COVID-19 detected in United States (5 Viewers)


Evan

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LANGUAGE WARNING

DO NOT CLICK ON THIS VIDEO IF YOU HAVE SENSITIVE EARS, ARE AT WORK, HAVE CHILDREN AROUND, ETC.


The governor of West Virginia is not messing around!


His statement, which I don't believe for one second
He's lying when he says he has never used that word. That's just stupid. However, I had a good pair of headphones on and I immediately noticed the popping and audio distortion. I kind of buy that it was an audio glitch. Don't remotely believe he's *never* said the F-word, and it was incredibly dumb to undermine your own credibility by making such a ridiculous claim.
 

KoD

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There's some distortion I hear when he says follow, but how do we account for him visibly saying a word before "follow"and if it wasn't the profanity what was it?
 

bjdeming

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Oregon's governor announced the latest steps in reopening. I like this announcement.

Yes, the one about contact tracing, isolation, and quarantines freaked me out, but I'm not alone in that. (Warning: Link is to an article in The Onion, containing harsh parody and also an F-bomb.)

This is really an awful situation, and I'll bet most politicians, on both sides of the aisle, wish it hadn't happened during an election year (or at all, of course). Nobody really knows what to expect -- the people from their representatives, the representatives from the people.

:(

Also, if anyone is interested. Reuters has a daily graphic on global numbers on its front page. They only credit "Reuters research" as a source. We still lead in total number of cases and deaths, but for a while now Belgium has had the unfortunate top position of numbers of deaths per 100,000 people. And lately Qatar is leading the pack in new cases per 100,000 people (667)

Update, May 16th: Yesterday, when the news was filled with stories of states lifting some restrictions, I noticed that the Reuters site had dropped their statistics on deaths and illnesses per 100,000 people. Now it's just the US stats and with our larger overall population this makes the thing look like a major catastrophe. Well, it is, everywhere, but it's probably safe to assume, at least right now, that Belgjum and Qatar still lead in deaths and illnesses per 100,000 people. ?? why that's not newsworthy any more.
 
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Jacob

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Yesterday, May 7th, saw the greatest number of "reported deaths" from COVID in the US in a single day at a little over 2700.

This is where the data is frustrating, because it isn't a "deaths in the last 24 hours", it's just what was reported yesterday. Approximately 700 of those deaths are old cases from NY that they went back and identified in nursing homes, so those could be deaths at any point over the last 2-3 months.

It would be very useful if there was a database out there that showed deaths by days, not just when they were reported. Obviously there would be a multi-week lag with this data, but it would give all of us following it a much better idea where things stand.
 

skelly

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Yesterday, May 7th, saw the greatest number of "reported deaths" from COVID in the US in a single day at a little over 2700.

This is where the data is frustrating, because it isn't a "deaths in the last 24 hours", it's just what was reported yesterday. Approximately 700 of those deaths are old cases from NY that they went back and identified in nursing homes, so those could be deaths at any point over the last 2-3 months.

It would be very useful if there was a database out there that showed deaths by days, not just when they were reported. Obviously there would be a multi-week lag with this data, but it would give all of us following it a much better idea where things stand.
I seriously frustratingly believe that straight forward information is purposely withheld. All but regular folks are having a field day with this. Political partisanship. Scammers. People who were never in a business suddenly getting fat federal checks to supply PPE. Preplandemic fanatics. Big government fanatics actually making them look sane. People that don’t ever want normal again. I’m sick and tired of this bizzarro world crap that people have made with the aid of the virus.
 
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skelly

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Kay Ivey Safer at Home order amended and extended to May 22. Personal contact businesses can open Monday the 11 with whatever protocols they can do I guess masks and gloves. Restaurants at 50 % capacity and spread out seating. Churches with emphasis on each congregation figure out how to incorporate social distancing on your own. Gyms. Schools to remain closed...
 
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Evan

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Yesterday, May 7th, saw the greatest number of "reported deaths" from COVID in the US in a single day at a little over 2700.

This is where the data is frustrating, because it isn't a "deaths in the last 24 hours", it's just what was reported yesterday. Approximately 700 of those deaths are old cases from NY that they went back and identified in nursing homes, so those could be deaths at any point over the last 2-3 months.

It would be very useful if there was a database out there that showed deaths by days, not just when they were reported. Obviously there would be a multi-week lag with this data, but it would give all of us following it a much better idea where things stand.
Let me frustrate you a bit further...

Yesterday is now the new peak day for new COVID cases in Alabama -- 355 new cases. Here's some data that I pulled from the past week:

Code:
Date     Total Tests    Cum. Deaths        Cases Per Day                Tests Per Day            Deaths Per Day

05/01        94,406         289                 226                          6,430                     17
05/02        98,716         288                 317                          4,310                    -1
05/03        101,286        290                 277                          2,570                     2
05/04        103,302        298                 224                          2,016                     8
05/05        107,602        315                 325                          4,300                     17
05/06        112,068        343                 254                          4,466                     28
05/07        116,319        369                 355                          4,251                     26

Let's talk peak numbers since the pandemic began:

Peak number of tests per day was back on April 25th when 18,703 tests were reported.
Peak number of deaths per day was back on April 22nd when 34 deaths were reported.
Peak number of cases per day was YESTERDAY when 355 new cases were reported.
Oddly, outside of April 22nd when there were 34 deaths, and April 21st when there were 31, the only other days with more than 20 deaths were May 6th and 7th. Another odd data point: There were 6,430 tests reported on May 1st. 4th highest total outside of April 25th (18,703), April 29th (9,464), and April 14th (7,881). Again, as we don't know how long these tests are taking to process, all we can do is presume there is that SOME kind of lag between tests reported, cases reported, and new deaths. I found an article from April 20th that stated the average processing time for a test is 72 hours, but that some tests could take "sometimes up to a week" before results are reported.

It *seems* that either we haven't hit our real peak yet or that our case/death reductions have plateaued and are on their way back up. Unless, of course, there's a disconnect between how the different data points are being reported. I'm not sure what to conclude right now. When I first mentioned that new peak in cases back on May 2nd, I said we would want to re-visit in the coming days/week. From the data I can find, our 7 and 14 day averages for cases per day are clearly on their way up and have reach a new peak average. The 7 and 14 day averages for deaths per day are higher than they were two weeks ago, and are fairly close to their previous peak.

Our testing, however, is only marginally up over the last 14 day average (and still includes April 25th's 19k test dump) )and the 7 day average seems flat outside of a small peak around April 30th - May 2nd. That small peak represents a 7 day average period where we were testing about 1000-2000 more people per day than the current 7 day average period. That said, it can definitely be noticed that we've gone from a 14 day moving average of 2000-2500 tests per day up until April 25th to closer to 4000 tests per day now. Yet, somehow, until the past week, our peak cases per day were occurring around April 8th - 15th. One explanation is that during our earlier peak in cases a higher percentage of people were testing positive and now the % positive rate is lower. Can't 100% prove that as Alabama doesn't release that data, and the April 25th test dump is kind of skewing our testing averages, but it may be true.

One thing that I have really started to pick up on is that deaths lag cases by 5-14 days. That is borne out by the recent surge in cases we had starting around May 1st and the ensuing sharp increases in deaths to the upper 20s. Unfortunately, our cases counts have accelerated even more since May 1st, so we're probably looking at meeting or exceeding our old deaths per day peaks in the coming week or two. Ultimately, it doesn't look like we're seeing a reduction in cases or deaths. If anything, both are on an upward trend. I hope Ivey's recent relaxation of the stay-at-home order was the right thing to do. The good news is that if we make it through the next few weeks without an even sharper uptick in deaths, cases, and hospitalizations, we might be able to say we've reached a peak as long as testing keeps up. As of today, however, the COVID situation in Alabama seems to be as serious as it has ever been.
 
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ghost

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Let me frustrate you a bit further...

Yesterday is now the new peak day for new COVID cases in Alabama -- 355 new cases. Here's some data that I pulled from the past week:

Code:
Date     Total Tests    Cum. Deaths        Cases Per Day                Tests Per Day            Deaths Per Day

05/01        94,406         289                 226                          6,430                     17
05/02        98,716         288                 317                          4,310                    -1
05/03        101,286        290                 277                          2,570                     2
05/04        103,302        298                 224                          2,016                     8
05/05        107,602        315                 325                          4,300                     17
05/06        112,068        343                 254                          4,466                     28
05/07        116,319        369                 355                          4,251                     26

Let's talk peak numbers since the pandemic began:

Peak number of tests per day was back on April 25th when 18,703 tests were reported.
Peak number of deaths per day was back on April 22nd when 34 deaths were reported.
Peak number of cases per day was YESTERDAY when 355 new cases were reported.
Oddly, outside of April 22nd when there were 34 deaths, and April 21st when there were 31, the only other days with more than 20 deaths were May 6th and 7th. Another odd data point: There were 6,430 tests reported on May 1st. 4th highest total outside of April 25th (18,703), April 29th (9,464), and April 14th (7,881). Again, as we don't know how long these tests are taking to process, all we can do is presume there is that SOME kind of lag between tests reported, cases reported, and new deaths. I found an article from April 20th that stated the average processing time for a test is 72 hours, but that some tests could take "sometimes up to a week" before results are reported.

It *seems* that either we haven't hit our real peak yet or that our case/death reductions have plateaued and are on their way back up. Unless, of course, there's a disconnect between how the different data points are being reported. I'm not sure what to conclude right now. When I first mentioned that new peak in cases back on May 2nd, I said we would want to re-visit in the coming days/week. From the data I can find, our 7 and 14 day averages for cases per day are clearly on their way up and have reach a new peak average. The 7 and 14 day averages for deaths per day are higher than they were two weeks ago, and are fairly close to their previous peak.

Our testing, however, is only marginally up over the last 14 day average (and still includes April 25th's 19k test dump) )and the 7 day average seems flat outside of a small peak around April 30th - May 2nd. That small peak represents a 7 day average period where we were testing about 1000-2000 more people per day than the current 7 day average period. That said, it can definitely be noticed that we've gone from a 14 day moving average of 2000-2500 tests per day up until April 25th to closer to 4000 tests per day now. Yet, somehow, until the past week, our peak cases per day were occurring around April 8th - 15th. One explanation is that during our earlier peak in cases a higher percentage of people were testing positive and now the % positive rate is lower. Can't 100% prove that as Alabama doesn't release that data, and the April 25th test dump is kind of skewing our testing averages, but it may be true.

One thing that I have really started to pick up on is that deaths lag cases by 5-14 days. That is borne out by the recent surge in cases we had starting around May 1st and the ensuing sharp increases in deaths to the upper 20s. Unfortunately, our cases counts have accelerated even more since May 1st, so we're probably looking at meeting or exceeding our old deaths per day peaks in the coming week or two. Ultimately, it doesn't look like we're seeing a reduction in cases or deaths. If anything, both are on an upward trend. I hope Ivey's recent relaxation of the stay-at-home order was the right thing to do. The good news is that if we make it through the next few weeks without an even sharper uptick in deaths, cases, and hospitalizations, we might be able to say we've reached a peak as long as testing keeps up. As of today, however, the COVID situation in Alabama seems to be as serious as it has ever been.
Why does the number of total tests for a certain day not equal the sum of the previous day's tests plus the tests per day. e.g. on May 2 there were a total of 98,716 tests that have been performed (I'm assuming cumulative since testing began) and on that day there were 4,310 tests performed. I would have thought the number of total tests for May 3 to be 98,716 + 4,310 = 103,026 but the reported number is 101,286. ???
 

bjdeming

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Per OSU on Facebook, results of testing about 450 people here in Corvallis over a weekend in late April suggest that, at that point, 2 in 1,000 Corvallis residents had the virus. (We're just under 60,000 here.)

It's good they're getting data, and just the sight of a number is nice, but what does it mean?

They quote the project leader as saying these numbers aren't good news or bad but just a way to better understand the virus in terms of Corvallis statistics.

It reminds me of a tweet I saw:


What else can scientists do? That's their thing, and this tweet is pretty much playing out in real time, minus the extinction-level event, as far as we know.

As far as we know . . .

My feeling is that this isn't a new plague but whoever does get sick could be in trouble. And the most vulnerable demographic is the same one that changed the country in dramatic ways, half a century ago, basically through sheer numbers.

Aged Boomers are the elephant in this room.

I'm glad the tough decisions about reopening aren't up to me.

Getting back to normal might happen faster if we the people promised not to sue the powers that be, and if said PTB (at all levels) promised not to pull a Hungary.

But life doesn't work like that. Such high-stakes promises couldn't be made. We've just got to struggle out from under this messy, costly thing together.
 

Evan

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Why does the number of total tests for a certain day not equal the sum of the previous day's tests plus the tests per day. e.g. on May 2 there were a total of 98,716 tests that have been performed (I'm assuming cumulative since testing began) and on that day there were 4,310 tests performed. I would have thought the number of total tests for May 3 to be 98,716 + 4,310 = 103,026 but the reported number is 101,286. ???
Think of it this way. At the end of the day on May 2nd, a cumulative total of 98,716 tests had been reported. However, the day actually began with the closing number from May 1st which was 94,406. Thus, on May 2nd, 4310 tests were reported. You were on the right track, but we wouldn't add 4,310 to the cumulative number (98,716) on May 2nd because that 4,310 is already included in the 98,716.

I didn't want to have to pull data dating back to the first reporting day of the outbreak, so April 30's numbers are not included. I think that's what causes the confusion as May 1st lists 6,430 tests reported, but to get that number you have to subtract April 30th's cumulative total from that of May 1st's and I explicitly didn't include the data for April 30th. But, you can get the cumulative number for April 30th by subtracting the 6,430 from the cumulative total for May 1st.

In sum, it's a current end of day versus previous end of day measure, so you have to think of the baseline as starting from the prior day's cumulative total. Hope this helps. I actually pulled the data manually and put it in an Excel spreadsheet with formulas to do the calcs. Then I realized the entire dataset I wanted was available on a separate page. :rolleyes:
 

Evan

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FYI, 339 new cases yesterday. Tied for 2nd highest daily growth with April 9th -- the record is 355 on the day before yesterday (May 7th). The 7 and 14 day averages for new cases are now well above their previous highs and both are on sharp upslopes. Thankfully, deaths were only 13. Little over 6000 tests were reported yesterday, so that's good news.

South Alabama appears to be the hardest hit area currently, but Marshall County has a large ongoing outbreak and Franklin County's recent 7/14 day average for cases has climbed by a huge amount.
 

Lori

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My mother in law (89) and father in law (92) have COVID-19.
My mother in law went into the hospital with symptoms around Easter weekend. Her test was negative and she went home a week later. She was home 5 days and her breathing got worse so they admitted her again, her test was positive.
My sister in law was also sick and taking care of her mother when she came home. My sis in law is getting her antibodies checked, she had symptoms along with the loss of taste and smell.
My father in law started showing symptoms and he’s been in the hospital for a week.
My mother in law is recovering amazingly and that’s after her being so sick, she was almost intubated.
My father in law has dementia but is hanging in there and has been eating.
The isolation this virus causes is as dangerous as the virus.
We can’t see them, love on them or anything.
They’ve been married for 66 years, I wish they’d at least let them see each other.

All we can figure out is either she caught it from a postal worker (they live in Montgomery) that tested positive right after she had mailed something or from going to Publix during “senior hours” and going to Dollar General.

We begged her not to go out that we’d order what she needed.

This virus is real, highly contagious and we’re praying not deadly!!
 

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