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COVID-19 detected in United States (5 Viewers)


maroonedinhsv

Member
Messages
391
Location
Harvest, AL
I wasn't making an argument against wearing masks. How will not wearing a mask make this thing last longer though? If anything, not wearing a mask should make its duration shorter, as the virus will eventually burn itself out if it gets widespread enough. Wearing a mask will limit that spread (again, not saying this is a bad thing, obviously), but it'll also prolong the virus being around. That was really the point I was making.
That is working under the assumption that contraction leads to immunity, correct?
 

maroonedinhsv

Member
Messages
391
Location
Harvest, AL
Correct. If that is proven to not be the case, it paints a much more difficult picture for the future, and all but eliminates the vaccine option
I am admittedly far too ignorant in this area. Does your immunity weaken over time such that the vaccine would need to be an annual/semi-annual/bi-annual sort of thing, or will it be a one-time thing? If immunity degrades over time (thinking along the lines of a half-life), would it make more sense for everyone to get the vaccine within a very short time period to basically shut the virus down?
 

Jacob

Member
Messages
580
Location
Moody, AL
I am admittedly far too ignorant in this area. Does your immunity weaken over time such that the vaccine would need to be an annual/semi-annual/bi-annual sort of thing, or will it be a one-time thing? If immunity degrades over time (thinking along the lines of a half-life), would it make more sense for everyone to get the vaccine within a very short time period to basically shut the virus down?
I would like to give you a thorough answer...but your first sentence applies to me as well.
 

ARCC

Member
Messages
415
Location
Coosa county
I am admittedly far too ignorant in this area. Does your immunity weaken over time such that the vaccine would need to be an annual/semi-annual/bi-annual sort of thing, or will it be a one-time thing? If immunity degrades over time (thinking along the lines of a half-life), would it make more sense for everyone to get the vaccine within a very short time period to basically shut the virus down?
I found this thread interesting and add in with it the studies that have shown 80% have Tcells that fight the virus despite never being infected. This who virus thing has really helped me learn a lot.

 

skelly

Member
Messages
521
Location
Birmingham
Here’s what we should know by now, and if we do or don’t, it’s basically classified information for all intents and purposes. Once your exposed to the virus, how long until the onset of symptoms (or you’ll be a symptomatic), and how long until the illness runs its course and you are no longer contagious? (If you don’t get critically ill/complications)...
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,568
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
I see Tuscaloosa is in the headlines and not for good reason. Let me just say...I’m very skeptical of the story being put forth. UA has been actively investigating these COVID party rumors for weeks now and nothing. They look to be just rumors. Nothing on social media (usually the first place to go to find out what Gen Z is up to). The story is too elaborate and outrageous...a money pot that people pay into (including the infectious) that then goes to the first to test positive? Yeah okay.

But how about we report on the positive? DCH health system has had declining numbers of inpatients with COVID. It’s actually some of our lowest numbers since reopening and since the surge of geriatric care patients when COVID went on to ravage a few of our mental health hospitals and nursing homes.


We're taking the virus seriously in Tuscaloosa...despite how things are being portrayed by the media.
 
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KoD

Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
2020 Supporter
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
1,079
Location
Huntsville, AL
I am admittedly far too ignorant in this area. Does your immunity weaken over time such that the vaccine would need to be an annual/semi-annual/bi-annual sort of thing, or will it be a one-time thing? If immunity degrades over time (thinking along the lines of a half-life), would it make more sense for everyone to get the vaccine within a very short time period to basically shut the virus down?
That would depend on a number of factors including the viral mutation rate, uniqueness of the viruses function and structure, the incubation to disease timeframe and the effectiveness of the vaccine to produce lymphocytic production of memory cells to mount a rapid secondary immune response.
The viral mutation rate is measured by frequent genome sequencing of the virus and data shows it's about average for viruses (influenza mutates around 4x quicker and is a smaller virus). There's about twice as much RNA in a coronavirus versus influenza virus and they are structurally and functionally different. It appears portions of the S protein in coronaviruses are targeted by the immune system to identify and fight it. A potential vaccine could be recombinant proteins based off one of these targets and if successful could produce a resilient years-long immunity. There's also other avenues such as fragmented/inactivated virus vaccines. (Which carry greater risks of side-effects and sickness).

Whether or not you'd need booster shots would depend on how much of an immune response a vaccine evokes and balancing effectiveness with adverse reactions. In addition, if an infectious agent rapidly replicates and spreads quickly you'd likely need multiple boosters so the immune system can immediately react before the infection gets established and cascades. If disease progression is slow and cell damage happens well after initial incubation then a single vaccine may be all that's needed for immunity. In this case covid-19 seems to impact alveolar epithelial cells in the lungs and potentially damage the kidneys and vascular system likely mediated by it's utilization of the very common ACE-2 receptor. Aside from that direct viral damage, the most severe cases indicate that the immune response causes the most substantial life-threatening injury well after infection. If a vaccine could provide even a miniscule amount of passive immunity then I imagine there'd be a significant reduction in the chances of developing a destructive latent septic shock. That wouldn't be as good as an assured rapid immunity of course and hopefully any vaccine developed performs more like a measles shot and less like a flu shot.

The most most important thing in eradicating this virus if a vaccine were available is for everyone to get immunized. Secondary to that, the quicker we're immune as a group, the less likely mutations could make the vaccine ineffective. The more the virus replicates and spreads the more variances in the genome. Wearing a mask and keeping infections as low as possible while a vaccine is being developed would help ensure the vaccine actually works. The type of vaccine it will be and it's mockery of the virus would influence if SARS-CoV-2 can mutate enough to evade the immune system. For those who are immunocompromised hopefully plasma antibody therapy continues to show promise and we can minimize human reservoirs for this pathogen.
 
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KoD

Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
2020 Supporter
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Messages
1,079
Location
Huntsville, AL
Here’s what we should know by now, and if we do or don’t, it’s basically classified information for all intents and purposes. Once your exposed to the virus, how long until the onset of symptoms (or you’ll be a symptomatic), and how long until the illness runs its course and you are no longer contagious? (If you don’t get critically ill/complications)...
The process of infection to sickness varies so much among cases there's not a specific timeframe but instead a range and average. Current data seems to indicate peak viral load occurs on average ~4 days after infection and symptom onset may be as early as a couple days to over a week (CDC says possibly 14 days) but averages 5 or 6 days after the initial infection. There's a disparity between maximum viral count and symptoms so the most infectious time is assumed to be during onset and in the earliest several days of becoming symptomatic. Most cases are mild and appear to resolve after about two weeks, however severe cases have been documented lasting as long as six weeks. It's unknown how infectious a person is in a prolonged severe disease state. I'm curious to know how much of the virus is killed when there's a massive immune response and if their critical condition is immunological only or if the virus re-establishes itself in the chaos.

In general there's a lot of variation and each individuals health and even the inoculation dose of the virus will impact the onset and severity, if even becoming noticably sick at all.
It's difficult and time consuming to get good quality data as our testing for the virus is looking for specific strands of viral RNA which last in the body after the virus is destroyed and a person is no longer contagious. Instead scientists have to culture for the virus and see if they can grow it in a highly infectious containment lab (level 3) and that requires frequent swabbing, finding reliable mediums for viral replication and many trials performed under strict precautions to get the most consistent and reliable results to refine our knowledge.
 

skelly

Member
Messages
521
Location
Birmingham
The process of infection to sickness varies so much among cases there's not a specific timeframe but instead a range and average. Current data seems to indicate peak viral load occurs on average ~4 days after infection and symptom onset may be as early as a couple days to over a week (CDC says possibly 14 days) but averages 5 or 6 days after the initial infection. There's a disparity between maximum viral count and symptoms so the most infectious time is assumed to be during onset and in the earliest several days of becoming symptomatic. Most cases are mild and appear to resolve after about two weeks, however severe cases have been documented lasting as long as six weeks. It's unknown how infectious a person is in a prolonged severe disease state. I'm curious to know how much of the virus is killed when there's a massive immune response and if their critical condition is immunological only or if the virus re-establishes itself in the chaos.

In general there's a lot of variation and each individuals health and even the inoculation dose of the virus will impact the onset and severity, if even becoming noticably sick at all.
It's difficult and time consuming to get good quality data as our testing for the virus is looking for specific strands of viral RNA which last in the body after the virus is destroyed and a person is no longer contagious. Instead scientists have to culture for the virus and see if they can grow it in a highly infectious containment lab (level 3) and that requires frequent swabbing, finding reliable mediums for viral replication and many trials performed under strict precautions to get the most consistent and reliable results to refine our knowledge.
I appreciate this. It helps to make sense of it. You can’t really read or hear about what you’ve shared in much of any kind of media. Thank you.
 

Evan

Member
Messages
1,615
Location
McCalla, AL
One of the most frustrating things about this virus is how little discussion there is about the potential long-term impacts of becoming infected. As SARS-CoV-2 is a novel virus, our understanding of its impacts on the human body are still quite limited.

Yes, we can extrapolate a bit from SARS/MERS, but ultimately our data is still quite limited. Even the limited data we have is rarely discussed as the media's attention seems to be primarily focused on acute cases and the spread of new cases. Those things are obviously very important, but helping people understand that SARS-CoV-2 may cause chronic disease would likely assist in getting the public to take it more seriously.

I've heard way too many people intimate that they wish they could go ahead and contract the virus so they could stop worrying or no longer be subject to the need to take precautions to avoid the virus. Ignoring, for a moment, the current lack of clarity surrounding antibody reliant immunity, why are people not considering the potential long-term impacts? I can only guess that people think once they've recovered from COVID-19 that they're in the clear. I would strongly urge them to take a look back at history and do a little research on chronic conditions caused by viruses.

We have no idea whether or not COVID-19 results in permanent damage to the average human body, but based off of other similar viruses we absolutely know that *some* people will develop chronic conditions/disease as a result of contracting SARS-CoV-2. The lack of coverage of these long-term impacts and effects by Public health departments, news media, etc is disturbing. Not enough thought is taking place on this subject.
 

Evan

Member
Messages
1,615
Location
McCalla, AL
I see Tuscaloosa is in the headlines and not for good reason. Let me just say...I’m very skeptical of the story being put forth. UA has been actively investigating these COVID party rumors for weeks now and nothing. They look to be just rumors. Nothing on social media (usually the first place to go to find out what Gen Z is up to). The story is too elaborate and outrageous...a money pot that people pay into (including the infectious) that then goes to the first to test positive? Yeah okay.

But how about we report on the positive? DCH health system has had declining numbers of inpatients with COVID. It’s actually some of our lowest numbers since reopening and since the surge of geriatric care patients when COVID went on to ravage a few of our mental health hospitals and nursing homes.


We're taking the virus seriously in Tuscaloosa...despite how things are being portrayed by the media.
Yes, I have serious doubts that "COVID parties" as being presented by the media are occurring or are, in fact, real. To say I'm skeptical would be an understatement.
 

Evan

Member
Messages
1,615
Location
McCalla, AL
That would depend on a number of factors including the viral mutation rate, uniqueness of the viruses function and structure, the incubation to disease timeframe and the effectiveness of the vaccine to produce lymphocytic production of memory cells to mount a rapid secondary immune response.
The viral mutation rate is measured by frequent genome sequencing of the virus and data shows it's about average for viruses (influenza mutates around 4x quicker and is a smaller virus). There's about twice as much RNA in a coronavirus versus influenza virus and they are structurally and functionally different. It appears portions of the S protein in coronaviruses are targeted by the immune system to identify and fight it. A potential vaccine could be recombinant proteins based off one of these targets and if successful could produce a resilient years-long immunity. There's also other avenues such as fragmented/inactivated virus vaccines. (Which carry greater risks of side-effects and sickness).

Whether or not you'd need booster shots would depend on how much of an immune response a vaccine evokes and balancing effectiveness with adverse reactions. In addition, if an infectious agent rapidly replicates and spreads quickly you'd likely need multiple boosters so the immune system can immediately react before the infection gets established and cascades. If disease progression is slow and cell damage happens well after initial incubation then a single vaccine may be all that's needed for immunity. In this case covid-19 seems to impact alveolar epithelial cells in the lungs and potentially damage the kidneys and vascular system likely mediated by it's utilization of the very common ACE-2 receptor. Aside from that direct viral damage, the most severe cases indicate that the immune response causes the most substantial life-threatening injury well after infection. If a vaccine could provide even a miniscule amount of passive immunity then I imagine there'd be a significant reduction in the chances of developing a destructive latent septic shock. That wouldn't be as good as an assured rapid immunity of course and hopefully any vaccine developed performs more like a measles shot and less like a flu shot.

The most most important thing in eradicating this virus if a vaccine were available is for everyone to get immunized. Secondary to that, the quicker we're immune as a group, the less likely mutations could make the vaccine ineffective. The more the virus replicates and spreads the more variances in the genome. Wearing a mask and keeping infections as low as possible while a vaccine is being developed would help ensure the vaccine actually works. The type of vaccine it will be and it's mockery of the virus would influence if SARS-CoV-2 can mutate enough to evade the immune system. For those who are immunocompromised hopefully plasma antibody therapy continues to show promise and we can minimize human reservoirs for this pathogen.
If anyone is interested in tracking the mutagenicity of SARS-CoV-2, Nextstrain.org is the place for you.

Here's their data and analysis as it pertains to SARS-CoV-2 introduction, mutation, and spread in North America -- with a particular focus on identifying and tracking different dominant major strains.
 

bjdeming

Member
Messages
224
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
What you bolded however is still true. Proportional to the number of positive cases, hospitalizations are significantly lower, even in Alabama and other southern states.
That's what I was thinking of, though you say it better.

It is very difficult to get a handle on this; I found this article helpful; it also underlines what KoD and others on the frontlines in the South are experiencing, where 1 of 9 tests comes back positive (per that article).

They have other helpful COVID data articles, too.
 

bjdeming

Member
Messages
224
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
Not wearing masks is just going to make it more widespread. Wearing a mask is an incredibly minor thing that requires almost no effort. If it prevents even one case, it's worth it. It's a bad situation already, but not taking the easiest steps available to mitigate it will make it worse and for longer.
I agree (and also what KoD wrote about masks up above).

Per the COVID tracker course I took, here are two excellent reasons for a mask:

1. You are infectious for a couple days before symptoms show up.

2. Asymptomatic cases still shed virus.

Social distancing, where possible, and masks both keep virus-laden respiratory droplets from spreading.
 
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bjdeming

Member
Messages
224
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
Here’s what we should know by now, and if we do or don’t, it’s basically classified information for all intents and purposes. Once your exposed to the virus, how long until the onset of symptoms (or you’ll be a symptomatic), and how long until the illness runs its course and you are no longer contagious? (If you don’t get critically ill/complications)...
Not classified. There are lots of reliable resources that can answer your questions, but I got a lot out of this one: https://www.coursera.org/learn/covid-19-contact-tracing?edocomorp=covid-19-contact-tracing
 

Evan

Member
Messages
1,615
Location
McCalla, AL
1758 new cases in Alabama. Over 16% positive. Major (and growing) increases in Jefferson and Madison and counties. The 4th of July holiday couldn't come at a worse time.
 

Lori

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Staff member
Administrator
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Messages
905
Location
Pelham, AL
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
I debated on whether or not to post this. A member of my household has COVID symptoms and was tested yesterday. Won't get the results until Monday. Rapid flu/strep were both negative. Hoping for the best.
Have y’all gotten the results? Praying!!
 

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