Let me frustrate you a bit further...
Yesterday is now the new peak day for new COVID cases in Alabama -- 355 new cases. Here's some data that I pulled from the past week:
Code:
Date Total Tests Cum. Deaths Cases Per Day Tests Per Day Deaths Per Day
05/01 94,406 289 226 6,430 17
05/02 98,716 288 317 4,310 -1
05/03 101,286 290 277 2,570 2
05/04 103,302 298 224 2,016 8
05/05 107,602 315 325 4,300 17
05/06 112,068 343 254 4,466 28
05/07 116,319 369 355 4,251 26
Let's talk peak numbers since the pandemic began:
Peak number of tests per day was back on April 25th when 18,703 tests were reported.
Peak number of deaths per day was back on April 22nd when 34 deaths were reported.
Peak number of cases per day was YESTERDAY when 355 new cases were reported.
Oddly, outside of April 22nd when there were 34 deaths, and April 21st when there were 31, the only other days with more than 20 deaths were May 6th and 7th. Another odd data point: There were 6,430 tests reported on May 1st. 4th highest total outside of April 25th (18,703), April 29th (9,464), and April 14th (7,881). Again, as we don't know how long these tests are taking to process, all we can do is presume there is that SOME kind of lag between tests reported, cases reported, and new deaths. I found an article from April 20th that stated the average processing time for a test is 72 hours, but that some tests could take "sometimes up to a week" before results are reported.
It
*seems* that either we haven't hit our real peak yet or that our case/death reductions have plateaued and are on their way back up. Unless, of course, there's a disconnect between how the different data points are being reported. I'm not sure what to conclude right now. When I first mentioned that new peak in cases back on May 2nd, I said we would want to re-visit in the coming days/week. From the data I can find, our 7 and 14 day averages for cases per day are clearly on their way up and have reach a new peak average. The 7 and 14 day averages for deaths per day are higher than they were two weeks ago, and are fairly close to their previous peak.
Our testing, however, is only marginally up over the last 14 day average (and still includes April 25th's 19k test dump) )and the 7 day average seems flat outside of a small peak around April 30th - May 2nd. That small peak represents a 7 day average period where we were testing about 1000-2000 more people per day than the current 7 day average period. That said, it can definitely be noticed that we've gone from a 14 day moving average of 2000-2500 tests per day up until April 25th to closer to 4000 tests per day now. Yet, somehow, until the past week, our peak cases per day were occurring around April 8th - 15th. One explanation is that during our earlier peak in cases a higher percentage of people were testing positive and now the % positive rate is lower. Can't 100% prove that as Alabama doesn't release that data, and the April 25th test dump is kind of skewing our testing averages, but it may be true.
One thing that I have really started to pick up on is that deaths lag cases by 5-14 days. That is borne out by the recent surge in cases we had starting around May 1st and the ensuing sharp increases in deaths to the upper 20s. Unfortunately, our cases counts have accelerated even more since May 1st, so we're probably looking at meeting or exceeding our old deaths per day peaks in the coming week or two. Ultimately, it doesn't look like we're seeing a reduction in cases or deaths. If anything, both are on an upward trend. I hope Ivey's recent relaxation of the stay-at-home order was the right thing to do. The good news is that if we make it through the next few weeks without an even sharper uptick in deaths, cases, and hospitalizations, we might be able to say we've reached a peak as long as testing keeps up. As of today, however, the COVID situation in Alabama seems to be as serious as it has ever been.
www.sciencemag.org
