a lot of tests in the area are taking 7-10 days to get results anyhow, which is useless to me at this point.
Will pray that your symptoms stay mild and go away soon. Take care
 

Jacob

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Will pray that your symptoms stay mild and go away soon. Take care
Thanks. I’m not particularly worried about myself, if it was any other year I would still be going into work and traveling, I just hope I didn’t spread it around much before I started isolating. (assuming it is in fact COVID)
 

Jacob

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Arizona will be interesting to watch for the next couple weeks to see if they may have already hit their peak. Seems like a lot of places around the world saw their peak 4-6 weeks-ish after their initial surge. If that pattern were to hold, Arizona should be right near their top. There are some signals in their data this might be the case, but we'll just have to watch it and see.
Seeing more signs out of Arizona that they are perhaps past their peak. Deaths lag so they may still be going up there, but a very useful indicator is ER visits with CLI (covid-like illness) and it topped two weeks ago and has fallen quickly. NYC did the same thing near their peak, one of the first indicators that things had turned there was ER visits with CLI fell quickly.

Arizona had a slow and steady rise from 3.8% of ER visits reporting CLI in the middle of May, to a peak of 15.5% about two weeks ago. In the two weeks that followed, it fell back to 14.1%, and now 8.7% for the most recent week. Could be a blip, but also might be a very encouraging sign.
 

gangstonc

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Seeing more signs out of Arizona that they are perhaps past their peak. Deaths lag so they may still be going up there, but a very useful indicator is ER visits with CLI (covid-like illness) and it topped two weeks ago and has fallen quickly. NYC did the same thing near their peak, one of the first indicators that things had turned there was ER visits with CLI fell quickly.

Arizona had a slow and steady rise from 3.8% of ER visits reporting CLI in the middle of May, to a peak of 15.5% about two weeks ago. In the two weeks that followed, it fell back to 14.1%, and now 8.7% for the most recent week. Could be a blip, but also might be a very encouraging sign.
How do you find that type of data? I’d like to see those numbers for Alabama?
 

Jacob

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How do you find that type of data? I’d like to see those numbers for Alabama?
Arizona has some of the best available data out there from their public health department. Here's the link to that data: https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/...se-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php

For the metrics I referenced, click on the "Hopsital COVID-like & Influenza-like illness Surveillance"

Unfortunately I don't know where to find that data for other locations, I just happened to stumble across this one and also the data for NYC a few months ago (which I saw linked from Twitter). I'd love to have something like that for all of the southern states, but I'm not sure if it exists or not.
 

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